It validates some of the comments and analysis done here about the score percentiles being reported by the CB and what they are based upon – so hmmm really feel there is a bit of an effort of CB to make a range of students feel good – but if the NM Semi-finalists are still only 16,000, isn’t CB really risking making a large number of students & parents really upset in September? If we can learn more next week based on what data is used in the reports the GC’s are getting (actual, sample sample or pretend cohort of students), that might help but for now likely little more to be gleaned or really estimated in terms of any State cut-off scores. The articles talks about them going down but the Test Masters predictions seem more in line with the great work & thought process of the CC’ers here!
@MS2015 Thanks, yes, you are right. It’s just that we live in MD, a high cutoff state. Her CR score dropped from last year and other areas improved a bit to kind of make it a wash.
@CA1543 Thanks for posting this article. It’s very interesting. One thing to note, for those who have not yet taken the ACT, is there is alot of frustration on that side of the fence as well. For those who have not experienced it yet, be prepared for what could be a lengthy delay in scores. They release results twice a week for what could be two months. Test results were released on christmas. no results were released the following wednesday because they were on vacation but then they released again on new year’s day. Take the ACT with writing and you get your mc score on one of the two weekly release dates and then within two weeks they will post your writing score.more kids than ever are taking the ACT because of the uncertainty of the “new” SAT. College process is stressful enough for these kids and the waiting game of test scores will make you crazy if we don’t keep it all in perspective.
@paveyourpath Your are preaching to the choir on the ACT delay situation and the other recent issue is huge variation in grades on the essay. You can see the ACT threads. My son took it with accommodations in Oct. & just got scores today!! They refused to issue MC part till writing was scored and we waited 6-7 weeks for scores - very stressful bc he really can’t fit in another time easily to retake it. Turned out very well though so a relief. I hear the March SAT is not recommended - should give things some time to settle down. Hard though for class of 2017 to navigate through all this.
Would you guys agree that a 220+ this year will be enough for states up to ones like Ohio and Illinois, where the cutoffs were around 215 last year? And that cutoffs for states this year with cutoffs that were 216+ last year may be around 216-226? If so, then maybe we can focus on states with higher cutoffs last year, like Maryland/California/Massachusetts?
@CA1543 But if your kid did as well as some of the kids did here on the new PSAT - the March SAT is a no- brainer and totally worth trying out. My son did really well on all the official practice (new) SATs. They could go the other way and make it much harder, but its a risk we are willing to take. I think the CB is tired of the bad PR- so hopefully it won’t make the first test (which will have a lot of press) super different or much harder than the PSAT (which is a representation of the new SAT).
Several folks have raised the issue of scores being higher because the verbal section is now an easier set of vocabulary. Wouldn’t the scaled score accomodate this? I think the two measures for percentile is the greatest cause of uncertainty. I agree since the top score is now 228 that scores should be lower, though not by 12 points. Long time until September. DD 215 (36R, 36W, 35.5M)
Just for fun, I took PA’s qualifying score of 216 from 2015 and broke it down several different ways (80/80/leftover, equal/equal/equal, etc), and the spread on the new scale ranges from 209 to 216. The 216 came from having equally split scores of 72 each. (Someone probably already tried this, but I wasn’t as up to speed on the concordance then, and there are too many pages to weed through!)
@PAMom21 Yes, but if the cutoff ends up right in the middle, some kids who would have made it in old PSAT won’t make it with new PSAT. We are already seeing a few students who scored > 220 as sophomores are scoring worse S.I. this year.
Absolutely @payn4ward!! I just started playing around with projected cuts based on this math, and it looks to me like scores won’t have much movement. My prediction for commendation lands at 201/202, the 99th at roughly 211, and our top score somewhere around 218/219. The top seems to be squashed together more than the bottom, if that makes sense. I am merely curious at this point, as I don’t have a horse in this race so I won’t do all 50 states. PA ends up at roughly 213 though.
I’m still trying to process the change in profiles and am confused at times whether I’m going forward or backward (and wonder therefore if my logic is on track or wrong). Math really messes things up, as there is clearly a difference in the scoring based on where math lands.
One would have to consider whether a typical NMS profile is lopsided with verbal, math, or is more balanced. If it’s balanced, the higher projections may be more accurate.
I think I’m doing something a little bit different @GMTplus7, in that I’m taking old qualifying scores from past years, and converting them to current scores. The table you linked shows possible SI’s for current scores, correct? I’m using the CB published concordance as a link between the past and the present, and seeing what info that gives.
