<p>Why take their word indeed when a bit of thought about the process may well lead you to the same conclusion? </p>
<p>First off, what they say is plausible given the amount of travel expected of the typical admissions rep. They attend conferences and college fairs, travel to high schools, conduct interviews and are on the road for nearly half the calendar year. (Want to become familiar with every high school, budget hotel and cheap restaurant in a six-state area? Become an admissions rep.) They may or may not get around to talking about one specific person, but they will talk with each other. A lot.</p>
<p>Next, if you are going to play that game rationally, you balance what you stand to lose if caught against what you stand to gain if not, then factor in the probability of getting caught. If applying ED to more than one school, you will certainly be caught if more than one of them accepts you because you will only be able to attend one. If you are not accepted by any of them, then you gained nothing at all and the whole exercise was futile anyway. The only case where something is actually gained without the certainty of being caught is when an applicant is accepted to precisely one ED school where they would not have been accepted from the RD pool. Therefore, it seems to me that the probability of being caught starts out fairly high and increases with each additional ED application. As we have seen in this thread, the downside can be pretty harsh. When there is more to be lost than gained and the probability of losing is high, it is usually best not to play that game.</p>
<p>Additionally, the admissions reps are not the only ones who may catch you at this. You have guidance counselors who are not even supposed to sign off on more than one ED application, ultra-competitive students and/or parents who may think ratting you out gives them a better chance of getting off a wait list, and teachers who may get suspicious if you insist that you must have a letter of recommendation to more than one school in the month of October.</p>
<p>Finally, there is the real possibility that your actions may rebound to harm others who were blameless. This may not concern someone who is only thinking of themselves, but that kind of person would be the first to scream if they found out that someone else had ruined any chance they might have had.</p>