DS24 has three reach schools he would like to apply to: Hamilton, Wesleyan and Vassar. Using his specific stats, Collegevine puts his chances at Wesleyan jumping from 19% to 32% if he applies ED I. Vassar increases from 21% to 26%, and Hamilton increases from 14% to 19%.
He is within range for all three in terms of rigor, GPA and SAT scores, but we all know that means very little these days. His ECs and overall profile is more artsy, and if you met him you would say “Oh, that’s a Wesleyan/Vassar kid”. But he LOVES Hamilton.
His original plan was to ED I at Wesleyan, and if that didn’t work out ED II at Vassar. But then we visited Hamilton, and he is newly smitten.
I think Hamilton will be a far reach no matter when he applies–but is there an advantage to moving that one into the number one ED slot? Even if it means losing out on the ability to apply ED II to either Wesleyan or Vassar?
We do have a solid list of targets and likelies that he would be happy attending. But these are his “dream big” options.
He can ED II if ED I to Hamilton doesn’t work out, but he wouldn’t be able to ED II to both Vassar and Wesleyan. So by choosing to ED I to Hamilton he is forfeiting the ability to ED II to one of his other top picks, where his chances of a positive outcome may be higher.
I would suggest looking up the common data set for each of the three schools and look at section C21. You can see exactly how many students were offered ED and figure out what percentage of the class they fill in ED rounds.
Also search for the student newspaper articles about the previous incoming class.
IMO, ED I should go to the number one school on your child’s list. If that’s Hamilton, let him take his shot. If it’s a toss up between the three, as you noted, Wesleyan is the most likely statistically.
I believe your son should hesitate in applying EDI to his first-choice school only if that school is objectively unattainable. Since this does not appear to be the case here, it seems a strategy more complex than applying EDI to Hamilton would be counterproductive.
Has he visited Wesleyan or Vassar? My daughter visited Vassar before applying and hated it. The tour was a mess. School and students were meh. Town was not fun. She chose not to apply. She also visited Wesleyan on an admitted students’ day (WesFest) and loved it. It was dynamic and fun, and Middletown was pretty nice.
She ultimately chose to go to Barnard (her top pick), but Wesleyan was second on the preference list.
#1 - especially if you are using an ED. As you say - spot on @foodle
My kid was all in on JMU, Elon, and Richmond - and after visiting, decided not to apply. And she did apply to Miami Ohio - and after visiting, realized it wasn’t right for her.
If you’re potentially binding yourself to a school, you need to visit first.
You can’t get a sense of fit, vibe, or anything from anecdotes or pictures, etc.
Assuming that he has decided that all three of these schools are perfect fits for him on paper, I’d say that he should try to do a long weekend 3-4 day visit in September/October to each one (by himself, without a parent), staying in the dorms with a student, eating in the dining halls, and sitting in on a few classes on Fri/Mon, and then decide which is him ED1, which is his ED2, and which is his RD. BTW, he should also do this for a couple of matches and a couple of his safeties, just to be sure that he has a safety and a match that he really does want to attend. If necessary, after he has acceptances in hand (if his EDs don’t pan out), he can make final choice visits in April.
That ED1 should be used for the school that he really, really wants to attend, and that you know that you can afford, so that if they take him, there is only joy and no disappointment. Don’t be so concerned about playing the odds that he winds up throwin’ away his shot (heehee).
He should absolutely ED to his first choice school if he is within range. Makes no sense to pick a second choice to game the system. It is great that his second and third choice have ED2 which gives him a second chance and totally agree with @foodle about visiting those other schools. S24 was meh on Vassar and absolutely hated Wesleyan, we walked out on the tour. I think they both have a different vibe than Hamilton.
We have visited all three campuses, and he enjoyed all three.
He is a match on paper for all three, and can afford any of the three.
@parentologist I like you r suggestion for a deeper-dive visit, but I don’t think many schools allow for overnight visits for prospective students these days. Maybe we can find an “unofficial” host at each from our social networks…
I’d have him apply ED to the school that is his clear #1. Why lose the potential of attending your favorite school for slightly better odds at a school you don’t like as much?
When you say he is “within range,” are you using the most recent class of data, and do you mean he is closer to the 25th percentile, or is he closer to the 75th? Are his ECs and other achievements on par with what kids from his school had this past year who were accepted at those schools?
Hamilton’s acceptance rate was around 11% last year, so is probably in the single digits for 2023. I would talk to his school’s college counselor to really understand his chances at each school given his rigor, grades, approximate rank (even if it’s not published, they will extrapolate it from other current and previous applicants from his school), and the high school’s success at each in the past.
Unless you are factoring specific data for his high school, CollegeVine will be more of a swag at numbers. You are better off using the most recent CDS and/or freshman class profile and the high school counselor’s input.
Telling kids to ED to their top choice only makes sense if the top choice is objectively attainable, as another poster said. If your research finds that he is on the low end of Hamilton’s accepted range for stats and that his high school doesn’t have much success there, he will have to make a decision whether to use ED for what is still a tiny probability of acceptance, or use it somewhere where it would have more impact, as long as he believes he would be happy at that school.
Thanks for this thoughtful reply, which gets at the crux of my query. I have looked at CDS from 2022-2023, our school’s Naviance data, and Collegevine chancing calculators to determine whether he is “in range” . (I should say that Collegevine chancing calculator pretty accurately predicted my older child’s results last year so I do see value in that particular tool)
I think given Hamilton’s very very low acceptance rate I think that even a seemingly qualified applicant has a tiny probability of acceptance—and that’s what makes me wonder if it is worth it for him to go for that or use his ED options in two schools that he really really likes, where he has a higher probability of success.
Ah, I found that post. But now I have another question. Hamilton seems to be the outlier, a small college in a tiny town. What exactly was the “wow” factor?