Is this safety "safe" enough?

<p>Thanks to much help from CC folks and lots of research DS is in the midst of narrowing his list. He can't apply anywhere early as financial aid is vital and we will qualify for need based aid. He's interested in Dartmouth, Williams, Stanford, Pomona, Claremont McKenna, Emory, Trinity(Tx) and Whitman. His stats are within range but not great until you get toward the end of the list. His GPA and SAT are above 75th percentile only at Trinity and Whitman. Whitman had 46% admit rate this year and Trinity above 50%. Does he need another - safer - "safety"?
He would be in line for good scholarhips at a few less selective schools, but he doesn't want to get too far off the west coast for a less academic environment. Whitman might actually be his first choice, but we can't afford to apply early.Is Whitman "safe" enough?</p>

<p>Are there any rolling admissions schools or schools offering Early Action that you can try? That would give you an early write without impeding your son's ability to compare financial aid awards in the spring.</p>

<p>I think his odds are pretty strong at Whitman, but I wouldn't deem any college a true "safety" if the admit rate is under 50%. Once you are in a situation where the school turns away more than it accepts, you can't say there is an absolute lock on admissions. I mean, the odds may be 80% in your favor, but a true safety should be as close to a 100% guarantee as possible. (That's the advantage of rolling admissions -- once the acceptance letter arrives, the school becomes a "safety", even if it was a reach the day before. Tulane is a good example of a fairly prestigious, selective school that will give some students a very quick answer with an expedited early application.) Since you need financial aid, it has to be a financial safety as well -- a college you are absolutely certain you will be able to afford. Have you looked into Whitman's or Trinity's financial aid practices? Do they promise to meet full need, or guarantee strong merit aid to students with your son's stats?</p>

<p>It seems that Trinity TX has EArly Admission which is non-binding. I would think that would be a great option for your S. The common wisdom is that early action increases chances of merit $$ or possibly better need-based packages.</p>

<p>
[quote]
He would be in line for good scholarhips at a few less selective schools, but he doesn't want to get too far off the west coast for a less academic environment.

[/quote]
Not sure whether this statement means you are equating good scholarship potential/less selective schools with a "less academic environment." I wouldn't make that assumption. He can find a solid corps of academically minded peers at many schools. Several of the schools which are strong on merit aid are doing it precisely to attract the academic achievers and are succeeding in this. It has strengthened the academic environment. So there could be good opportunities in this cateogry. It's true that there aren't as many on the West Coast (probably due to the strength of the UC system), but Santa Clara U is one and my hypothesis (based on the famous data point of one ;) ) is that they favor males in their merit $$. Curmudgeon's threads have long lists of such schools and his D overnighted and interviewed at several, finding wonderful academically minded peer groups.</p>

<p>What does your GC say? With top schools, our GC couldn't predict with any certainty, beyond letting us know that our child was in the range and whether or not she looked like a strong candidate, but with the schools that were lower on the list, safeties and matches, she was able to predict with perfect accuracy based on our school's history with those colleges, so we were sure that we had several schools to which our D would almost certainly be accepted. (Note, we had several, not one, just to be sure. The saga of Andison really influenced the way we approached the process.) I know that some schools are very unpredictable (WUStL!) while others can be predicted 100% based on numbers. Find out from your GC where Whitman falls on that spectrum, and how sure it looks for your S. If your school has a deep history with Whitman and charts acceptances/rejections, and if Whitman has been predictable up to this point, and if your son's dot on the flow chart is way, way into the range in which 100% of the applicants from your school are accepted, you can breathe a lot easier.</p>

<p>D applied RD to Trinity and was accepted as their Murcheson scholar - largest merit award which still left around 17K to pay. Their FA is limited, because their endowment is small. They follow the FAFSA SAR strictly to the letter. 2 years ago, they said they were starting to fundraise in order to increase it so as not to lose students to other schools because of $. They said it would take about 5 years for them to be totally need blind and meet 100% of demonstrated financial need.</p>

