National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@childishrambino – Please see this list of NM Semifinalist State by State cut-off scores: http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/NationalMeritSemifinalist2016-scores.pdf
Georgia was 218 last time. I think it will likely be a little lower for the 2016 PSAT test takers.

Yeah the concordance tables aren’t really making much sense… I’m in the top 98% (which usually qualifies for nmsc in my state) but the concordance tables say that my score is equivalent to a 197 last year, which is a lot lower than I think it should be.

Also, I got a 680 on both sections this year, but last year I got r-65, m-62, & w-76. If you add zeros to those, add them up, and divide by 3, the average section score would be 676 2/3, so slightly lower than this year (and if you do it by averaging the reading & writing first, it’s 662.5) so it doesn’t make much sense that my score this year would equate to a lower score than that…

I got a 208 this year in Nebraska. The cutoff last year was a 209. Because the total score went down by 12 point (5%), I assume the cutoff score will also go down by 5% to a 199. So this would mean I would qualify right? Obviously this isn’t how the cutoff is chosen but I think it’s a pretty good estimation. What do you think? Is my logic here solid or am I missing something?

I hate to be that guy, but just to confirm, a 220 SI score is on the bubble for California correct?

@LAD2266 IMO (note it’s just my gut feeling), 220 for CA has 50% chance of being the cutoff SI score. Up in the air, as they say.

@LAD2266 that’s my general feeling after stalking these boards all afternoon. My kid got 219 so I’m right with you.

217 SI Score from KY here, 1460 raw. Concordance table shows equivalent of 219-221 on the previous exam, with the cutoff for KY at the time being 210. Is my logic correct in suspecting that a 217 would be passable for NMSF?

@DWilliam Yep that logic is sound.

@mom3eps 216 in AZ will almost certainly be semi-finalist.

Is this 220 si score on the 228 scale or 240?

@DWilliam You made it for sure since you are in KY.

So what is the cutoff for receiving an asterisk beside your SI score?

@shiftydraw It was on the new scale out of 228, but when I converted it using the concordance tables it was still 220/240 which is weird.

I’ve been searching online for info but I’m more confused than when I started! (New at this!) Some are saying lower scoring states will have a higher cutoff than last year but others are saying cutoff will be a few points lower than the 2014 cut off.

We’re in NC, 220 SI, 1450 TS-99%tile (750 r&w-99th%tile, 700 math-98th%tile, 37 reading, 38 writing&language, 35 math.) Any help/guidance would be be greatly appreciated!

220 should be safe in all states except NJ/DC.

Crossing my finger as my son got 221 (VA).

Great! Thanks!

My son got 224, should be OK in NJ?

should I be worried about a 216/1430 in Florida?