What will the cut off for the national merit be for the psat this year?

Does anyone have an estimate of the score that you will need to get to get the national merit? I live in Maryland, which the cut off was 223 last year. But what will it be for the new psat?

If the usual cut-off is where the top X% of scorers hit, then when the new version’s numbers get crunched it will be set at that % level.

Last cycle, I plotted all the cutoffs, by state, for all the years of data available. I observed that the cutoffs for populous states w a statistical meaningful dataset size (that includes MD) tend to stay within a reasonably defined scatter band.

Since last year’s cutoffs were on the low side within the scatterband, my prediction is that this year the scores will fall on the higher side.

Keep in mind that I’m terrible at picking stock market trends.

keep in mind the PSAT redesign. who knows what will happen this time around.