Chance me at Bates?

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

I’m looking for some opinions about my chances at Bates if I applied early decision.

I go to one of the top public schools in Massachusetts which has a few kids going to Colgate already, and has very good relations with Boston College, so it has a name for itself among some schools.

Single SAT: 2120/2400
GPA: 4.58/5.3 (3.5/4, but this counts honors and AP the same…)
APUSH exam: 5
APES exam: 4
Awards: NHS, 3rd place in architecture fair, outstanding achievement in art, outstanding achievement in accounting
Top 15% of my class

Senior scheduale:
AP gov
AP Calc AB
AP studio art
Honors global lit
Honors physics
Honors sociology
CP Spanish V

Junior Sched:
APUSH
AP envi sci
honors American lit
honors pre-calc
honors accounting
honors studio art II
CP Spanish IV

there are no AP’s offered to underclassmen at my school, but I took all honors freshman and sophomore year besides CP Spanish.

Activities:
Lacrosse (10,11)
Competitive Cheerleading (9)
Global initiative volunteers (11,12)
Best buddies (11,12)
NHS (11,12)
lots of involvement with Relay for Life, and I’m also on the Event Leadership Team that plans the event at my school. (All years)
Student Coucil Representative (12)

I already have a stellar essay planned that everyone I explain to loves, and writing is a big skill of mine, so I’m sure that will be great. I am also getting really great recommendations from my math teacher, who I have an incredible relationship with, and my English teacher of 3 years.

Please let me know what you think!

2

I would say a 1 in 10 chance. Coming from Massachusetts doesn’t help an already tough application. Do try and do interview. Do your best.

3

^^^ I am one of those “I don’t do chance threads” guys because I don’t feel expert enough but gosh the above seems kinda harsh and very unspecific.

Can I ask why you feel the OPs chances are so much lower than the overall admissions rate for the school (of 23% for males 21% for females) when his class rank puts him in range of 28% of Bate’s admitted students and his SAT is only 6 points (0.25%) off the 75th percentile?

Please note **I am not saying the OP will be accepted, or even has a likely chance . I just wonder why @LacHopefulParent feel his odds are reduced down to 10%. I am hoping to learn something.

4

LOL I feel like the guy who said 1/10 chance is also applying ED and is trying to discourage you to have less competition! In all seriousness, it helps significantly at Bates to apply ED. Your GPA is a little low, your SAT is ok, and your ECs are ok. If you write a very good essay I think you have a good chance

5

^^^ Yes and I did not even consider the ED rates for Bates, which ATG is 42% (Yeah I know athletes and all, but 42% to 10% is a very steep drop).

6

I definitely feel like you have a solid chance… Much higher than 1/10 hahaha

7

This applies to schools like Bates as well. Forget the overall admissions rate and forget the ED rate. Last year the regular decision acceptance rate was 17% with an average ACT of 32 and average SAT of 2135. 81% in the top 10% of their class. The acceptance rates will be lower for Mass because of the number of applicants.

I think 1 in 10 is a fair way to look at it for an unhooked applicant from Mass. I am presuming Caucasian because nothing was mentioned. Very competitive demographic. This school has high yield keep in mind so the acceptance pool is rather small.

8

If it helps in making an assessment, I’m a Caucasian female and I won’t be applying for financial aid.

9

Thats the toughest demographic by far. White female from Mass. The regular decision acceptance rate for females is below 15% and lower still for white females from Mass. Yield for females is about 45% in looking at historical data so they dont accept as many females vs males.

Do your best but be mindful of the internal acceptance metrics. Visit and schedule an interview.

10

Why?

Not to argue, but the most recent common data set on their website has different stats: http://www.bates.edu/research/files/2010/03/cds1516.pdf

Do you have data to support that or is it just your speculation? How do you know the strength of the applicant pool from Mass specifically?

OP stated applying ED. Can you point to where you see the RD rate at 15%? CDS above has the overall for females at 21% but no breakdown for ED by gender to do the algebra.

Also again not sure where you got the geographic breakdown. Best I can find is 42% of class from New England (2015 not 16) which is not useful alone without knowing the number of applicants.

Again not trying to argue, trying to learn. My assumption is you have data I can’t find to make those claims and I want to know how to find it. Thanks in advance.

11

@Postmodern, here are the data you’re looking for:
http://www.bates.edu/news/2015/04/03/students-admitted-to-the-class-of-2019-are-the-academically-strongest-most-diverse-in-bates-history-3/

Please note that these stats are for accepted RD applicants, so it wouldn’t include the presumably weaker stats of some of the special category kids admitted through ED.

While I don’t think things are as bleak as @LacHopefulParent seems to think, s/he’s right about the OP being in a tough demographic for any of the NE LACs and that the ED rates will not be the same for an unhooked applicant as they would be for, say, a recruited athlete. I don’t have a link to data to support the 15% data for MA women but it wouldn’t surprise me. Bates is a very hot school in my area of MA.

12

@Sue22 , Thanks, but I had found that article previously. I do not see anything in in about specific states such as Mass, nor ED by gender. Still looking for those.