<p>His choices are safe for admittance, especially if applies to Trinity EA and is accepted. If he is deferred or rejected, well, then you'll have time to throw in some schools with better select numbers.<br>
However, I don't think any of those schools are financial safeties. From what I have seen, you have to be more like in the top 5% of the academic stats to get sizeable merit money unless you have something the college really wants. I recommend you get an online subscription to USN&WR or buy the guide, and look up each of those schools. You can then find out what the average awards are, need and merit, and get some idea what kind of packages (self help %s like loans and workstudy or grants). You might want to look at some of your state school as a financial safety, and some schools where he would truly be top dog and eligible for some merit money and some sweet merit within aid packages that go to the most desired students.</p>

<p>Well, cpt, the OP has said they are looking for need-based aid. She has said that he might earn merit aid at other less selective schools than the ones she listed, but at the moment he doesn't plan to apply to those. Whitman, which appears to be his favorite, meets 98% of need according to CB.</p>

<p>I am on shaky ground here since I do not have current data, and I know very little about West Coast, Southwest schools. Also I tend to be very risk adverse, especially when it comes to money
According to what I have here, which is dated 2003 date, the average percentage of need met was indeed 90% which is good. There is also good merit aid. But the school is expensive, well over $30K, and the average grant is less than half that. The average merit award is about $8k with about 7% of the kids receiving that.<br>
Now I don't know the stats of this individual or his need. I am not sure if Whitman asks for PROFILE which can be a whole different defintion of need, and I don't know if the poster has specifically run the family numbers through the school's calculator. That exercise should be done for each school. I know that I would feel better if there were a lower cost eggs in my basket to consider myself relatively covered. I can't suggest schools because my knowledge and the geographics are not compatible, but in a case like this I would probably include a college that is far less selective where the student is a hot catch, and a low cost state school in addition to Whitman and Trinity where I would say the student is a match, financial aid wise and academically. I've known kids who were turned down at 50% accept schools when they were at the 75% level, especially if the school is need aware.<br>
In addition to adding a low cost school and super safety with decent aid both merit and need based, I would look for schools that are competitive with Whitman and Trinity just to spread the odds. I am pulling names out of a hat now, but I seem to remember Reed and Walla are in the same sort of category as Whitman, and maybe SMU can pair with Trinity. We need our west coast and south west gurus to come up with some good ideas. </p>

<p>When you are looking for good merit/financial aid combos, I feel you need to apply to more schools, especially if the kid ain't gonna go without so much money, not "it would be nice to get so much money". I know most of the kids who are in this situation of need, either stick in a sure financial safety in a local state school or have a number of scenarios including competing schools.</p>

<p>S could do EA at Trinity, and that could give him a breather if he were admitted with a financial aid package that worked - however he is thinking of doing SCEA at Stanford hoping it will give him a bit of a chance at admission (which he realizes is a very long shot). Any thoughts on this?
The other schools all have ED - which won't work for us due to financial aid.
And re: the GC - we have 4 at our large public school and they are all new. The school does not subscribe to naviance or keep scatter grams, so at least according to the GC - there isn't any info avail. about history of admissions to various schools :( EJR1 - congratulations to your D!
And to the poster who mentioned cur - yes our children are similar in the type of schools they like (his D's ACT was higher!) - the only thing is my S would like to stay as far west as possible (which is proving more difficult than he thought!)</p>

<p>Sorry - I hadn't read everything before posting.
Yes - the schools are all profile
Yes - he will qualify for need-based aid, and will need some merit as well or a "100%" school. Our EFC really is about what we can come up with.
I have run the #'s on the schools that have calculators and they all seem like possibilities, but depends on loan vs. gift and of course it's a gamble - always. Is 8 or 9 apps too many?
Stats are: all IB 3.94uw, top 5% of class, a couple national EC's, captain of varsity soccer, #1 varsity tennis, 2010 SAT (retaking 10/14) SAT II Literature= 740, and thousands of vol. hours with habitat for humanity. Has job as weekly columnist for our city paper.
Do you have all the info now?
Your ideas are great and we are trying hard to come up with some true financial safety ideas that he can get excited about. He is on an overnight at CMC and interviewing at Pomona at this moment - but these are so difficult to get in...
Would like him to look at: Westmont, Occidental, Linfield, Lewis and Clark
any ideas / comments?</p>

