I feel like CB might have been extra generous with their percentiles on the score report to try to get more kids to consider the SAT after seeing their score report. I have heard tons of classmates say they decided to take the March SAT after seeing their score report. It would be to CB’s advantage to fudge the percentiles a little to encourage some kids who might have otherwise taken the ACT.
@Studious99 - wonder what the reports in 2014 indicated about percentiles - hmmm. The percentile estimates on the report do seem rather generous - my son got a 35 on Reading and was listed as 99%ile - I doubt that is the case.
How can percentiles be an estimate? Other than perhaps not having included the tiny fraction of scores where there were irregularities, what is there to estimate in a percentile calculation?
In years prior to 2012, percentiles were given using a sample of current test takers. After 2012, they used complete data from the year prior to the kids using the report. So my guess is, they aren’t using the complete data.
^ So, there could be some big surprises when the final concordance document comes out. I think that if we are advising kids, we should emphasize that we just don’t have enough data to know yet, even if their SI is in the low 120s but they are in a high-scoring state.
I wonder if the data is as skewed as posters think, or if the posters are the skew. How did kids’ PSAT scores compare to their predicted scores based on the PSAT sample and the released SAT exams?
Will a 211 on the selection index qualify for NM semi in Texas according to current estimates?
@mdcmom Thanks for the advice. While it’s disappointing I’ll be missing the scholarship, I am glad to hear that it doesn’t weigh a ton with colleges. I am also from rural, upstate NY. 
Does anyone think that any state’s cutoff will be ABOVE a 223?
I really doubt that a state would have that high a cut-off (223) or even over 221 (the top of the scale is only 228) in all honesty but we can’t know for sure of course til the official announcement in September.
@mathyone @payn4ward I probably did not phrase that well. While PSATs are not part of the admissions process, NMF status is considered by some schools and was a bonus for our older D. She was a high stats kid and we had no money, but the NMF designation was reported and allowed us to negotiate tuition and financial aid packages.
During the back end of the admissions process, as she was narrowing down her schools, we were able to request and receive additional financial aid (in part due to NMF status) because some schools really like to have NMF enrolled. Other schools subbed a NMF grant in for loans (and we were grateful).
My real question, though not well articulated, is how schools will treat this year’s scores? It is a transitional year for everyone and a CB decision that was not requested by colleges. Will they consider a wider band of scores to be high profile kids? Given how some schools ignored the SAT writing test, I think there will be some atypical handling of these and the SAT scores.
I disliked CB before, but that’s intensified.
@CA1543 I got a 32 on the reading and it lists me as 99th percentile!.. (I got 36 on writing though, so my overall reading score is 680). This does seem a bit low to be in the 99th percentile, but last year I got a 65 on reading and even that was still the 98th percentile, so I don’t know… Maybe a lot of people just score really poorly
@sat225 Where did you find that a 32 is the 99th percentile? I don’t think this was on your official score report. If it is based on the preliminary concordance tables, I’m not so sure I would trust those completely. College board has already said that they will release final concordance tables in May.
Louisiana had an SI of 211 last year. Any predictions of what it will be this year?
@jerzmaster The score report says that my reading score of 680 was in the 99th percentile. So oops, my bad… Maybe the 32 was a lower percentile and my writing score just raised it for my overall reading score
that’s exactly the scores my son got…36R + 35 W + 37 M and he got a SI of 216 on the report in Indiana. This is our first rodeo…a little confusing…and relies on a lot of patience with the timing of all this. We are hesitantly excited.
@sat225 That makes sense now. I think it would have been great is CB would have told everyone what percentile they are for each of the 3 subjects. The NMSC is based on the 3 subject scores and not the 2 subject scaled score (0-1520).
I think the table provided by testmaster is still high. Here is another point to consider:
Bear in mind, I don’t know how to reconcile the concordance tables and some people are deliberated about the number of juniors who actually took the test. However, if a 1390 is the lowest total score (I believe) that is reported to have earned a 99th percentile ranking, we can make some observations. I didn’t calculate all of the combinations, but for a 1390, the SI can range from 201 to 221 based on the individual scores in R, W, and M. The concordance tables show a 1390 to equate to a 204 on the old test. This seems really low, but still the 1390 falls in the 99th percentile. Maybe, we can estimate that the mode (or most likely SI) for the 1390 is around 210. If you calculate the possible SIs for the other totals (1400,1410, etc.), the range closes a little and the most likely SIs can be guesstimated. So, for states that typically are below the 99th percentile, you could say that they are safe with 210 or higher. Unless, we determine that even the students in these states will need a score in the 99th percentile with this new test.
Sorry, I meant the range of SIs for 1590 is 201-215.
@micgeaux I think if you really want to convert your current PSAT score to previous year PSAT scores, you need to do it by section. Converting the scaled score is not necessarily the best way to convert. Here is a copy of a post from a different discussion (disclaimer: I think the preliminary CB concordance tables are a not accurate and will be revised when the final table is released in May):
How to convert your New PSAT score to prior year PSAT scores:
- Go to page 4 of the College Board concordance tables (https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/psat-nmsqt-preliminary-concordance-tables-2015.pdf)
- Convert your 3 test scores to the 2014 and prior scores using the tables.
- Add your converted scores up to determine you 2014 and prior selection index.
- Compare your 2014 and prior selection index to a prior years cutoffs (here is a link to last year’s NMSF cut-offs by state http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-semifinalist)