<p>Is there any indication yet of whether the SF cutoffs will generally increase or decrease this year? I have a 212 in AL, so all I can do is hope it will be a down year.</p>
<p>I’m from AL as well. To my understanding, it’s likely that it will go down at least one or two points. I think 212 is safe, being that 212 is the highest Alabama has had in a while. I’m guessing the cutoff will be 210 or 209. Primarily because the Class of 2014 put up higher scores than our class did, at least in North AL.</p>
<p>It seems like whenever there is a significant rise in cutoffs (as last year), the numbers seem to fall the following year. Fingers crossed in PA, as my daughter scored 217- exactly last year’s cutoff.</p>
<p>Looking at the state summary reports it looks like the class of 2015 scored higher as sophomores than the class of 2014 did as sophomores. Am I looking at this right? It seems to me that based on this that we could expect the NM cutoffs to go up, not down.</p>
<p>Forgive the cut and paste here, but I have to leave for work. I posted this on another thread:</p>
<p>Oh Less, I think I can help. I had that same panicked conclusion a few weeks back. But then I realized that FAR more students test their junior year, than their sophomore year, and also noticed that the trend of sophomores outscoring juniors is a repeated one, at least in PA.</p>
<p>My thinking (feel free to weigh in!) is that perhaps the brighter sophomores test, and that many more average students do not, at least in a school where they don’t just blanket test everyone. This would tend to inflate the sophomore scores above the cut level scores, when more students are encouraged to test as juniors.</p>
<p>Going down would be nice, but I can’t guarantee that. My own predictions have scores staying roughly the same for the most part, but maybe down a point here and there. Fingers crossed!</p>
<p>“Looking at the state summary reports it looks like the class of 2015 scored higher as sophomores than the class of 2014 did as sophomores. Am I looking at this right? It seems to me that based on this that we could expect the NM cutoffs to go up, not down.”</p>
<p>I’d say the test which 2014 took as juniors and 2015 took as sophomores was apparently a bit easier, both grades scored high on the same test. So the 2015 sophomores outscored the 2014 sophomores who took a slightly more difficult test. I don’t think you can make any predictions from this.</p>
<p>Lessismore: This is a difference in difficulty and the scoring curves between those two tests and not because a class one year is smarter than another year. The test that the Class of 2015 took as sophomores was the test that turned out to result in the highest cut-offs in the history of most states (ie the cutoff scores for the class of 2014). The test that the Class of 2014 took as sophomores resulted in lower cutoffs for the Class of 2013 because scores were lower across the board (2014 sophomores and 2013 juniors) on that test. The cut-offs for the Class of 2015 will depend on the scoring for the 2013 test and there is no way to know how that will compare to the scoring on either of those previous tests until the actual 2013 data is compiled. There might be some indication when the summary reports for this year come out but until then everything is just guesses without any real data to compare this year’s scores to any previous year’s. About all that can be said is one would not expect next year’s cut-offs to be substantially different than any other historical cutoff for any state.</p>
<p>Thanks for the explanations. So I am now looking at College Board’s Highlights of 2013 Junior Data (scores for hte test taken by Juniors in the fall of 2013) and it shows that the juniors have lower scores than the previous year in CR and WS and remained the same in Math. So maybe this means that the 2013 test was more difficult and the cutoff scores for the class of 2015 will go down?</p>
<p>The cut off fluctuates year to year. Last year, it was near historic high for many states in the cutoff. So it is likely to go down this year. The Class 2015 test scores as sophomore last year has nothing to do in the prediction of the cut off for this year.</p>
<p>Thanks for your reply billcsho. I may be wrong, but what I think the report is comparing is the 2013 junior’s scores vs. the 2012 junior’s scores. So if the class of 2015’s scores are lower as juniors than the class of 2014’s scores as juniors it seems that is a valid prediction of the cut off for this year. If the 2013 test scores are lower overall, maybe the top tier scores will be lower as well and therefore the cut offs will be lower. Am I missing something? Here’s the link for the data I am referring to: <a href=“SAT Suite of Assessments – Reports | College Board”>http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr</a>. I know it’s just an indication and I will have to wait till the fall to know the actual cut off (I have never been good a waiting!).</p>
<p>That is the thing. The Class of 2015 Sophomore and the Class of 2014 Junior were taking the same test at the same time. The cut off for Class of 2014 junior was higher in most states indicating a more generous curve that is also shared with the Class of 2015 Sophomore. That is the reason why they have a higher sophomore score. The cutoff for Class of 2015 will depend on their test scores in junior year. The difference in cut off is depending on the curves and distributions which vary from year to year. So comparing sophomore scores from different years is pointless. However, if you are looking at the section score distribution of junior year, you may get some idea on the trend of the cut off. I did that last year and predicted a significant increase in my state although the number is a bit off.</p>
<p>I agree with @lessismoremom…the data in the link she shared showed a slight decrease in our kids scores for the test taken in 10/13 (other than math)
With that said I am hoping that it is an indicator that the cutoff will remain the same or go down!
Fingers crossed!!!</p>
<p>I will put my bet on going down this year for most states as the cut off was high last year.</p>
<p>This is my first post!
Like most of you, I like to crunch the numbers.
I looked at the Junior results from '05 (a high cutoff year for many states) through '13 (no state data yet, only highlights).
College board posts the average scores on the summary page. I compared the sum of the average CR, M & W for each year to the cutoff scores for Colorado (our home state).
There seems to be some relationship to the average score rising and falling and the state cut off score for CO. Not a perfect up and down but possibly gives a trend?
2013 141.9 ???
Here are the numbers: Test taken: 2012 average score: 142.8 CO cutoff: 215 (for the class of 2014)
2011 141.5 212
2010 141.6 215
2009 140.9 212
2008 141.3 213
2007 140.8 213
2006 142.0 213
2005 146.0 216</p>
<p>Perhaps you would like to try these numbers out for your state and see if you also see some trends.
I would love to hear what you think of this number fun.</p>
<p>CC has two-overlapping threads going about what 2015 cutoff scores might be. I too thought it might be fun to make a prediction based on virtually no data, and before the State summaries come out. So, based on anecdotes, the National summary of Juniors performance on the Oct 2013 test and sheer speculation I predict that California cutoff will go down to 222. No 221. No, 222. Well, down a point or two anyway. I reserve right to make slightly less WAG after reviewing State summaries, if they ever come out!</p>