<p>Orjr, what is your home state? If there is a local/state school that can double as a true financial safety, his list is fine. Usually when kids get into their "dream" schools, the families can squeeze out the money even if it is tight since it is a dream come true. But when you are looking at a match school that is a great school but gaps you enough that you feel it, a full ride from a safety can look pretty darned good.<br>
I believe that your son will get into a number of his choices; it's getting the money that can be the problem. If he gets into Trinity or Whitman for instance, which I am willing to bet he can, and they give him exactly what their need calculators say, using the merit money to reduce loan packages, but still not coming up to 100%, is that going to be something you are willing to do, if he could get into a local/state school with nearly all grants as a top catch? You see where I am going.<br>
A very good friend of mine was in a similar situation as you are. Her daughter had great stats like your son does. Her list was rather top heavy as it would be if you have a chance of getting into schools of that selectivity and you like those schools, since it is such a crap shoot to get into any of them. I think they would have busted the bank to pay for any of those schools, had she been accepted. She was not. She was accepted to all of her match schools, some of them also quite selective. She even got some nice merit money at some of those schools, but they all offset financial aid packages with the merit awards so that the only cost differences came from need methodologies and % of grant vs loan/workstudy. The only exception was the U of Il which was her state school where she had little to pay due to the low rates and a number of awards. But she felt it was too big. As she vacillated between that and other choices, an outside scholarship came through. So she chose Loyola of Chicago. Well, after she told Uof I that she was not going there, Loyola informed her that they were going to cut her package by the outside scholarship after they were notified of the award. Which left her right back to the need package, though the loans were eliminated. She revisited U of IL, found that she could find a small niche for herself there--don't remember if it was departmental or honors college, and managed to talk them into taking her back. </p>

<p>That is the problem when you are mixing need with merit. Really unfair, as those without need get the full merit award as pure desert, whereas in many schools, it just reduces the need award. Now if your numbers/profile are waaaay above a colleges', they may sweeten the pot by letting you double dip a little. They may also be very liberal in defining need, and give a nice package. I know that my son's safety school gave him some nice award money, and a classmate of his got close to a full ride there, his best deal as he also had financial need. Fordham gave the young man need only with grants and loans, Iona gave him full tuition which was more than need and pretty much all merit, and St Bonaventure came up with nearly a full ride of grants. Probably would have gotten better deals from Fordham and Iona but they were local and Fordham, in particular, favors geographic heavily in richness of merit awards. He got waaay over ST B's average awards because they really wanted him. His other choice was a good SUNY school that would have cost him less than Iona if he boarded at Iona , but still more than St B. He could commute to Iona or live at ST B for about the same money which was did not come to a lot of $$. If he came up with more money or borrowed, he could board at Iona or Binghamton or commute to Fordham but with a little more loan money. For whatever reason, another college that was right in the midst of all of this, did not even meet his need, though they gave him a merit award, and this was not as selective as Binghamton or Fordham. So you can see that things don't always go by selectivity. Sometimes you could get less than expected at a school where you would think you are a shining star according to their stats. That's why when you are playing the financial game, you need a number of financial safeties so you have a variety of choices.</p>

<p>Doesn't Whitman have nonbinding EA? I seem to remember a friend's daughter getting in EA there--and I know she got some merit aid. If so, yes, great safety, because it wouldn't be too late to add another college.</p>

<p>If Whitman is of interest, another college in the same group which does offer nonbinding EA, is in the northwest, and also offers merit aid is Lewis and Clark in Portland, OR.</p>

<p>The problem is not that some of the other schools do not have nonbinding EA. The problem is that the young man want to apply SCEA to Stanford as his first choice which means that the only early option he has is rolling admissions, which is why I keep bringing up state schools.</p>

