<p>"..the reason I never play the game of WAMC is that it is virtually IMPOSSIBLE to handicap one's chances with a modicum of accuracy."</p>
<p>It does seem that way. I don't play that game much either.</p>
<p>"..benefit tremendously in the ... game of statistics."
If so then it would only make it actually more difficult to be admitted there, right? Assuming we can analyze application motives.. I'm no better at this than WAMC though. Whether or not that comment is even relevant here.</p>
<p>"...very strong students who applied to both Barnard and Columbia were waitlisted at Barnard, while weaker students for whom Barnard looked like a reach were accepted."</p>
<p>We had something like this personally in our own family, though nobody wanted or applied to Columbia. D1, a National Merit Scholar, National AP Scholar, etc, was waitlisted at Barnard. D2, with still excellent yet a bit lesser stats, was admitted. So I can't dismiss this possibility.</p>
<p>However, in our case there are some potentialy confounding circumstances:
- D2, learning from D1's situation, applied ED.
-D2 is actually a better fit for Barnard, based on her academic interests
-D2 has different extra-curriculars, which the college may have evaluated higher.
-All teachers love D2. Teachers who D1 likes like D1, but this can be a more select group. Who knows what the school and teacher rec letters said?</p>
<p>So was Tufts Syndrome really at work here, or was D2 in actuality the better candidate when all circumstances, particularly fit, were evaluated?</p>
<p>In our case, at the end of the day I really can't say.</p>
<p>It does seem to me though that expression of appropriateness of fit is a consideration of most LACs. At least the ones that my kids applied to. Increasing yield is one explanation. Others are : increasing retention; and rationing the available spaces to those who seem to best fit with what is actually available.</p>
<p>All of which just goes to reinforce the first sentence above.</p>