<p>I know my son used one of those sites to guage his chances. The problem is that all the site can tell you is at best whether you would make the cut based on past statistics of those accepted. In reality some 5-10,000.00 prospective sudents all have very similar credentials. The top .1 percent of those taking the SAT are all likely very strong students, and would do well at any college they entered. With that said it does not mean you get in. All of the top private schools have some portion of their enrollment set aside for legacies, sports stars or a student with some special talent or ones who have gone through hell to get a good education despite the odds against them. I have heard some say at a school like Harvard that number can be as high as 15-25% or more, though I have no inside knowledge. Then race, ethnicity and other factors are used to balance the class. The top schools then have their own idea of what they are looking for in a prospective student. Duke was very tough to get into last year, perhaps their strongest class ever. They look at a lot of factors so don't rely on a site as it could limit you because prospective students migh tnot apply when they would have a better shot at admission then they know or it could cause over confidence which is just as dangerous. With that said my son just started and loves it...good luck</p>
<p>Yes, you have a great shot. Perfect GPA obviously, good test scores, and good ECs. But, like for most applicants, it comes down to how well you express yourself in your essay.</p>
<p>The 1460 may be a little low actually.
It depends on the rest of your competition.
I got in Duke over some people in my school (with higher GPAs- one is a friend of mine who had straight A's) two years ago, presumably because I had a higher SAT (1560) than those who were rejected/waitlisted.
However, writing a good essay as godevils2011 said is very important.</p>
<p>focus on your essays...and make sure to visualize yourself in a contributing role in the Duke community/mission/educational specialty programs.<br>
My son had somewhat stronger stats but did not get merit money from any of the schools on your page, so be prepared for that possibility at your closer to "match" schools. Paying full freight is very very tough. Merit money is sometimes reserved for the quirky contributor to a community, not the well rounded. There really is no "bottom" at many of these schools...everyone ie capable or deserving of merit attention. So...show you edges, use your writing talent. Let's hear about your theater work in your essays, and do your best to bring your personal heritage out in your essays...in ways that will make you a colorful and positive aspect of life at Duke. Sign up for an alum interview. Ask a peer to send a reference letter and make sure it doesn't recount your activity sheet..and shows your character. Our son was admitted over many with higher class ranks, GPAs and test scores...so your personal impact on your future class...should be forecasted well in your essays...Tell them what you are looking for as well...and what you need to grow.</p>
<p>mm. good advice indeed. Well, if all goes well, I should get a decent amount of need-based aid, but merit aid would be such a welcome bonus to that.</p>
<p>I will definitely have an interview :)</p>
<p>I have a few essays I'm working on right now for various prompts, but I think these are my two favorites so far. </p>
<p>1) Prompt: Topic of your choice/Personal Experience.<br>
Response: I am a very opinionated and (sometimes) loud person. My voice has driven my success in public speaking (forensics and mock trial) and acting. but last year at nationals, when I missed the top 14 by one point, I got to truly listen and learn from other speakers without worrying about myself or my speech. It helped me understand that others have things to say that are often more exciting than my own ideas!</p>
<p>2) Prompt: Talk about someone who inspires you.<br>
Response: My Precal and Advanced Physics teacher, whose classes are notorious at my school for being next to impossible (only 5 people are in my senior physics class), but who helped me get a 95 in precal (and, so far, an A in physics) through hard work.</p>
<p>I looked again at the site and you probably know my kids who competed nationally in debate too, though in different areas. The predictions seem like ones I would intuitively agree with based on the information supplied. All bets are up in the air though given a large applicant pool. The VD at my sons school had a 2390 SAT(single test date) all 800 Sat 11 scores a ridiclous GPA 5.6+ etc. Loads of impressive EC's and awards, and was about as perfect a student as exists- yet denied or weight listed at HYPS. Go figure. I would stress you need great letters of recomendations and really well written essays. For what its worth I think you have a very good chance of getting in, but you may want to retake the SAT to lift yourself up a bit. You are the type of student that is going to do well anywhere you attend. Good luck on Duke - it is an amazing school.</p>
<p>Does anyone (Duke student or alumnus would be fantastic) want to comment on my essay topics? I think the important thing is that they're completely genuine, not "fake" or trying to tell the adcomms what they want to hear, at all. They'll pretty much write themselves.</p>
<p>oh, and bfg, what events did they do??!! Even though I don't do it, LD is by far my favorite debate event. If you win nats at LD, you can go wherever you want. This year at Vegas, I watched LD finals (both from Texas! whoo!) and they were both seniors. I think one's going to Yale and the other to Harvard, if I remember correctly haha</p>
<p>One in LD and the other in extemp. I judged LD for 4 years as a parent judge and also judged quarter finals at Harvard once or twice which is unusual as mostly coaches only at that level- but maybe because I also debated years ago and am an attorney, that coupled with the loss of one of the coach judges who failed to show up on time. At Harvard I had the pleasure of judging MS, I don't want to post his name but you likely know the initials as he was one of the best- won Harvard. My son in LD last went to nationals when they were in Tx , but the last year or so was reallty college apps, SAT and essays and a bit less on the national circuit. He spent a lot of time on his essays and when I finally got to read them I was really proud of how well written the essays were as they all had that "wow"factor. That is critical and I would realy look to write something that can represent who you are and at the same time be extremely well written. I would be really be careful of posting something on a board. I don't think , my son shared any of his essays until he already turned them into the school. If you have a great idea there is always a chance someone tries to use it and if they are applying to the same school its a nightmare- and I have heard stories from admissions employees. Instead I would see if a parent, guidance counselor or teacher would read them and give you some feedback. </p>
<p>....And as for LD at finals - the event is now running so fast its more policy than LD. We had one person arguing with a parent- Circuit Court Judge over the speed issue. it is so fast that I don't know how anyone can really flow it anymore. Good Luck</p>
<p>Yeahhhh I sort of agree about LD basically becoming CX (policy), but I watched it and could reasonably understand the arguments, even as a non-debater.</p>
<p>I did extemp a few times at local tourneys too (FX, mainly)! haha it's tough. I did take straight 1sts every round at a big TX tourney in <strong>novice</strong> extemp, which is kind of like kissing your sister.</p>
<p>hmmm so you think even posting the IDEAS is a bad idea? Or are you just advising against getting help with the final product?</p>
<p>oh, and yes I know the MS of whom you speak :)</p>
<p>also, sidenote, the girl who won Harvard OO last year was in my very first prelim round at nats (talk about pressure!), and didn't even make the top 60. just goes to show how good the competition is, and how crazy some results can be!</p>