I really, really appreciate the feedback everyone has offered, including the observations on ‘life’ as well as college decisions. I realized a couple of things last night that might make a difference. Financially, I relied on DH’s calculations; however looking at it again, I don’t believe he’s analyzing it correctly.
Because the financial aid at Richmond is need-based and American is mostly (three-quarters) merit based, there is a very good chance that it will change in the future. I have been looking for work for quite a while, and am now studying for an additional certification in my field, which I believe will help a lot. I assume that I’m going to find something soon which will add at least $60k to our income. Even more important from the financial point of view, we both have parents that are elderly and quite ill. It’s likely that (unfortunately) we will be inheriting some unknown amount of money in the next couple of years. (I’d rather have the parents than the money, but we don’t have a choice about it). My DH didn’t want to consider that because it’s not something we want or hope for, but realistically this is something likely to happen in the next four years. The amount is unknown and unknowable because right now there are expenses for assisted living, but is unlikely to be trivial and could be very significant. There is also a potential settlement or verdict from a lawsuit, again the amount cannot be predicted.
Based on this, there is a possibility that DD would lose some, most, or all of her merit aid. It’s unlikely but possible for any of the above contingencies to occur during the rest of the year, but it is possible. The possibility will be stronger as time goes on.
DH was also adding the awarded $20k in subsidized (Stafford) student loans towards the 80k figure. Of course having our daughter take out $20k in loans is something to consider, however it shouldn’t be included in the $80k figure becuase it’s not like we already have this money, it’s just a possibility that could be used to pay for American (the Richmond package did not include loans or work-study; American’s aid package didn’t include work-study, which is odd because both of our kids worked during high school and our older had work-study aid).
So the estimated $80k should actually be $60k, and for this we should also consider the impact that funds from work/inheritance/lawsuit. If we lose one year of need-based aid - which I believe is very possible - from Richmond, the difference between the two schools would be $25k for four years, which is not insubstantial but is not in our estimation enough to base a college decision on. If we lost two or more years of aid, American actually comes out better.
I’m not sure if a college would deny all financial after previously awarding it, however a $60k increase in earnings and a (possibly) substantial inheritance may do just that. I haven’t yet called Richmond to ask about it and not sure if they can give me than a b.s. answer because if we don’t know how much (if any) additional funds we will have next year, or the year after that, or the year after that…
Anyway, this changes a lot. Not sure why I didn’t see this before or DH didn’t consider it. In the past thought about hiring a financial planner specializing in college funding to go over the numbers with but let myself be talked out of it. Now I wish I had done it.