How much do essays REALLY matter for Stanford? Do I even stand a chance?

For Stanford, in your opinion, how much do essays matter? From what I’ve seen so far in terms of admitted applicants, extracurricular activities appear to be the most meaningful for Stanford, somewhat even more so than grades, although I’m not fully sure if essays bear HUGE weight in admission.
I applied to Stanford RD with a 4.1 weighted cumulative GPA (including senior year first semester) and some decent extracurriculars (got president’s gold service volunteering award three times and LOTS of volunteering). However, I do know that my grades are rather lackluster for Stanford, and my EC’s aren’t extraordinary such as creating a nonprofit organization or inventing things etc. Assuming that I have good recommendation letters and stellar essays (actually quite proud of my common app essay on cultural identity and some creative supplemental responses), are those potentially enough to bridge the gap for an acceptance? I highly doubt I even have a shot of being accepted, but please be as honest as possible because I’m quite curious.

Apologies if you saw my redundant discussion from yesterday with a similar question, but this discussion is SPECIFICALLY only for Stanford.

You should know every bit of your app and supp matter to Stanford or any other tippy top. Every bit. No one piece will trump, if the others don’t line up.

And that it’s not weighted gpa. They look at the transcript and expect rigor and top performnce- the competition is that fierce. Sorry, but that’s an honest answer. It’s ridiculously difficult.

I can’t chance you, but good rec letters (all applicants will have those at a minimum, many applicants will be from highly competitive, rigorous high schools and have letters that say ‘this is one of the best students I have ever had’), and stellar essays (many applicants will have those) will not ‘bridge the gap’ caused by a relatively low unweighted GPA (what is yours?) and average ECs. Rigor of your high school classes is also very important. With an acceptance rate below 5%, an acceptance to Stanford is really difficult for even very high achieving and/or pointy students.

Hopefully you have applied to a number of schools (in categories such as reach-target-safety) that you will be excited to attend in the fall. Good luck.