<p>If I had a dog in this hunt, I'd open my state summary from 2010, 2011, and 2012. Looking at TN, I see that there were 795 more PSAT junior testers in October 2012 vs. October 2011. I then look at the # of students who scored in the 75-80 range for each 3 sections, as well as the 70-74 range for all 3 sections. There are 70 more students in the 75-80 range for CR, 38 more in the 75-80 range for M, and 33 more in the 75-80 range for W. There are 206 more students in the 70-74 range for CR, 133 LESS students in the 70-74 range for M, and 241 more students in the 70-74 range for Writing. </p>
<p>Looking at the means for each section, TN's CR mean dropped by .2, M stayed the same, and W went up by .8. So a total combined rise in mean of .6</p>
<p>Since I know of no wholesale rise in the number of graduating seniors in TN, my gut is to say that TN's cutoff may go up by a point or two next year, due mostly to the rise of numbers of higher achieving students taking the test. </p>
<p>To let you know how this looks compared to last year, when we were all confident that there would be a substantial drop in cutoff points, the change in TN's mean scores from 2010 to 2011 were: CR dropped 1.3, M dropped 1.1, and W dropped 1.6. So a total combined drop in mean of 4 full points in October 2011. </p>
<p>Looking at VA, the scores will go up from last year (217) - I would guess back to the 220 it was in 2010 - hopefully not 221 (220 is the highest it has been in recent years). Means don’t help much as they went up from 2010 to 2011 but the cutoff dropped 3 points. Number of highest achievers 75-80 is about where it was in 2010 overall, 70-74 group is much higher. May come down to where they need to split it to get the right number of people to qualify (i.e., XXX qualifies a little less than allotted but too many kids got XXX-1 to include all of them).</p>
<p>Using this methodology, it looks like the CA cutoff may very well go up. Percents went up in all 75-80 pt categories and 2 of 3 in the 70-74 categories; overall mean scores also went up slightly. Maybe the ‘wildcard’ for CA is the total number of HS graduates that they will end up using for allocating the # of NMSF’s to the state, since our state could have more population variances that some others.</p>
<p>So, roughly speaking, if the combined rise of the 3 sections in OH is .8 between 2011 and 2012, and there were roughly 400ish LESS students taking the test in OH this year, then we should probably expect a rise in the cutoff of maybe 1 point from last year? Less kids scored in the 70-80 range in Math in 2012, but slightly more scored 70-80 in CR, and significantly more scored 70-80 in Writing in 2012…</p>
<p>Ugh! I am going to guess that NJ will be higher than the 221 cutoff from the 2011 PSAT. In 2012, the mean scores were higher in each category, and more 2012 kids scored in the 75-80 range in all 3 categories. When figuring in the 70-80 range for all 3 sections, 2011 kids were only slightly higher in math and the 2012 kids were higher in reading and writing for that 70-80 range…</p>
<p>Unfortunately, all we can do is look at the data and guestimate based on prior years and patterns. Since the national 99th % held steady this year at 211, I suspect that cutoff scores won’t have a wholesale rise or fall like we saw last year (when the national 99th % went from 214 in 10/2010 to 211 in 10/2011, and where my state (TN) went from a combined mean of 153.1 in 10/2010 to 149.1 in in 10/2011.) </p>
<p>There’s 50 states. I suggest you look at your individual state using the method in the first post of this thread. I tried to post in an example of mine but it doesn’t hold the format & it’s a mess.</p>
<p>OK. I tried to paste in what I have in my excel chart for TN to show you how I analyzed the TN information. Please note that all the numbers are specific for TN except for the 99% number which is a National number. Hopefully it won’t look too wonky. I’d do the same for your own state in an excel type program so you can see the numbers; this is usually in one straight row across, but can’t fit it that way on CC. </p>
<p>college for many: probably so, but also it’s strongly tied to the highest National 96% and lowest 97% Selection Index Percentile & mean score, reported on page 3 of “Understanding 20XX PSAT/NMSQT Scores” published by the College Board. 2012’s is the same as 2011’s: highest 96% is 200, lowest 97% is 201.</p>
<p>2014classof: you’re looking at total # of students in your state who took the PSAT (did more or less take it compared to the last 2 years?) and how many students are in the 75-80 score group for each test section for your state, and how many students are in the 70-74 score group for each test section for your state. This will be on page 5 & 6. Are there more or less students in those groups compared to last year and the year before? Also take note of the mean score for each section (on the same pages) and add them together, then compare to the last two years. Has the mean gone up, down or stayed the same? </p>
<p>The reason I suggest looking at the 2012 data compared to both 2011 & 2010 is because it’s very easy to see looking at 2011 vs. 2010 why we were so confident in wholesale drops. Then you can compare your local 2012 data to see what kind of movement there is.</p>
<p>My youngest is a senior, so I won’t have to go through this again (actually still waiting for the official NMF notification) but I was absolutely confident in a drop last year. This year a lot of you are going to be waiting till August. Keep your grades up! C’s on transcripts really hurt a lot of kids in the Class of 2013 for NMF.</p>
<p>Yeah, no worries about grades, got a 218 in washington, cutoff was 216 last year, 220 two years ago.
