Probably pretty close. Only about 25% of the admitted students receive them, so don’t worry if you didn’t. And there are applications they probably haven’t even looked at yet.
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Agreed! My son just got one today. We’re out of state as well and had no idea this was a thing. I almost didn’t look at it when I got the mail bc we keep getting junk mail from some of the colleges that my son applied to. A couple of them keep sending him mail asking him to apply… again 
If it hadn’t been for the handwritten message, I may not have looked at it. At this point, I’m expecting important news to come in an envelope or by email. So it was a nice surprise for sure!
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Hang in there! Our son applied regular decision (in 2019) and is graduating from WM in May. No postcard received! It truly is only a percentage that receive them.
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Thanks. Do you think they are sent mostly to high stat, but also hooked candidates (legacy, 1st gen, URM)?
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Mostly higher stats. My daughter is legacy and never received one.
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We are none of those categories, no hooks or legacy.
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My daughter who is high stats didn’t get one last year but she did get in. Hang in there and definitely don’t take it as a bad sign.
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My best guess is they (AOs) each get to write a certain amount of them and they randomly select from high stat kids. That’s just a guess though.
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This is the blog that explains it. Don’t stress if you don’t get one, although it would be nice not to have to wait another month+ for a decision. My daughters friend (in-state) just got one on Friday so I think they are still sending, but again, its a small percentage sent.
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My son is a bit of both of those—high stats and URM. We’re new to W&M so not exactly sure what the typical admitted student has, but he applied with a 4.45 & 1520 and he has some leadership, plus natl merit commended and some other honors. He took an aggressive curriculum since he’ll be majoring in physics.
But he also applied on the very last day possible after getting the extended deadline. So it’s hard to say 
My Dd has pretty good stats and ECs. She wrote her WM essay and it was very strong and really showcased her intellect and curiosity.
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Yes, my impression from the posts I’m seeing is that they seem to value strong applicants but I’m sure they looked at their whole application file, not just stats. But if you read the blog, they make it sound like there’s a randomness to how they chose those top applicants since they can’t get to all of them this early.
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I think it’s prob random and which apps they liked.
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My daughter got the “likely” postcard, submitted application 12/30/22. For reference, she is OOS, IB diploma student, GPA 4.64, SAT 1520, National Hispanic Recognition, National Merit Commended, regional and national awards, lots of volunteering (at one organization), Year-round sports 20 hrs a week, summer job x 2 yrs, and an internship.
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Applied 12/20, no postcard. Kinda upset but hoping it doesn’t mean anything.
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Another sad trip to the mailbox today!
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My non-postcard-receiving '19 applicant just sent me his official email from WM about his diploma wording for '23 WM graduation. So do NOT fret. I am telling you … while nice to receive … MANY do NOT receive them. Don’t sweat it!!!
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eCap and Oglebee - can you please share stats if you don’t mind and are you in-state? Also EDII or RD?
Sure, my son has
3.98 UW/ 5.19 W
1390 SAT
IB Diploma, NHS, Chinese HS, National Recognition Scholar, Three season Varsity sport & captain (xc & track), many vol in and out of school, PT jobs, plays guitar in band he started
OOS - NJ
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Great stats. What is nat rec scholar
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