Before asking "Chances me @ Rice"; First, compare head-to-head stats @ Rice

Colleges and Universities A-Z Rice University
1

‘Take with a grain of salt’ my interest with Rice U. just started this year.
Hoping real Rice experts chime in. @Houston1021 @Faulkner1897 @Riversider

— First, Rice stats: https://admission.rice.edu/apply/freshman/admission-statistics
Test Scores (Middle 50% ranges of Deposited Students)
SAT Composite 1500, ACT Composite 34

— Next, high school admission stats (600 students, middle income, no ranking) Naviance Scattergrams results.
Between 2018 - 2017, 70+ students applied.
2 admit - High GPA, @1510 - @1540 SAT
2 waitlist - High GPA, @1520 - @1560 SAT

In 2019, not sure how many applied ED/RD.
So far, 1 ED admit - High GPA + NMSF(PSAT)

— And, attended one of Rice’s Open House (2500 students and parents showed up).
Paraphrasing director of admission

  1. High GPA and High SAT
  2. Clarity and Focus on high school to college major.(E.C. = C.F.)
  3. Ask yourself - Why Rice? How can Rice help you? What is your Passion?

Your passion should echo high school resume and transaction to solidify college (major) than career choice?
Meaning : “accomplishments that they surmise are made possible by a clear deep sustained interest in the major and career.”- copied from other post.

After all that! Applicants are just a number! In conclusion, apply Rice but have a backup plan.

2

Your advice is good for all of the top 20 schools. There are no guarantees in a highly selective process, specially where human judgment and institutional needs are to play a role as well.

Fortunately, Rice is fairly more meritocratic than Ivies. However, Rice does consider holistic aspects as well so there is always hope even if your stats aren’t the absolute best. If you like Rice then ED here gives more advantage than wasting your early choice on an SCEA at HYSPM, specially if you are an Asian, as ivies actively limit Asian enrollment.

Do your best and hope for the best.