You can trust that they’re telling you what has happened in the past.
That’s not a guarantee of what will happen in the future.
So, again, absolutely apply if that’s where you want to go. But throw in some safeties as well. Lots of SUNYs are easier to get into than Buffalo; apply to some of them.
My son was recently admitted into UB’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (Fall 2019 Entering Class) with an intended major in Aerospace Engineering. He decided to decline UB’s offer, but was accepted with a 4.0/GPA and 1290 SAT. Hope that helps with your research.
We have no way of knowing because we don’t work in their admissions office. I think I’d consider it a reach. You can apply there but make sure to apply to some safeties too.