Students are finding websites that are using this prelim concordance table to calculate state cut-off scores and I think they are getting discouraged to find the scores so high. Maybe it’s better to be disappointed now and then surprised in May or September? Not sure… I’ve always been an optimist. 
@jerzmaster wrote
I concur. I have some benchmarking data-- my 2 kids:
Son1 took old PSAT in 2013 (max possible subscore = 80)
Son2 took new PSAT in 2015 (max possible subscore = 38)
By some weird karma, the boys ended up w both identical subscore PERCENTAGES and PERCENTILES, 2 years apart. << It must be “nature” since they went to different highschools >>
If I simplistically upscale S2’s 2015 PSAT score by the 228:240 ratio (i.e. 0.95), I actually end up with S1’s 2013 PSAT score-- which does not jibe at all with the CB’s prelim concordance table.
Ok, we threw out the %iles. Now we throw out the concordance table. Nothing left to go on :))
%iles point to cutoffs going down in mid range (210-215 SI)
Concordance table indicates cutoffs going up in mid range.
I was betting cutoffs going up, thus on concordance table, b/c the number of high scorers locally.
Maybe only the local kids did well and somewhere else past high scoring kids did worse to compensate. I don’t know…
LOL @payn4ward … you have 8 months to wait it out! We will need to figure out a new hobby until then… although I am enjoying these discussion boards very much!
There was a student who started a thread asking what people use math for in real life.
I should have responded that parents use math to crunch numbers to guestimate whether their kids are remotely in the running for scholarship money, so the parents can retire before age 95.
@GMTplus7 I read a student post that he heard almost half of the test takers are scoring in the 99th percentile and was worried about what this would do to the cut-off scores. I wasn’t sure how to respond or how the student could have scored so well on the PSAT. I think maybe you and I have some job security if the youngsters aren’t as good at math as they should be. This will help us keep jobs until 95 to get them all through college.
So, do these preliminary concordance tables seem high to anybody else? I don’t think they’re accurate. I guess we have to wait until May.
It sounds like everyone in this thread is overlooking a pretty obvious issue here: NMSF is GOVERNED ON YOUR SELECTION INDEX, not PSAT SCORE. Converting your subscores to last year’s PSAT subscores is ABSOLUTELY USELESS. Your best bet is to look at the researchers at Test Masters and their table… I think they know what they’re doing far more than we do.
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
Uh… why then do you think we’re all even bothering to mention SI?
Ughhhh, perfect math score and messed up Verbal gives me a 1430 but a 210!! 
@flashk I am in awe of my kids all the time too! My wife and I keep it too ourselves just so they do get “big heads” about it.
I’ve been reading all these PSAT cutoff predictions for days with interest. I’m not a number crucher and there are clearly smarter folks that me here. But, I think people need to keep a few things in mind that make it difficult (foolish, even) to pick a precise number for each state’s cutoff in a prediction:
(1) Each state’s cutoff has fluctuated historically by a couple of points. For example, we live in GA, where the score has moved up and down between 218 and 214 over the past nine years. Sometimes it has jumped up or dropped down as much as 3 or 4 points from one year to the next. So any prediction list using last year’s numbers could be off by as much as 4 points. In GA, too high by 4 points because last year’s cutoff score was 218, the highest GA ever gets. So, any prediction list has to be a range, rather than a pinpoint score.
(2) Some states may be likely to do better than others on this new redesigned test. The new PSAT and SAT are aligned to the common core. If you live in a state that has more fully embraced the common core, you might have an advantage on the test over kids in states that have not. Thus, your state’s scores will be higher and so will your cutoff. You may also live in a state that has more aggressively pushed use of Kahn Academy and test prep for the new tests. If so, your scores and your score cut off might be higher. We just don’t know whether all states have performed on the new test as they have historically.
@jerzmaster Go online and when you get to the scores for the 3 sections, look to the right of the words ‘test scores’ which is right above the box with the 3 scores. to the right of ‘test scores’ it will say ‘show details’. you have to select this to expand and see the percentiles for the 3 scores. You can only see this online. I initially missed them because I downloaded a copy of the report and saw other posts that you had to view this info on line.
I heard that the letter of commendation gets sent in April. Is that true? If so, if you don’t receive a letter of commendation in April and have a higher score than the commendation cutoff, are you safe to assume that you are a semifinalist? (I mention this so we don’t have to wait till September to find out if we are NMSF).
You will not receive a letter in April, unless you are a homeschooler. Letters go to the principals, listing all students who meet the cut to move on to the next level. They are asked to verify name spelling, and school status. Some schools won’t even tell the student they arrived. But this cut, which is eventually “leaked” via CC (point by point), has in the past, ended up being the commendation cut. All bets are off this year, with so many crazy changes!
P.S. Letters DID go out in the past in April, but they stopped that a few years back. We did not get one in 2014 (class of 2015).
@PAMom21 Thanks! I wasn’t sure about this whole situation-- I really hope that we don’t have to wait nine months to find out if we will be NMSF.
Unless students have a really good score, a “sure thing” so to speak, they will be waiting. My son ultimately cleared our local cut by a decent margin, but even with that, I was on the edge of my seat for quite some time. PA had jumped 3 full points the prior year. You will have a better idea though come April, and maybe even in February if they still release state reports. It’s a long ride, but believe it or not, you will be able to put it out of your mind after this dust settles. If you think you or your child is close, start checking out the available scholarship packages in addition to other options. Hang in there! I feel your pain. Been there, done that.
@paveyourpath Thank you! To me, that is the most relevant information out of anything proposed. The way I look at it is if you are in the 99th percentile in EVERY subject, you have to be in the 99+ percentile for your total score. Some students will make a 99th percentile in one subject and a much lower percentile in another, so to achieve a 99 percentile in each subject has to be more rare and at the top. I went back to the 2014 and the 2012 scoring sheets. In 2015, my son scored in the 98th percentile for math and writing and 99th for reading. If I look at the lowest score for each subject WITHIN THAT percentile, he would have a 217 on the old test.
I can’t understand why the concordance table is “preliminary”. What new PSAT scores or PSAT data will the college board have before May that they haven’t had for months already?
Just saw this post and am linking because things get buried so easily on these threads. http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19165844/#Comment_19165844
College board is providing GCs with percentile rankings for 2015 SI. But not decimal places. They still want to string everyone along.