<p>Well I bring up this question because many people always compare their scores (gpa +sat1) to the average gpa of lets say UC Davis as an example. </p>
<p>A student with 3.44 UC gpa and 1700 SATs would really be a reach for this school. Seems like that right?</p>
<p>Well I received this introductory to the UC system booklet that lays down the numbers people have and who gets accepted. For example 4.00+ 93.4% accepted. 3.3-3.69 41.3% get accepted. Also according to this pamplet, this student with a 1700 SAT actually has 57% chance of getting in. Since this booklet comes directly from the UC system, I would assume it was accurate. </p>
<p>If I do my math right averaging GPA with SAT scores (of course neglecting other considerations in admission policies) this student has around a 50% of getting into Davis. </p>
<p>From what at first glance appears to be a reach because of the high averages, now seems to be a match to me. Please correct me if I am wrong in assuming this student is a clear match for this school by just looking at numbers. </p>
<p>This is flawed reasoning. Why? Because having such stats doesn’t mean that you have x% change of getting in. In order for that to be so, admissions need to be a random event. They are not. As such, you can’t base your chances on what % have gotten in with that in the past (you’d also need to factor in many, many other things, none of which is random). This same flawed logic is applied to overall acceptance rates; that simply isn’t how it works.</p>
<p>However, based on those percentages, you can assume that some of them simply got in with such stats. But I wouldn’t say it’d be a good idea to place your bets on 57%; that alone is about a slight reach.</p>
<p>Like I said, I am only talking numberwise. I was giving really rough estimates and was trying to create a realistic scenario. Realistically, the UCs look primarily at numbers and do not operate as do private schools. Although UC schools like to see that you are involved with something, they do not really care if you won the nobel peace prize like Harvard might. </p>
<p>My point that I am trying to make is that people on this board will say this person is a match at best for schools such as UCR. Although the Average gpa at Riverside is 3.59, clearly above this persons gpa, 90% of applicants with his gpa got admitted last year. This would almost seem to be a safety. </p>
<p>My hypothesis: People who are chancing fellow CC members are comparing their stats to the college’s admitted freshmen numbers. These numbers tend to be higher than the average student they accept because so many students pull up the average scores because UCR is their safety, whereas the lowest GPA considered is 3.0.</p>
<p>Hey, kyledavid80, I have a question for you personally. Are you working under UC system? You are rather expert when it comes to UC’s (btw, you chanced me three times on my post, thx). You practically dominate UC chance thread too. Just wondering haha</p>
<p>But that is the average of admitted students. Not all admitted students attend UCD. Some may use UCD as a safety. So yes people with stats below average do get in. The UCSD adcom explained that to me on the phone.</p>
<p>the whole UC system is BS when it comes to reporting stats. I can say with 100% confidence that the ludicrous school rankings system is completely flawed. There’s no way that 94% of people that go to UCR are in the top 10% of their class. </p>
<p>I think they take the gpa distributions of all schools in california and make one super one where they create their ranking system. Im barely in the top 30% of my class and i guarantee if i applied to UCR, i would be getting a nice scholarship as easily the top 10% of the applicants their, probably more like top 5%</p>