National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@HCMOM65 Yes, it is school specific.

Doesn’t that wording of “typically below” just allow for the possibility that sometimes the commended cut-off, which is determined by a national percentile, is the SAME as the lowest state cut-off? We saw that last year. So typically lower, but not always.

@paveyourpath

@paveyourpath The “typically” part is there to cover the lowest scoring states, where to get all the way down to the number of allocated NMSFs, they might have to go below the 3% nationwide commended level.

@SLparent, I was referring to the post where you said “everyone has to take foreign language, science, history, and electives but none of that is part of the NMSF equation.” They aren’t testing your knowledge of history. They are trying to test your potential for success. The point is to see if students have the basic skills to begin college level study, perhaps even in fields they didn’t encounter in high school. Reading and writing are required for all disciplines. Math is only required for some areas.

And actually, they are testing foreign language. When the English teachers won’t teach grammar, it becomes the responsibility of the foreign language teachers–as @payn4ward noted above. Whoops, just saw you said AP language, not foreign. So I guess some English teachers are teaching it.

@paveyourpath Someone in this thread stated that their relative was NM on a score that was lower than the cut-off. No way that happened. The cut-off is a single number and well publicized. Everyone at that SI number and above in that state is a NMSF. In the different states the SI number will be different.

Moving from NMSF to NMF is more opaque. You have to submit paperwork; you have to have a certain SAT qualifying score; grades for 9+ matter, etc.

Ok. Stupid question du jour. Is the average the same as the mean?

Cobb’s data says the National MEAN is total 968; Reading/Writing - 468 Math - 464.

But the student score report says the national AVERAGE for USER is total 987; R/W - 489 and Math - 498.

yes Mean = average. From online resource— The “mean” is the “average” you’re used to, where you add up all the numbers and then divide by the number of numbers. The “median” is the “middle” value in the list of numbers. To find the median, your numbers have to be listed in numerical order, so you may have to rewrite your list first. The “mode” is the value that occurs most often. If no number is repeated, then there is no mode for the list.

So, that means the actual mean is lower than expected -going by the User mean (published on score reports)???

I think you need to look at the Cobb data again.

Sorry, I was looking at the tenth grade table.

The “national” references are useless (kids who do not typically take test test lumped in) – “user” references are from a research study sample but not I think are not actual PSAT Oct 2015 test-takers – do not seem all that reliable either but we’ll see. Only significant scores public right now are from GA - Cobb county - http://www.cobbk12.org/news/2016/PSAT2015.pdf
hopefully the state summary reports will be out soon (should be within a week or so I think) so we can (Kinda) stay sane by having more real data to chew on 
 :slight_smile:

Given all the problems CB has been having - score delays, rescheduling the SAT in a number of locations - I’m not hopeful that they are going to be publishing those state tables “on time”.

Not to mention canceling the SAT in China and Macau this weekend due to rampant cheating. College Board needs to get their act together.

They are getting their act together. The cheating has been going on for years. They are finally doing something.

Have they stopped reusing old US tests in China?

Anyone have any feedback about Oregon scores? It would be so wonderful if my student could go to one of the Honors colleges offering tuition and/or a full ride to SF/F.

@DoyleB well, likely they have stopped reusing tests now, since the old SAT is officially dead now, lol. (Except for the east coast kids that got snowed out).

@suzyQ7 This January test reused June 2014 one. I suppose they could not bother to make a new old one.

So people think the May test in China is going to be a new test and not a recycle of the US March test or a pre-cycle of the US May test? That would be refreshing.

An SI of 217 is 99+
so does that mean I may have a chance in CA for semi-finalist? Doesn’t 99+ mean 99.5 percentile or greater?