<p>I take it back! Illinois is wrong as well…maybe there are other mistakes that will make this look better for lower cutoffs!! Ha Ha</p>
<p>@harvester - ha ha. Yeah. I think they just forgot to change all the years!</p>
<p>So, which is more important - the change in the mean or the difference in numbers of scorers in the higher ranges?</p>
<p>If I am doing this correctly, Arkansas’ state mean increased overall by 1.5 solely because of the writing section. The CR and M were wash. There are more high scorers in the 75-80 range across the board. In the 70-74 range, there are more high scorers in CR and W, but fewer in M. Collectively, that should mean the cutoff will increase, correct? The cut-off for the graduating class of 2013 (took the test in the fall of 2011) was 202. The cut-off for the prior year was 205.</p>
<p>One of the reasons I suggest looking at least 3 years of data is so that you can have some historical perspective as to how those changes affect the cutoff. I have the TN data in a spreadsheet going back to the October 2008 test because a) my oldest took the PSAT that year and b) I have an unhealthy need to analyze data 
</p>
<p>But since I do have a job, and a family, and laundry, I regret that I cannot do this for all 50 states.</p>
<p>Hoggirl: based on what you’re reporting, I’d assume a modest rise in cutoff for your state. Don’t forget, most students won’t be in that highest category for all sections. Strong math students may not score at the top for CR, etc. I’d look at what the numbers were from October 2010 (the year there was a big jump in cutoffs across the board) and get a sense where the October 2012 scores fall in comparison to 2010 & 2011.</p>
<p>Thanks RobD! I will do that!</p>
<p>What do you guys think about Texas? I got a 219 in Texas. The cutoff last year was a 216, and the year before was a 219.</p>
<p>This is honestly pretty devastating for me, considering I scored exactly a 212 in Ohio (last years cutoff) and was really banking on no change. Your theory seems solid, but I really hope you’re wrong!</p>
<p>jdaniels - anything can happen and you still have a chance, but in reviewing Ohio’s stats for the past 4 years (cutoffs were 212, 214, 212 and now ?), in my opinion the scores will go up - it may only be 213 rather than the 214 it was for 2010. But, these are just educated guesses based on trends - there isn’t enough data to say anything with any certainty - especially when you are so close.</p>
<p>For those of you trying to estimate the semifinalist cutoff for their state even with the
state-by-state summaries there just isnt enough data to do more than make an educated guess. However, if you want to attempt an estimate I would personally just add the number of students in your state who scored in the 75-80 range for each the 3 sections of the PSAT. Call this total TOT. Then, look at TOT versus the actual semifinalist cutoff for your state for the last few years. If you then look at how the 2012 value of TOT for your state compares to previous years values, you can come up with a guesstimate of this years cutoff for your state.</p>
<p>This is just an estimate it ignores the fact that scores across the 3 sections arent perfectly correlated (though the correlation is pretty high, with a mean pairwise correlation of .75), changes in the number of high school graduates, rounding, etc. It will probably work better for large states vs. small states. The analysis I did for my state (with around a 215 cutoff) shows that the 75-80 range ends up being much more important than the 70-74 range.</p>
<p>Because the semifinalist cutoff is generally in the upper 1% of the selection index distribution, I would really not give too much weight to how the mean scores have shifted. The mean scores are not as useful as the 75-80 counts for understanding how the upper tail of the distribution is shaped those of you who have taken statistics will know that for a normal distribution changes in the standard deviation can be just as important as changes in the mean when trying to determine the location of the upper 1% tail. On top of that, College Boards psychometrics doesnt really force the curve to be well approximated by a normal curve for scores > 210. For all these reasons I would focus on the 75-80 counts (and the 70-74 counts to a lesser extent).</p>
<p>j9987sm - thanks so much for this. For those of us who like to play with the numbers to give some insight (but of course no certainty) it is really helpful.</p>
<p>j9987sm: Thanks so much for your suggested approach. It sounds simple enough that most interested parties can attempt it with a few minutes of research.</p>
<p>If anyone does have an interest I suggest posting what you find out. Here are the data from MN:</p>
<p>Test|# of Top Scores
Year|CR…M…W…TOT|cutoff
2012 298 333 240 871 ?
