<p>The computers don’t take into account margin of victory. USC is 5 spots lower in the Sagarin predictor than in his BCS rating.</p>
<p>I don’t know that USC necessarily deserves to be ahead of Oregon State. Both have the same number of losses as Stanford, and the three teams split the games against each other. The only logical way (or best, IMO) to sort it out is point differential and location. Both would suggest Stanford then Oregon State then USC. And then there’s Arizona, which also has 3 losses and is 2-0 against those three teams. Should they be last of the 4?</p>
<p>^ But don’t you see, that’s the problem: This Pac-10 season has been so crazy, with different teams beating each other, that it’s IMPOSSIBLE to come up with a perfect list. Someone else here should try it :D</p>
<p>USC shouldn’t be anywhere near the Top 10 after that performance last night. If another team not called “USC” had the same season, they might not even be ranked right now.</p>
<p>Clemson is in at the rankings at #23 which I think is a bit low, we should at least be in the top 20</p>
<p>our 3 losses include a: loss to #4 TCU by 4 points, loss to #7 Georgia Tech by 3 points, and then a loss to Maryland which probably is the reason why the computers hate us</p>
<p>Like you said, USC is #15 in sagarin rankings (the ones which use margin of victory). The computers don’t take into account name recognition or anything. </p>
<p>Why does it rank USC so high even with blowout losses? Same reason the SEC gets the benefit of the doubt every year, it’s top teams beating each other up. </p>
<p>Sagarin says USC has played the #5 toughest schedule this year, playing against (using margin of victory rankings) #6 Oregon #8 Ohio State #14 Stanford #25 Oregon State #29 Notre Dame #31 Cal.</p>
<p>Well, you’d have to figure that they would take a similar dive in every rating if margin of victory counted, pushing their spot at 14 down around 20, closer to the human polls (in all their reactionary glory). I mean it’s really quite incredible that after a 34 point home(coming) loss, USC would drop all of one spot in Wolfe’s BCS rankings and not at all in Sagarin’s.</p>
<p>The computer polls, by and large, don’t punish losses the same way the human polls do. The human polls will (almost automatically) punish a team for losing by dropping them down, but the computers don’t punish teams. They look at the body of work and evaluate based on the season performance.</p>
<p>Consider LSU, who ranks #8 in the computer polls, the highest two loss team (in fact, the highest any-loss team besides georgia tech). The overall record of teams they’ve beaten is a rather sad 33-49 (.402), but their only two losses were to Florida and Alabama. The computers aren’t going to punish them for those losses, since they are “expected”. This is why, for example, Sagarin has LSU ahead of Boise State and Oregon (even though Oregon has the same record against a tougher schedule)</p>
<p>Besides, the ranking is irrelevant (USC needs to be at least 14 for a very unlikely BCS bowl bid - and below that doesn’t matter)</p>
<p>I think he misunderstood “Stanford goes to the Rose Bowl” with “USC goes to the Rose Bowl”. There’s only one circumstance where USC can do that, which is essentially everyone above them in the pac-10 having a total collapse (including oregon state losing to WSU)</p>
<p>Oregon has to play @ Arizona, Arizona has to play @ USC, and Oregon State has to play @ Oregon. Given how hard it is to play on the road in the pac-10, and all of those home teams have a decent shot at winning.</p>
<p>Oh yeah, if OSU beats UO then OSU, UO and Stanford will all be 2-loss teams, but Oregon STate will go to the Rose Bowl because they beat the other 2… Sweet, I didn’t really notice that.</p>
<p>I’m going to that OSU/UO civil war game. It’s going to be awesome.</p>
<p>Stanford, in addition to winning Big Game, needs one of the following two sets of results:
Arizona beats Oregon, Oregon beats OSU, Arizona loses to either ASU or USC
-or- Wazzu beats OSU, OSU beats Oregon, Arizona loses to either Oregon, ASU, or USC</p>
<p>USC, in addition to winning out, needs exactly the following results:
Oregon loses to both Arizona and OSU, OSU loses to Wazzu, Stanford loses to Cal, Arizona beats ASU, Cal beats Washington.
This results in a six-way shared title. USC, Arizona, and Oregon State survive the first tiebreaker, each having 3-2 records against the other tied teams. Then USC wins the Rose Bowl spot by having beaten both Arizona and OSU. That’s the only way they can do it.</p>
<p>Oregon, of course, has the easy road in. Oregon State and Arizona also have an easier time than Stanford getting in, because they both still play Oregon (and both must win that game or they’re eliminated). Arizona can get in just by winning out. Cal is eliminated from the Rose Bowl, even though they can theoretically share the conference title.</p>
<p>I like college football a lot more (likely because I went to USC when they were winning heismans and national championships and such, so I became a bigger fan following college)</p>
<p>Also, no pro team in LA (not that I especially follow the Lakers or anything, and I wouldn’t follow an LA pro football team even if there was one)</p>
<p>I do like watching USC alums play in the NFL so I do sometimes keep up with some of the highlight reels. Anyone else see Clay Matthews rip the ball away from Adrian Peterson a month or two ago?</p>