National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@Plotinus How does this PSAT math compare to the official new SAT practice tests?

Many of the students I work with would struggle with that decimal math, sad as that is. I think it’s relatively comparable to what I’ve seen on the 4 released practice SAT tests though. Knowing how many 80 level scores there were in the past, I find it hard to believe there won’t be many 76’s this go around. Surely not all of those 80 level kids were so calculator dependent!

I wonder too how many students got hung up in the wording. After doing all 4 practice tests for the SAT, I realize how easy it is to skim many of these word problems. For kids that weren’t exposed though, time might have been lost going through all the verbiage.

@CA1543
I will be happy to ask our GC for whatever we need. Question
what exactly do I need to ask her for? I will have to be specific otherwise I will not get it.

@Tgirlfriend - I could email you a few screenshots I took from the CB webinar. Will PM you. Thanks!

@Tgirlfriend, one question might be if the Selection Index Percentile for a student as shown on GC reports is from actual test takers or from a research sample. A GC would likely have to contact CB for the answer. While we now know that the SI % Table is from a research study, it would be nice if GCs could retrieve the “real” SI %. If so, we can get enough data from GCs across the country to produce our own SI % Table from actual test takers.

A previous post indicated NY had an actual mean of 1010 total score vs the 2015 Guide of 987 mean from their research sample (if I’m remembering the details correctly). That says to me, the GCs are able to retrieve some actual data from real test takers.

Does that make sense?

@Speedy2019
that makes perfect sense to me. Now to get our GC to understand and give me that information. I will see what I can do and post here what she gives me.

From what I’ve seen on the files sent to GCs, I don’t think that GCs got a different SI % than on page 11 of the understanding scores. So, I think the answer to that question “Is Selection Index Percentile for a student as shown on
GC reports from actual test takers or from a research sample” is research sample.

I seriously doubt they gave GCs a different SI % than on that table. It doesn’t make sense.

@Plotinus I guess I just assumed they scored the tests and reversed engineered the scores giving the weights to create the distributions they wanted.

When I read the speculations that there will be too many students in a certain bracket, it seems illogical to me. They know the percentages and breakdowns they need by state before they release the scores. I think the breakdowns will look perfectly “acceptable” when they are released bc they controlled the weighting.

@suzyQ7, of course you could be right. BUT, if GCs can retrieve the real SI %, we can put our own table together.

I’m waiting for the GC to call CB and say “enough with the made up numbers, give me my school’s real numbers!”

@Speedy2019 @Tgirlfriend – I understand the national “mean” total score for the 2015 Oct. PSAT is 1010 & NY is 968. That’s all I have gotten so far.

@Speedy2019 CB already replied in tweet that S.I. %iles are from research sample.

The chance of CB giving “real” data and GCs calling CB for it when they have million other more important things to accomplish by September (when all things will be known) is less than that of winning power ball and getting struck by several lightnings the next day.

What percentile would 226 be and what SI score is safe enough to start celebrating in CA?

@WorryHurry411 Um, yes. Safe to start celebrating. Congratulations and get out of this crazy thread!

@PAMom21

I have different kinds of students, but some of them definitely would have trouble with this kind of decimal calculation and some definitely would have no trouble whatsoever. I used to let the calc-addicts enjoy their addiction. Those days are over.

@suzyQ7 I have to go back over my notes to give a complete and reliable comparison of the real test math to the practice test math. Here are some incomplete and not wholly reliable impressions:

  1. On the whole, the math was pretty similar. Several questions were more or less clones.
  2. On the whole, the real test math felt easier. There were more easy questions.
  3. Many questions felt like ACT questions. There are questions that never could have been on the old SAT because they are completely straight-forward and untwisted.
  4. I was a little surprised by no-calc question 8. It is very simple mathematically, but requires an unusual logical inference I have not seen on previous tests, including previous SAT’s, ACT’s, etc. It seemed more like an aptitude question, and not like the rest of the test. I would be curious to know the percentage of students who got that one right.
  5. There may have been a couple of question types not covered by the practice tests, but in the same general area as the questions of the practice test. For example, there was a conditional probability table data problem. I don’t remember well if these were in the practice tests too.
  6. One thing that bothers me is that CB is still putting questions on the calculator section that can be solved by copying the question into an algebra calculator. To add insult to injury, CB is marking these questions “hard”. Looks like the people over at ETS do not know much about CAS calculators (or don’t want to know
)?
  7. There is plenty of verbiage. This was true also of the practice tests. People who don’t like verbiage won’t like it.

I wonder why the 2015 curve is easier at the top in math than is the 2014 curve because the 2015 math is so much easier. Maybe to compensate for the fact that students could not prepare as well?

@CA1543, yep you are right.

@payn4ward, BUT it would be nice if GCs can retrieve the real SI %. Also wish I didn’t spend $40 on the recent $1.5 Billion lottery. Knew I wasn’t going to win.

Plotinus, On 6) I think the kids who can copy the question into TI CAS and solve it should count as math-competent.
It’s hard for those who can do neither, by hand nor with CAS.

I do not know how to use CAS but can do everything on SAT math without a calculator within the time limit. old schooling. A college kid who can do either way is acceptable.

@Mom2aphysicsgeek
You can definitely fudge data with scoring curves. When I said there would be too many high scorers, I meant too many to reliably rank students based on the ability to handle high difficulty questions, not too many to carry out the NMSF selection process using scaled scores.

@Plotinus Sorry I wasn’t clearer in my post. My reference to the posts speculating an inability to have typical NMSF breakdowns was not at all directed toward you. Among the different threads, numerous posts have speculated that the numbers won’t work. I do not believe that bc I believe there is now way they would have released them without knowing that they will. :slight_smile:

@Plotinus, “I used to let the calc-addicts enjoy their addiction. Those days are over.”

Exactly! I used to tell them to do whatever got them the answer the quickest, even if that was what I’d call a “calculator cheat” (graphing two functions to jog their memory about translations, etc). A big change for the new format is they really need to know what is going on with the math now, and can’t just stumble on the right answer by default.

On a positive note though, I used quite a few actual SAT problems with my current algebra 1 student just last night. He might as well see how this all comes together, right?

“they really need to know what is going on with the math now”
@PAMom21 There are still problems on the calculator section for which they DON’T need to know what is going on with the math.

“even if that was what I’d call a “calculator cheat” (graphing two functions to jog their memory about translations, etc).”
You can do much more than that with a CAS calculator.