@JuicyMango, I believe 217 is the cutoff prediction from testmasters and prepscholar. You definitely have a shot at SF.
Personally, I’ve been expecting all state cutoffs to go down. The Cobb school district data gives me pause though on that expectation. When the state summary reports come out, we can all refine our predictions.
@JuicyMango , actually 217 was for Texas. CA is higher according to testmasters. But you still have a shot.
GC at my son’s school gave me this info. National Tested Mean 1009, State Mean (Florida) 1075, School Mean Score 1202. It is a small private school graduating around 60 students a year, producing around 3 to 6 NMSF a year. My son’s score 1480 SI 220, a friend’s same 1480 SI 220, another 1470 SI 218, another 1450 (unknown SI), another 1430 (unknown SI), and talk of another 3 to 4 with scores in the range of 1430 to 1450. I suspect SI for these students to be on low end of what would be expected given TS because it is a math heavy school. My concern is why is Florida’s mean score so high? Typically, Florida does not have mean scores significantly above average as far as I know. How does this impact the state’s cut off score? When considering NMSF cut off, I understand that you are just concerned with scores of top 1%. For example, DC has low mean scores but very high cut off scores because DC’s top 1% is a unique group. Still I am concerned that a high mean score for Florida this year would suggest that Florida’s cut off will be higher than anticipated. What do you guys think?
@Speedy2019 who publishes the state summary reports? does it come from CB or NMSC?
The Cobb report has the avg as 1018 for GA. @AJ2017 's FL info has the avg as 1075. Testmasters predicts that GA’s cutoff is a pt higher than FL’s. I don’t know historical avgs. Is that typical?
@AJ2017 I’m suspicious of the Florida mean number you were given. Last year Florida’s averages were Reading 48, Writing 45.8, Math 48.5, for an average SI of 142.3 Georgia’s equivalents were 48.8, 47.8, and 49.5, for an average SI of 146.1. And sure enough, GAs cutoff of 218 was 4 points higher than FLs cutoff of 214. For the last 5 years, Florida’s cutoff has been 3 or 4 points lower than Georgia’s.
Georgia average of 1018 this year vs Florida at 1075? And Florida well above the national average? Skeptical. A state changing performance in such a dramatic way usually doesn’t happen. Unless a significantly different population took the test this year than in previous years.
I agree. That is why I am actually posing a question on this thread rather than just following it without ever making a comment. The source is pretty reliable. Actually published in a school newsletter. I am not referencing it here because I am trying to maintain some semblance of privacy. But unless it is a typo, it is accurate. It also says that the Florida mean for 10th graders was 1019 and for 9th grader it was 961. Crazy, right? What do you think?
@AJ2017 Wonder if in Florida there was any change in the population that took it bc only offered on a school day, if more schools offered some prep or any other basis for such an increase. http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/ - ← predicts cut off of 215 for Fl but that might be low if lots of scores come in in he ranges you are mentioning. Just as a another little reference point - NY mean is only 968 per our GC - likely skewed bc NYC public schools took the test - not sure what occurred across the state,
I have no data on how many test takers there were last year compared to this year in Florida. There has been no drive to offer more test prep courses of which I am aware. If anybody knows that info, I would be curious.
However, this information makes me even more skeptical about the percentiles published in the PSAT Understanding Scores 2015. I do not understand how the mean score of such a large state could be at the 75 percentile. Particularly, a state that has not had high scores historically.
One reason for the high FL average might be that the State discontinued the NCLB-aligned Sunshine State Standards about two or three years ago and introduced Common Core-aligned FSA/Florida State Assessments that focus heavily on evidence-based reading AND writing. The old state assessment, FCAT 2.0, was last administered in 2014. 2015 saw the new FSA as well as end-of-course exams in Algebra I and II, Geometry, US History and Civics (for some cohorts).
I agree that changes in the Florida state curriculum and administration of a different test might result in better test scores for Florida students relative to other states. But it is a pretty dramatic change and the percentiles, whether user or national representative sample, seem off and misleading.
@AJ2017 with post #1306, you mentioned “The source is pretty reliable. Actually published in a school newsletter.”. So the info is public. Could you just provide the link?
The info went out in an email to all the parents and I really doubt that the info is incorrect because the student body would hold the school accountable. The parents are well educated and knowledgeable about PSATs. However, if seems that this data about state mean scores are currently available to GC. Other people in Florida or in other states can just call their GC now. I would encourage people to do that because I suspect they will see pretty quickly how misleading those percentiles are. I can not imagine that just just Florida is such an aberration.
@JuicyMango - my D also has a 217 SI in CA. I think the summary is, if the percentile tables are accurate, then 217 is pretty definitely above the cutoff, and we’re in. If the concordance tables are accurate, then 217 is pretty definitely below the cutoff. So obviously, they can’t both be right.
My sense / the general consensus is that the concordance table will be closer, and so we’re probably both out of luck. But no one can really say anything with any degree of certainty right now. There’s definitely a chance that 217 makes it in CA, but maybe it’s like a 25% chance…
State summary reports are located here: http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr
They have data going back to 2000.
From CB regarding State Summary Reports: “Aggregate reporting on the PSAT from the October 2015 testing is not yet available. Typically the current year data would become available in late February here, but I am not sure if reporting will be delayed this year due to the introduction of the redesigned assessment.”
here = http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr
Okay…I am confussed. I have asked our GC several times if she has any information such as what GA posted and she is saying 'NO". BTW…I am in Texas. Does the GC have it and not giving it to us? Has anyone in Texas seen this mysterious information?
Why give GCs info that is not providea to the student? Did the GC pay for the test? Nope. I did. College Board is so unbelievable.
Okay. So looking at Florida’s state summary for last year, Florida test takers accounted for around 22.5% of all test takers. I would not anticipate that percentage would change so much for this year. Florida schools already participated at a high rate last year. Someone please check my math and interpretation of that info. Somehow the mean of 22-23% of test takers is in the 72 or something percentile. Is that statistically possible especially given that Florida has not historically had high test scores? Can someone please check with their GC to confirm Florida’s mean score. Those published percentiles seem very misleading.