How much will negative grade trend hurt me?

Hello, I’m in the high school class of 2019, and as applications draw nearer I grow more curious about this.

I want to know how my grade trend will affect admissions to selective colleges (think Wake Forest, University of Washington, UNC at Chapel Hill)

My grades freshman year: 3.95U/W, 4.15W(on 4.4 scale)
Sophomore: 3.84U/W, 4.05W
Junior: 3.5U/W, 3.95W

My classes did progess in difficulty, as I grade skipped in math this year (not honors though) and added on honors and AP coursework. There were personal reasons for the decline as well.

I have great ECs and a great ACT score, as well as the confidence to pull off great essays. Guessing my letters of rec will be strong too.

If you could tell me how this could potentially affect my chances, or ways to patch up any negative effects it could cause, it would be well appreciated! Thanks!

Junior year is often the hardest of secondary school: it’s when the tougher courses kick in, and the EC commitments get heavier.

If your marks recover this term, showing that you have adjusted and can handle the more rigorous work load, that will help.