Which California Public Schools do I have a chance with? History or Political Science Major 3.23 GPA

Hi! I am an incoming senior in high school living in California. I had just calculated my UC/CSU and I have a 3.14 unweighted GPA and a 3.23 weighted GPA. I had taken the SAT and ACT. I received a 1190 on the SAT and a 25 on the ACT. I will be retaking the SAT in August and I have been studying a lot for it. I am hoping you guys could recommend some colleges for me. I am looking to stay in California (but this is flexible) and I am looking at a History or Political Science major. I am leaning towards teaching Social Science in high school for a career, but I am not sure if I am 100% set on that. I am not too picky with which colleges, but I live in the Bay Area so Northern California is preferred to be close to family. Would I have a chance at UC Merced or UCSC? Which state schools do you recommend? I will post more stats below. Any feedback is appreciated. Also, if anyone has any information on good history or political science programs in California I would love to hear it. Thank you so much!

UC/CSU Weighted GPA: 3.23
UC/CSU Unweighted GPA: 3.14
10th Grade History - Honors World History (A’s)
11th Grade History- AP US History (B’s) I still have not received my scores but I believe I received a 4, maybe 5.
12th Grade History- I am signed up for AP US Government
SAT: 1190 (will retake)
ACT: 25

For the Cal states all but Cal Poly SLO use the eligibility index to rank applicants by major.
(CSU GPA x800) + (SAT Math + CR)= (3.23 x800) + (1190) = 3774 for SAT OR (3.23 x200) + (25 x10)= 896 for ACT

I think all the Cal states with the following exceptions can range from Safety to Match schools for you.
Exceptions: Cal Poly SLO, San Diego State, Cal State Long Beach, Cal State Fullerton and possibly Cal Poly Pomona which would be Low-High Reach schools based on Eligibility index.

Sacramento state would be a good option due to the proximity to the state capital. SJSU might also be worth looking at.

For the UC’s, they are very GPA focused so your GPA will be a hinderance. I see only UC Riverside and Merced as possibilities.

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.00-3.39

UCB/UCLA/UCSD: 1%
UCI/UCSB: 2%
UCD: 4%
UCSC: 18%
UCR: 38%
UCM: 67%

Merced is your best shot for UCs but the GPA is really low. San Jose State is actually good in History/PoliSci. You will need to calculate your CSU index.

You should focus on the Cal States that appeal to you most, with the exception of those that are very difficult to get into (e.g. SLO and SDSU). In terms of the UCs, I think the only ones that you have a shot at are Merced and Riverside, but Riverside will be a reach. UCSC became very difficult for admissions this year, and I think it would be an unlikely high reach.

I think - unless you are ELC, even UCM is pretty unlikely. I think you have a good shot at most of the CSUs except CPSLO, SDSU . and CSULB. another 50 SAT points would probably get you into LB but, not the others. Since you note a preference for N Cal, Sac has the capitol - but also look at Chico, Sonoma and SJSU

The formula for the CSU index is CSU GPA *800 + SAT. - yours is about 3770.

Normally I wouldn’t recommend it, but Sac State seems like a good one to apply to. The proximity to the capital of one of the worlds largest economies (CA would be something like #6/7 in the world if we were a country) seems like a no brainer!