Chance me for University of California Santa Cruz? Could I get in?

Hi there! Thanks so much for taking some time to read this. I love UC Santa Cruz and I was wondering if I could get an opinion on my chances of getting in.

Sat score:1490
but I’m retaking it this October since that score was from my first time, and I believe that I can get well over a 1500 this time (although I don’t think it’ll be perfect).

ECs
I am a founding officer of a club at my high school that won club of the year award at my school during my sophomore year.
I’m in the process of publishing 2 physics based apps on the android store right now.
I’ve been in Science Olympiad since Sophomore year.
I also have a part time job at subway.

My only negative thing is my GPA. My freshman year of high school I took AP Computer science and all honors classes and got straight A’s, but during my Sophomore and especially during my Junior year my grades tanked. Basically all of my classes both years were AP’s or honors but I got a lot of C’s and some B’s and A’s. I have a reason for it that I can explain in my essays but I don’t know how solid my reason is either. My parents separated halfway through my Sophomore year of high school (after a not so graceful few months of living together) and then during my junior year my mom got breast cancer and had to be put on chemo and my dad took a new job at the same time which required him to travel away for months at a time. I’m in my senior year now and my grades are all A’s again(with 5 AP classes) and my home life hasn’t changed I’ve just grown and developed methods of self motivation.
Overall my Weighted GPA is a 4.08 right now but since that includes a pretty rockin freshman year it doesn’t accurately reflect my UC GPA which will be around the 3.2 mark.

I’m applying as a Physics major.

You have a compelling reason for your downward trend in grades so make sure you address them in your personal insight essay. Your SAT score is well above the 75th percentile for UCSC which was 1380 so retaking the SAT will not have a huge impact on your chances. The 1490 SAT demonstrates to admissions you are a capable and qualified applicant.

Much will depend upon how you convey how you have overcome the family issues and succeeding in spite of these issues. Unfortunately UC’s do not ask for Senior grades but some UC’s do ask for a supplemental review where you can submit your 1st semester Senior grades and letters of recommendations. This is by invitation only.

You do have a chance but it will be up to admissions. Best of luck and continue to succeed despite all the obstacles.