As others have said your methodology is indeed wrong. The schools look at far more than just SAT scores. With many of the schools, the admissions process is closer to “okay this student’s SAT score is fine, now lets look at the rest of the application.” </p>
<p>You can confirm this by looking at the test scores reported by the admitting class of these schools. Stanford had the lowest admit rate of the USNWR top 20 this year, so using your methodology all the admits would have top SAT scores, yet >20% were below 700 on any of the individual subject tests, which corresponds to below 93-96th percentile. I was accepted to Stanford several years ago, while only scoring in the 46th percentile on my verbal SAT.</p>
<p>The methodology is wrong because the “tippy-top” schools want to build diverse classes. They evaluate applicants’ entire application, not just their standardized tests (ACT & SAT). They accept thousands of students who are below the top 2%. Also, tens of thousands of top 2% testers choose to go to state schools.</p>
<p>Officially, UCs do not use class rank at all; they use high school courses, grades, and GPA, although their consideration in context of what was available at the high school creates an indirect correlation with class rank. UCs also use a holistic comprehensive review process, although it is designed more for consistency, repeatability, and scalability than the holistic review processes that some private schools are said to use. But since the UCs are not at the point where they have more “near maximum academic credential” applicants than admission places, the academic credentials will show a more meaningful distinction between those admitted and rejected.</p>
<p>In contrast, the CSUs just calculate a formula of GPA and test scores, admitting applicants from the top of the ranking of the formula into each major until the major or campus is filled to capacity.</p>
<p>Both our kids were admitted to all the schools they applied to. Colleges that consider much more than grades & test scores, including top schools that meet 100% and don’t offer merit aid. Scores are important, but only one part of application.
We found essays & recommendations to be weighted more heavily.</p>
<p>I didn’t get the sense the OP thought “admissions are all about test scores.” He was just making a point about how big the pie of high-test-scorers is, compared to the number of seats at top schools.</p>
<p>I agree. I believe the OP was trying to get a handle on how many other highly qualified applicants there are along her/his well qualified kid.</p>
<p>A similar stat to bring this home is that there are about 30,000 high schools in the US … so 30k vals, 30k paper editors, 30k, first violins, etc. </p>
<p>Punch line there are a ton of very qualified applicants out there. I interviewed for my school for a few years and was amazed with the quality of the kids who were accepted … and saddened by the amazing candidates who were not accepted. Of the kids who I interviewed easily 80% were qualified while 20-25% were accepted.</p>
<p>Thank you for that link! I forwarded it on to my middle son so he can bask a little in his accomplishment. FWIW, he’s in the 100% CP (yes, they do round to 100% on these actual stats) and is one who never cared to apply to tippy top schools. He’s at a very nice school (top 30 something), doing extremely well, with nice merit aid and opportunities that he likely wouldn’t be able to get (as a Freshman) elsewhere. No regrets at all on his part. He’s not the only one with his scores there either. He has peers.</p>
<p>Find the school that fits the student - not the school that fits the scores. (Acknowledging that scores are part of a fit.) Popular rankings are almost meaningless IMO - not 100% meaningless, but certainly not the solid foundations many choose to give them.</p>
<p>Pizzagirl is correct. I was just a little taken aback by the fact that my D is in such rarified air and still has tens of thousands of kids with better stats!</p>
<p>BTW, my D has a 4.0 uwGPA, all honors and AP courses, great EC’s including two varsity sports and lots of volunteering. She is a terrific writer so I’m pretty confident her essays will be great. I also feel comfortable that her LOR’s will be top notch.</p>
<p>I just make a broad assumption that this will be the case with the vast majority of kids at the very top of the standard test scorer’s.</p>
<p>What I told both my D’s was that their test scores and GPAs made them legitimate buyers of lottery tickets into the super reach schools they applied to. Beyond that, I told them not to expect to get in, but that they had as good a chance as most. And if you don’t get at least 1 no, then you probably didn’t reach high enough. </p>
<p>Every year at this time, newspapers across the country run stories about little Johnny with the 36 ACT and perfect GPA who didn’t get into Stanford or Yale and OMG if he didn’t get in, then who did? The reality is that as 3togo says, we all live in one of 30,000 bubbles and unless you’re on CC or the like, it’s hard to imagine how much competition there is from across the U.S. and internationally as well. Here’s one of this year’s stories: [Twin</a> Cities students find all A?s aren?t automatic ticket to college | StarTribune.com](<a href=“http://www.startribune.com/local/west/207649641.html?page=1&c=y&refer=y]Twin”>http://www.startribune.com/local/west/207649641.html?page=1&c=y&refer=y) </p>
