How can I make my dad realize I can't get into the colleges he is convinced I can get into..?

It may be a “reach” school for many California applicants for whom the good-financial-aid private schools and many of the UCs are seen as too selective, and do not want to go to a commuter-based school that most of the other CSUs are, or pay a lot of money at a private school whose financial aid is not that good. Also, as a CSU, it is generally seen as a school for students who want to be ready to work at graduation more so than UCs and other highly selective schools (yes, this viewpoint is anathema to many posting on these forums, but is probably what a majority of college students are looking at as the purpose of attending college).