Chance me?

Hey guys, I wanted to get some advice on how likely I am to get into Stony Brook. I am acutely aware of my grades and whatnot being far below average. This is mostly due to me being a general “failure” as a student for most of my life before 11th grade. Junior and senior year I started taking school seriously after some events happened.

Family income for 4 - below 20k, NYC resident

Freshman year GPA - 2.5
Sophomore year GPA - 2.3, 1 honors class
Junior year GPA - 3.6 AP US History, 3/5 on exam, 1 honors class
Senior year GPA - 4.0 (currently) AP Biology, AP Statistics, AP World History

Current GPA - 84.65 excluding senior year as midyear report not yet finished.

SAT Score - 1640, 1800

Exam 1 - 640, 450, 540
Exam 2 - 650, 540, 610

Rank 116/313 in class

21-25 hours of work per week as a lifeguard for YMCA
4 hours of work per week as a swim instructor for YMCA

I currently have the following certifications:
Red Cross: Lifeguarding, CPR, AED, First Aid
YMCA: YSL, Lifeguarding, BLS (Basic life support, more advanced first aid, AED, CPR, etc)

I am also the captain of my schools varsity swim team, been on the team for 3 years.
Manager for the girls swim team
Former Model United Nations Member
Also participate in loads of community service and volunteering during the summers and fundraising events

Very good recommendation letters, one of them is from a teacher who graduated princeton with honors and is willing to write quite a bit about me.

I think my essay is quite good. It tries to give a reason for my low academic performance, and I talk about how I have grown as a person and become who I am now.

My main fault is my poor math performance. I wonder how badly it will affect me. Math grades usually in 80s in Algebra, Geometry, and trig. Still passed all 3 regents and will be getting a Advanced Regents Diploma.

My other regents exams are all at least an 85, with the exception of a common core english, but regular english was a 91. Also a chem regents which I messed up on because I missed a whole page, getting a 68.

How does it look? I plan to try and get into their restricted nursing major in my sophomore year, and will soon start studying to become an EMT. Also, I might enter as a literature major as my strengths are clearly in english and switch out sophmore year.

Any ideas on my chances of getting in?

Maybe you should apply for the EOP program.
http://www.stonybrook.edu/eopaim/about.shtml