<p>^^^ notre dame AL, </p>
<p>Most colleges are need-blind in admissions, but the vast majority of them don’t promise to meet 100% of demonstrated need. They’ll continue merrily on as before, accepting students regardless of financial need, offering what they can in the way of FA (usually something significantly less than 100% of demonstrated need), and letting the chips fall where they may. If the admitted student can scrape together enough resources to attend, great, but if not, so be it.</p>
<p>At issue here are two smaller groups of colleges, most of them at the elite end of the scale. One group promises to meet 100% of demonstrated need, but these schools are “need aware” in admissions for at least part of the class. Smith, for example, promises to meet 100% of demonstrated need but claims to be “95% need-blind” in admissions, meaning it simply doesn’t have resources to meet 100% of need for 100% of its students. So the last 5% Smith admits are probably going to be full-pays, even if it means passing over some equally or better-qualified students with need. (There will also be some full-pays in the first 95% taken strictly on merit, of course). The question for these schools is whether shrinking endowments, declining annual giving, and greater demands for FA from a current student body and new admit pool that are on average in much worse financial shape than last year will push the schools in the direction of ratcheting up the number of full-pays in their admit pools.</p>
<p>The other group is schools that promise to meet 100% of financial need AND have a need-blind admissions policy. There are actually very few of these. They’re in arguably worse shape. If they continue to be need-blind and continue to meet 100% of need, their FA budgets will surely soar, just when they have fewer resources to work with. The best-endowed can manage it; Yale, for example, just announced that it will maintain its current FA policies and look for other ways to meet an estimated $100 million budget shortfall for the current academic year, due mainly to an estimated 25% shrinkage in its endowment which contributes 44% of its total operating budget. For others, it’s dicier, and the options aren’t pretty: deep cuts elsewhere in the budget; retreating from their commitment to 100% need-blind admissions; or retreating from their commitment to meet 100% of demonstrated need. </p>
<p>Or, simply cheat on the need-blind pledge by finding ways to increase the number of full-pays in the entering class, without officially changing ther policy. One way to do that might be to fill more of the entering class from the ED applicant pool. My guess is that full-pays make up a higher percentage of the ED applicant pool than the RD applicant pool, because many applicants with financial need will conclude they can’t risk a binding ED commitment regardless of what their FA package looks like. If that hypothesis is correct, then increasing the percentage of the class drawn from the ED pool from, say, 25% to 40% of the class will likely increase the number of full-pays in the entering class even if the adcom technically isn’t examining the financial need of each individual ED applicant.</p>