Chances of American student getting into U of Toronto, St. George at trinity?

I have just finished my junior year of high school. First semester I was at an easier high school and received straight A’s with two weighted classes, so I got a 4.3. Second semester I moved back to the high school I spent my my 9th and 10th grade at. The curriculum is much more challenging and I was missing 5 months of knowledge, so I had to drop out of my spanish 3 class, I got a c in pre calc, a b in honors chem, an a in ap psychology, and I’m still waiting on my english grade. Let’s pretend second semester I got a weighted gpa of 3.6.
What kind of grades do I need senior year to get in?
How is an american gpa calculated in the eyes of a Canadian university?
What ACT score and SAT 2 Math 2 score do I need?
Does it make a difference that my high school is unusually competitive and hard? I spent a week in my hometown in Canada earlier this year, and I was shocked by how easy it was. The concepts being taught in my 11th grade class I had mastered in the 9th grade.
Also, is there no possible way to explain life/family situations and environmental factors through a written piece when applying? Or is it strictly grades?

Sorry lots of questions! I live in the U.S. and I found out today my visa makes me ineligible for scholarships and student aid. ): So my only realistic option seems to be Canada, which I’m not too bummed about if I can get into trinity! Any help would be much appreciated, thank you! (: