<p>Hi all, </p>
<p>I'm a little surprised by some of the results given to me by parchment.com. It's an online chancing service. It claims to be anywhere between 70 - 80% accurate, but I wanted to be sure with a few CC folks. The figures I've been getting are positive-- potentially way too positive-- so I'm not sure whether they're reliable. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.parchment.com/%5B/url%5D">https://www.parchment.com/</a></p>
<p>Let me know what you think!</p>
<p>The only reliable chancing method is this:</p>
<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/harvard-university/835055-calculate-your-chances-admission-harvard.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/harvard-university/835055-calculate-your-chances-admission-harvard.html</a></p>
<p>Haha, fair enough. But, just to give a ballpark idea of admit eligibility-- not solely for Harvard but for a variety of institutions-- would parchment suffice? I understand many selective colleges look at things more holistically than parchment could ever hope to splice together via empirical algorithm, but… </p>
<p>Does it have the potential to be somewhat accurate? Maybe not 80% accurate, but good for an indication as to whether or not you should apply?</p>
<p>What is ballpark accuracy when an admission rate is below 6 percent? </p>
<p>Although Harvard doesn’t publish their waitlist numbers, many other colleges do. Princeton, for example, waitlisted over 1,400 students last year. Yale waitlisted over 1,000 students. Speculation is that Harvard waitlisted about the same. Duke waitlisted more than 3,000 students several years back – more students than they actually accepted. </p>
<p>I imagine Parchment’s algorithm cannot distinguish between students who receive a ‘fat envelope’ and others who are runner-ups. That’s because at selective colleges, acceptance often comes down to which students – among a rather large group of ultra high achievers and test takers – have the best teacher recommendations and the most interesting essays. Selection is based upon comparing you to the competition. A student’s chances one year may be greater, or weaker, depending upon the caliber of other students applying. Those factors cannot be assessed by an online program or by anyone here on College Confidential. That’s why chance threads, and on-line Parchment-like programs are not reliable.</p>
<p>Probably equally reliable and of equal worth than anything else – which is to say zero. If you’re viable, then apply. Who cares how people think? Don’t be like the countless lemmings here on CC who need outside confirmation/hand holding/ affirmation. Do your best, apply with your best, hope for the best, create a realistic target school list, enjoy your senior year. It ain’t all dat.</p>
<p>Good luck.</p>
<p>^^ So, bascially Parchment is akin to looking at Naviance – only Naviance is more school specific, and has more of a track record.</p>
<p>While Parchment and Naviance both give scatterplots, these programs do not take into account subjective factors, such as teacher reccomendations – which according to the College Board website is the 2nd most important factor in admissions (after your transcript).</p>
<p>^Plus Parchment depends on self reporting and I’d be willing to bet that more admitted students than rejected students come back to the site to post results. The outcome would be an unrealistically rosy picture.</p>
<p>I tried playing with the “what if?” feature which allows you to see how changes in your stats would influence your chances at particular colleges. I was not impressed. School A with a 3.6 and 2000 SATs = 37 percent chance. Makes sense. It’s a tough but not impossible school to get into. However, change that to a 1.0 average with 600 SAT and guess what your chances are…37 percent! The site says this is based on 106 results so I can’t see what their excuse would be.</p>
<p>At school B not a single student on the scattergram was admitted with a 3.0 or less, yet magically, with mediocre SATs and a 3.0 my chances for admission would be 92 percent!</p>
<p>They must love my white, non-athletic, overrepresented state self. =)</p>
<p>I don’t think it’s accurate. When I did the What If? feature I put myself in as a legacy at a school that is known for giving no preference to legacies. My chances nearly doubled</p>
<p>^And when I entered legacy status and ED at a school known for liking legacies who apply early it didn’t change the chances at all!</p>