2011 212 270 177 659 213
2010 267 400 279 946 215
2009 218 363 136 717 213
2008 289 285 175 749 215
2007 231 432 243 906 214</p>
<p>As TOT increases, cutoff should trend upward, too, but the data makes obvious that this is not a perfect method. Still, I estimate MN cutoff for the class of 2014 to be 214-215.</p>
<p>BTW, I suggest going no further back than 2006 because the writing scale was re-set that year to align better with the (then) new SAT Writing section.</p>
<p>Called NMSC to get data on the number of NMSF from my state each year for the past few years - guy was very uncooperative and secretive and only agreed to give me the number for current year. He said they don’t want comparisons among high schools - which they actually release in their annual report and press releases anyway (that is how I know that 146 of the 378 NMSF came from 1 school), so…??? When I pointed out that I couldn’t do that if all I had was one number for the whole state he agreed to give me 1 year. He did say a high school could request the info.</p>
<p>Here is a link to NMSC’s annual report. This appears to be the most recent although it is dated October 2011. On page 9 there is a chart that shows commended and Semifinalists for each state. <a href=“http://www.nationalmerit.org/annual_report.pdf[/url]”>http://www.nationalmerit.org/annual_report.pdf</a></p>
<p>I called NMSC yesterday to inquire about the pub date for the 2011-12 NMSC Annual Report. He said they are in the process of updating the website & it should be up next week.</p>
<p>Does anybody have any insight on how the Kentucky scores might fluctuate this year?</p>
<p>Thanks to everyone who has posted the past couple of months, I have learned a lot about the National Merit program. My D is in the ballpark (based upon past few years in PA), but of course I am learning that shifts can happen.</p>
<p>Someone posted a link to the Annual Report, so I pulled the data and found it interesting that state by state is not closer in many cases for Participants to SemiFinalists ratio, which was what I understood the breakdown to based upon.</p>
<p>Any insights? Also, from the gurus of the past, any insights regarding PA’s projection compared to the last couple of years?</p>
<pre><code>% Part Comm+SF SF SF-Part
</code></pre>
<p>AL 0.97% 0.86% 1.27% 0.302
AK 0.14% 0.22% 0.26% 0.119
AZ 1.15% 1.26% 2.10% 0.947
AR 0.43% 0.32% 0.88% 0.456
CA 11.21% 15.36% 12.25% 1.038
CO 1.32% 1.38% 1.57% 0.252
CT 2.03% 2.03% 1.32% (0.708)
DE 0.40% 0.29% 0.28% (0.120)
DC 0.26% 0.53% 0.32% 0.056
FL 4.53% 3.74% 5.31% 0.780
GA 2.67% 2.62% 2.40% (0.276)
HI 0.48% 0.40% 0.39% (0.084)
ID 0.37% 0.29% 0.51% 0.138
IL 3.04% 4.10% 4.25% 1.212
IN 2.44% 1.69% 2.00% (0.438)
IO 0.57% 0.75% 1.17% 0.597
KS 0.65% 0.79% 0.97% 0.322
KT 0.74% 0.78% 1.34% 0.598
LA 0.84% 0.74% 1.16% 0.321
ME 0.86% 0.45% 0.48% (0.382)
MD 2.94% 3.40% 2.00% (0.935)
MA 3.28% 4.33% 2.18% (1.105)
MI 2.23% 2.09% 3.49% 1.261
MN 1.50% 1.80% 1.95% 0.453
MS 0.41% 0.36% 0.80% 0.394
MO 0.90% 1.39% 2.11% 1.213
MT 0.29% 0.18% 0.35% 0.063
NE 0.42% 0.46% 0.66% 0.242
NV 0.47% 0.27% 0.52% 0.051
NH 0.54% 0.49% 0.44% (0.101)
NJ 4.61% 5.47% 3.41% (1.200)
NM 0.40% 0.27% 0.61% 0.205
NY 9.74% 7.42% 5.87% (3.873)
NC 2.95% 2.49% 2.61% (0.342)
ND 0.13% 0.07% 0.20% 0.069
OH 3.45% 3.15% 3.93% 0.486
OK 0.50% 0.57% 1.15% 0.646
OR 1.04% 1.09% 1.12% 0.072
PA 5.01% 4.59% 4.29% (0.715)
RI 0.40% 0.27% 0.34% (0.053)
SC 1.22% 0.74% 1.32% 0.097
SD 0.18% 0.13% 0.26% 0.085
TE 0.96% 1.29% 1.71% 0.754
TX 12.11% 8.16% 8.24% (3.872)
UT 0.34% 0.38% 1.01% 0.666
VT 0.28% 0.23% 0.26% (0.023)
VA 3.46% 3.38% 2.52% (0.945)
WA 2.05% 2.59% 2.11% 0.054
WV 0.27% 0.17% 0.48% 0.212
WI 1.36% 1.24% 1.99% 0.626
WY 0.11% 0.07% 0.18% 0.070
OTH 1.36% 2.86% 1.67% 0.317
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.000</p>
<p>PAParent123, Not sure if this is what you are asking but…the relationship is to the number of high school graduates not to the number of test takers. In other words, if PA has 5% of the nation’s high school graduates, then 5% of the 16,000 semifinalists will be from PA roughly.</p>
<p>Harvester,</p>
<p>Thank you…so the number that they are reporting in the annual report cannot be for projected graduates at this point.</p>
<p>Can someone do CT? From my own analysis it looks like it’ll go up, anyone know by how much? Can I be optimistic with a 220? </p>
<p>Here’s 2010 (cutoff 220): <a href=“http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/CT_2010_05_02_01.pdf[/url]”>http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/CT_2010_05_02_01.pdf</a>
2011 (cutoff 218): <a href=“http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/CT_12_05_02_01.pdf[/url]”>http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/CT_12_05_02_01.pdf</a>
2012 : <a href=“http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/CT_13_05_02_01.pdf[/url]”>http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/CT_13_05_02_01.pdf</a></p>
<p>The top scores are similar to the year of the highest cutoff, which was 2010, and the cutoff was 220. However, they’re slightly higher than they were that year, although there are a lot more graduating seniors. </p>
<p>Also notable: 2009 stats (cutoff 219): <a href=“http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/CT_10_05_02_01.pdf[/url]”>http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/CT_10_05_02_01.pdf</a></p>
<p>I looked at these, in between 2009 and 2010 there was an increase of 1 point (from 219-220), but a decrease in overall mean, and percentage of the two brackets of highest scorers. So, looking at the data, you would think it would have gone down. Do you think I may have a cushion of two points?</p>