13

Just in case you haven’t seen this…
http://www.bates.edu/news/2016/04/08/inside-admission-decisions-2020/

14

@Postmodern, I haven’t found the gender or state breakdown either but it could have come from internal admissions information or a talk by someone in Bates admissions. It would not at all surprise me.

The CDC information is for the incoming class. The blog information (81% of RD kids in top 10%, etc.) is for admitted students. The latter is more instructive for the OP as it gives her a better idea of her chance of admission.

As an example, say 1000 kids are admitted to U of Mystate. Half of the admitted group has a GPA of 3.0. and half the group has a 4.0. The 4.0 group is admitted at a 100% rate and the 3.0 at a 20% rate, for an overall admit rate of 60%. If every 4.0 admittee decides to go elsewhere the CDC will show a freshman class with an average GPA of 3.0 and a 60% acceptance rate so a 3.0 applicant might assume their chances were 60%., but if they looked at the averages for admitted data they would see that same 60% acceptance rate but an average GPA of 3.5, making the school more of a reach school for a 3.0 kid.

15

I didn’t say the acceptance rate for white Mass females was 15% in RD, rather for all females in RD. That is a reasonable estimate given the overall relationship of females to males for schools like Bates. The acceptance rate for Northeastern whites females in RD will be lower than 15% in RD. That is just common knowledge.

Just keep someting in mind, 30-35% of females in NESCAC play varsity sports, so that leaves roughly 160 - 175 seats for females that don’t. Couple that with a desire to accept more non-white students outside of the Northeast, 37% last year, and a yield for females of 45% and you can see how you get to roughly 1 in 10 for this demographic.

The ED effect is not significant. Why should it be? The school knows it has 5,000 or more applications on the way in with high acceptance yield. It would be best for students not being recruited to forget about ED.

16

You can back out the CDC numbers to get close to LacHopefulParent’s 15%. If you assume men and women applied and were admitted at the same ED rate you can do a little math and come up with a roughly 17.4% acceptance rate for women RD. Of course the M/F ED ratios could be different…

OTOH, the fact that 30-35% of all women at NESCACs play a varsity sport does not mean all, or even the majority of that 30-35% were recruited. Many athletes apply RD.

The bottom line for the OP-the most useful tools for you will be Naviance and the experience of your GC. Asking other applicant to assess your chances is not going to be particularly enlightening. If the school is one of your top choices apply. If it’s your absolute top choice and you think you can afford it after running the NPC apply ED. Good luck!

17

Really? Because it says “applicants” and “admitted”. What am I missing?

I would think admitted students only stats would omit those admitted who enrolled elsewhere, most probably to more selective schools (with higher stats), which would possibly give the OP a more promising number, but not one related to admission.

Again, I don’t see the RD only stats by gender anywhere. As long as you admit it is a guess, that is your prerogative to state. I was wrong to assume you had data.

This link http://athletics.bates.edu/scholar_athlete_society/scholar-athlete-society says it’s actually 40% at Bates. So since we are being speculative, allow me the opportunity to try on some math (feel free to correct):

679 ED applicants overall, 311 students admitted ED. (most recruited athletes are ED, right? As quoted above to affect the 42% ED Rate). 353 female applicants if they apply at the same ratio (again I would love data on this).

x the 51% M/F ratio = 158 females ED

266 total female admits x40% athletes = 106 female athletes, leaving 52 non-athletes admitted ED

52 non-athlete ED admits / 195 non athlete applicants (353-158) = 27% non athlete ED rate.

Low but still 2.5X higher than the 10% unless you specifically handicap the OP hard for top 15% and not 10%, as the SAT is very near the 75th percentile.

Also, since Bates is need-aware, the OPs not needing FA would help any “bubble” scenario. Wouldn’t that help counter any geographic disadvantage (which we still don’t have data to prove)?

I know chances are a fools errand, but I like my guesses based on data. Reiterating that I am looking to be disproven so I can learn, and not to be argumentative.

18

The Bates piece reads:

The CDC reads:

[quote]
Percent and number of first-time, first-year (freshman) students enrolled in Fall 2015…/quote

Admitted = offered admission, regardless of where they ended up.
Incoming/enrolled = students who will attend.

When you did your calculation you forgot about other special categories-legacies, development admits, faculty kids, etc,., all of whom are encouraged to apply early. You also seem to be ignoring the fact that many of the 40% are not recruited. They’re kids who applied then tried out for the team.

None of this says much about this particular kid’s chances.

19

Right. So why would enrolled students data be more valuable to the OP since her question is regarding admission?

I did not forget about those. I don’t have data for them and did not make an assumption.

This fact would increase the OPs chances, so it seemed safe to discount since we can’t know the exact percentages.

20

@postmodern It know it is tempting to think ED has some magical powers but for regular students, schools like this have no incentive to be more generous during ED. It is a myth.

On that basis, Bates has had an overall lower acceptance rate for females of 3-5 percentage points so that stands in RD. So 17% becomes 15% for females just logical. Now back out minority applicants that gets you to 12% maybe lower. 37% of accepted students last year were not white. Factor in geography and you get what you get. Think about a school that will prioritize accepting at least two kids from every state but yours and, so 49, plus targets for international students and do the math. Of course a handfull of states will send buckets and this is a serious issue for her.

Thats just the way it is. Solid kid with great prospects but its a very tough application.