<p>^^^I’m with TracyVP in that I believe the “top” is subjective. You decide what your own idea of top is and then just run with it.</p>
<p>I don’t think the number of auditions that a school processes is useful data if you are using it to think about acceptance odds. Number of auditions is an arbitrary decision that a school can make and change in any given year by adding prescreens, more auditors, less auditors etc. They get to decide how many they are willing to process and hope the demand is there to fill up the slots.</p>
<p>But come to think about it, accept/yield or number of available seats doesn’t really give you a good sense of the acceptance odds either unless you assume that there is a similar number of truly competitive (talented) prospects in every audition pool at every school. Is there?</p>
<p>Leaving academics, essays, type etc. out of it for a moment, if we took the entire universe of MTs auditioning in any given year and could magically group them into “top tier talent”, “second tier talent”, “and everyone else who is either not competitively talented or simply ill prepared”. </p>
<p>Do the same number (number - not necessarily the same person) of “top tier” prospects audition at every school? Could be but how would you know? By way of extreme and deliberately ludicrous example: My daughter who I consider to be legitimately competitive didn’t audition at every school that is hot on CC. So when she wasn’t at a particular school, did somebody just like her take her place to keep the truly competitive talent pool at an even number? If yes, then perhaps you can calculate “odds of acceptance” by knowing how many people a school will accept but if no one of similar talent took her place, then the odds got better for everyone else who auditioned. </p>
<p>NYU and U Mich are very hot schools. NYU has 64 MT spots, U Mich has 20. If the same number of top tier talent auditions at both programs, then you could conclude that U Mich is the harder school to get into. But if 3x as many of the top tier talent students audition at NYU than they do at U Mich, the odds are the same. Which is the case? I don’t know. How could we possibly know?</p>
<p>Now take a school that nobody ever talks about on CC, U Hogwarts. Hogwarts has 20 seats and if only 2 of the top talent tier audition along with 400 second tier talent students, I’m thinking the odds for those 2 top tier students must be close to 100 percent. Brilliant. But the odds for the 400 second tier students are staggering - conclusion, that’s a really hard school to get into if you are a second tier talent student and thus, a very competitive school by that measure.</p>
<p>In summary, even though I may have caused the rekindling of this by a question posed in another thread, the numbers are interesting to know and I’m as curious about them as the next guy/gal, but they don’t really tell you anything.</p>