it appears that the mean stayed the same from last year, but the number(and percentage) of high scorers generally went up.
How do you make a guess on how many points the cutoff would change? it seems that it will be going up from the 216 of last year</p>
<p>I m afraid that a rise in the semifinalist cutoff by 1 or 2 points (relative to last years) might be more widespread than people were anticipating. I think many people assumed that since the 99% and 99+% national cutoffs for the Selection Index Percentiles in Understanding 2012 PSAT/NMSQT Scores was unchanged relative to last years cutoff that the state-by-state cutoffs wouldnt (on average) rise. </p>
<p>Unfortunately I think that is wrong. If you read the Understanding 201X PSAT/NMSQT Scores very carefully, you will see that the reporting methodology changed. Before this year, the national Selection Index Percentiles were from a sample of about 80% of the then <em>current</em> years juniors. This year (2012), it appears that they changed how they gathered the statistics. They reported the percentiles from the <em>entire</em> batch of <em>last</em> years juniors. This explains why the reported Selection Index Percentiles hardly shifted from last years report, since the only change was the use of the complete sample instead of a partial sample.</p>
<p>To see the actual trend for this year relative to last year, pull up any of the just released state-by-state reports and look at the national statistics for junior PSAT takers on pages 5 and 6. The number of national juniors who scored 75-80 is quite a bit higher than last years for all three sections. The number who scored 70-74 is higher than last years for Critical Reading and Writing.</p>
<p>I havent looked at the just released state-by-state summaries very carefully, but I think it will turn out that the 2012 cutoffs for most states will be closer to generally high cutoffs for 2010 rather than the more normal cutoffs for 2011.</p>
<p>also, from 2009 test to 2010 test, the mean went up .1, the total test takers went up, and the number of high scorers went down, how did the cutoff jump 2 points?</p>
<p>When I click on the link and then click on my state, it lists the vast majority of students having indicated that the year they will graduate high school is 2013. That number should be 2014 for juniors??? What am I not getting?</p>
<p>Nice catch j9987sm! No idea how that affects things. The state level reports haven’t changed too, have they? </p>
<p>Hoggirl: I see that too, but the heading is 2012-2013 COLLEGE-BOUND HIGH SCHOOL JUNIORS. I looked at the 2011 state report and it has the same year headings on page 4 as the 2012 state report. I think it’s an oops. </p>
<p>2014: there’s also the element of allocation of the # of NMSF’s by state based on the % of HS graduates. That’s an factor too. </p>
<p>NMSC is not completely transparent about their formula. A number of CC posters have figured out the framework along the way & we just try to plug in the little data that we get to make the wait till August a little less anxious for some students. If only NMSC or College Board would post a selection index percentile & mean score by state besides the national one, this would be an easier task.</p>
<p>^I looked at my state (Arkansas) as well as Tennessee. I, too, thought I was looking at the wrong report. Glad to see RobD saw it, too. I think he is correct - it’s just an oops. I followed the link posted in the original thread then clicked on my state.</p>
<p>ETA: The graduation years are listed on page 4 of the report, I believe.</p>