<p>I was told years ago that there was a testing threshold that if you fell below, would probably be an automatic “no” but that as long as you passed that bar, then you were evaluated holistically against the rest of the applicant pool (I’m talking for Top 20 schools here.) I feel like it was 32 ACT and 2200 SAT, but that may need to be bumped up a little now vs. 2010. But when you have 30,000 applicants vying for 2,000 freshman spots (or less) and the school has a high yield, it’s still uphill. Adcoms at Ivy’s say they could fill their classes successfully many times over from their applicant pool. Even if only 80% of Top 20 school applicants are legitimately at the level to be admitted that’s still an awful lot of talented, motivated students who are told no. </p>
<p>One thing that helped me get a sense of where my kiddos fell was calculating their AI-Academic Index. I’ll try to find the data about what the admit rates were for different AI ranges; of course, technically that’s just for Ivy athletic recruits, but I know I read something somewhere about how it’s used for non-athletes as well. </p>
<p>Our kiddos almost all land in a place where they do well and find strong faculty in their area of interest. And knowing there are so many talented students across the country makes you realize that your child can find their academic peers in many, many schools :)</p>
<p>I think the OP’s realization is a valuable one: people need to realize that even if their kid is the smartest kid in the local high school in decades, or ever, there are lots of really smart, accomplished kids graduating from high school each year. So even the most accomplished kids need to ignore people who say “you’ll get in anywhere” and have an application strategy that doesn’t just focus on the very most selective schools.</p>
<p>And as I’ve said a bunch of times, with shifting numbers, in my opinion there are about 100 colleges in the top 20.</p>
<p>^^^What Hunt said. D2 got no’s from both her super reach schools, which didn’t surprise US because I’m blunt and pragmatic BUT it has taken the wind out of a couple of our junior parent friends whose kiddos are aiming high next year. As one said to my DH “if your Mensa kid didn’t get in, who does?” Which we know isn’t an accurate statement and we never had that attitude. But given their kiddo’s dream school is a top 10, and I know their transcript is not what D2’s was, I’m glad we were able to give them a reality check. </p>
<p>This is why the CC mantra “LOVE THY SAFETY” is so important. Even more so in 2013 than in 2010.</p>
<p>The overarching message is…craft your college list carefully and realistically. Between the vast amount of insight gleaned from this site and careful inspection of the CDS’s, we feel pretty comfortable with our list.</p>
<p>I also agree with RobD. You gotta get rejected by at least two school or you didn’t aim high enough!!</p>
<p>If I didn’t know better I’d think that you were eavesdropping at our house because that is almost word for word what I told my son at the beginning of the process. Going in with " eyes wide open" and realistic expectations makes it less dramatic as we’ve seen from some of our neighbors who are using lessons from their experiences 30 years ago…now very outdated.</p>
<p>Some top schools, such as Bowdoin, are test optional. A woman can also consider the top women’s colleges which considerably changes the numbers.</p>
<p>I wasn’t going to post the following link because of the way some posters behaved in the past, but what the hey, I’m sure this is a much more mature bunch. Here are the acceptances from a couple years ago at the local high school (it is public data). Please, this is not a scientifically precise table of data so try to refrain from nit-picking specific data points it or commenting on specific applicants (even though it is done by number)</p>
<p>You will see that SAT matters some but most places it isn’t a precise predictor of anything. For the UCs, GPA is probably a better predictior, as can been seen by the scattergrams in the back.</p>
<p>Primarily for a rough idea and entertainment folks.</p>
<p>This sounds familiar. What I told my kid was that there is some combination of scores and grades that get you out of the big pool (30,000 apps) and into the small one (10,000). But after that, the colleges basically throw the numbers away and stock their entering classes based on other characteristics. When he asked me specifically if I thought he could get into College X, I always answered, “I’m not sure, but I think with your profile, if you apply to six colleges like College X, you’ll get into at least two, and then you’ll have a choice.” </p>
<p>But I also agree with the point, as amply demonstrated in the Minneapolis article, that not only do many parents not understand this but lots of school administrators don’t – and that’s where expectations get mismanaged.</p>
BUT it has taken the wind out of a couple of our junior parent friends whose kiddos are aiming high next year. As one said to my DH “if your Mensa kid didn’t get in, who does?” Which we know isn’t an accurate statement and we never had that attitude. But given their kiddo’s dream school is a top 10, and I know their transcript is not what D2’s was, I’m glad we were able to give them a reality check. </p>