<p>Is he being recruited for sports, that can help a lot. Willamette is a good saftey as well that gives excellent scholarships, my D liked it better than Lewis and Clark or Occidental. The Claremonts are great with aid as well both pomona and CMC. Trinity will also work with you re fin aid especially as they need more males. If you get a better offer elsewhere you can appeal and they are quite receptive. Good luck</p>

<p>Is Stanford truly his first choice? Or is it just something to increase admissions odds? If the latter, I'd forego it in favor of multiple EAs.</p>

<p>BUT - looking at what you posted above, what is his athletic status (soccer/tennis) as it relates to Stanford? Hopeless? In the mix? And at other schools? It would seem to me that Whitman's coaches, for example, could give him a very good read. The "safety" status may stem from his athletic prowess, rather than his academics, which it doesn't look like you've read into the mix.</p>

<p>Seattle U Honor's College offers good merit + need aid, if that might be a school your S is interested in.
Wilammette in Oregon also offers good merit + need aid, if your son has interest in that school.
His stats should get him good consideration for a nice award package. I know kids who have been accepted at both of these Us with good award packages.</p>

<p>Thanks all! The SCEA thing at Stanford is his dream - and I guess we can all have one! He knows it is very unlikely, so he may change his mind in favor of a couple of nonbinding EA apps - I will check again, but I didn't think Whitman had nonbinding EA. The sports: he is not DI so the schools where he could play are Pomona, CMC (he is meeting with these coaches today and tomorrow), Whitman, and maybe Trinity(?) they are pretty high powered so maybe not. Also, he is unsure of the possibility of soccer at Emory. He has heard from alot of coaches at other schools - including Willamette, but somehow isn't very interested - maybe this will change.
The state school is a possibility, but would be very disappointing to him - it is large, slightly granola leaning, and not academically exciting to him. We'd rather see if we can find a financial safety of 5K kids or less with a nice pool of sporty intellectuals who don't drink too much. How's that for specific :) I will check out Seattle U Honors - that sounds like a good lead! Keep the ideas coming....</p>

<p>Just checked - Whitman does not have EA. So the only school with EA is Trinity, except for Stanford's SCEA.</p>

<p>My friend's D had to choose between Reed & SeattleU Honors Program. She ended up choosing Seattle U because the honors program really impressed her & her mom + the award package was MUCH better than any other she received by over $10,000.<br>
Wilammette does have soccer, and a kid we know is there on a merit, soccer scholarship.</p>

<ol>
<li><p>8 or 9 apps is definitely not too many when you are seeking just the right financial package.</p></li>
<li><p>The qx of whether to use SCEA at a reach/almost not possible school versus EA at a match/almost safe school comes up from time to time and you will hear many different views. </p></li>
</ol>

<p>My take, after reading extensively on it, including what the schools say - SCEA does NOT increase your chances at a school like Stanford, even though that is the common wisdom that many are loathe to let go. At many of these top, top schools, the SCEA pool is stronger than the RD pool; the schools say that they do NOT take "lesser" candidates during SCEA. Stanford's statement:
[quote]
Is there an advantage to applying early?
Although our admit rate for Single-Choice Early Action is slightly higher than our overall admit rate (20% vs. 12% in 2005), that does not represent a significant advantage over Regular Decision. Our early pool of applicants is a very strong group and the admit rate is a reflection of that strength, not of any preference on our part to admit students earlier. We remain committed to reserving the majority of our offers of admission for the Regular Decision cycle.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>What I would do if I were you is research the stats for Stanford. This particular school posts a lot of admissions detail on its web site and you can also search the Common Data Set for Stanford to see how SCEA has worked for students of his calibre in the past. </p>

<p>If you conclude as I have said above, I would use the EA at Trinity - because it sounds like you need merit PLUS need aid and I think you should go for the early bird boost. </p>

<p>He can and should still apply to Stanford RD.</p>

<p>All of the above assumes that his athletic qualifications will not be a significant factor (ie, he is a recruitable athlete for Stanford). If he is, I'm sure that changes things significantly, but I know nothing on that subject).</p>

<p>JMO.</p>