@DoyleB, I do understand what you are saying about GA. As I said in a previous post, Cobb school district has given me pause in my thinking.
But, think about the scoring curve for the first practice PSAT and the first Real PSAT in October. The curves vary. They have to attempt to set the curves to match something. Could be historical data, could be research study. Has to be something.
@AJ2017, I don’t have a problem with Florida being in the 70% percentile nationally if that turns out to be the case. Just means that some other state’s mean is at the 30th percentile. If 1075 mean is correct and the national is 1009-1010, whatever it turns out to be, some other state will be at 940ish.
NY’s mean is reportedly only 968. 
Well, certainly NY could help balance it out. As someone calculated earlier, Florida students accounted for around 4.4% of test takers in 2014. If other states with large amounts of test takers had lower mean scores, it could make sense. It just surprises me that Florida would have been so far above average on this test.
It’s been mentioned briefly upthread, but since the new PSAT is closely aligned to Common Core, whether and when states adopted Common Core could have an effect on scores this sitting.
@likestowrite, well I’m not into the conspiracy theory that scores are inflated to make more people take the SAT. My daughter is taking ACT and will only take the SAT if it looks like she might make SF. When the state summary reports come out and the commended number in April, she will have enough data to decide if she has a shot and then whether to take SAT.
Your second point is quite possible. Having 10 points between the states will seem “more fair” than having a 20 point gap between the states. You have a good point. But how does that compression occur? By setting the curve for RWM to achieve that goal. And it is plausible to think that could be the goal.
But it is also plausible that CB sets the curve to match a target that their research study produced.
@Speedy2019 I would not use the term “conspiracy theory”. I can see it from the perspective of the CB. CB is a company that is rolling out a new product that they feel is great and also is similar to the ACT. If delayed actual percentiles encourage more students to give this new product a try, I am sure they would consider that good for the consumer and good for the business. A win/win. I am Definitely not saying that this is the case. I am just a mother of a junior… That being said, this reasoning makes sense to me. (It also makes sense of the anecdotal 3 mothers of fairly average test-takers who have recently said to me “I thought my dd/ds would only take the ACT, but their percentage score was so high on the new PSAT that I have signed them up for the new SAT in March.”)
I do agree with you that they might have set the curve of the Oct PSAT to match their target research. I think we probably both agree that the CB has set the tables the way they want them to be set. My hope is for the lower cut off and SI % to be true. It’s just that both sides of the concordance vs SI % debate seems reasonable.
Fingers crossed it is the lower cut off!
I have expected the FL cutoffs to go up consistently since 2 years ago, due to the new Florida Incentive Scholarship.
The state gives NMFs the full cost of attendance at any Florida State University System school, or its equivalent to attend an in-state private (for as long as the legislature funds the program). That’s over $80,000 total. To go towards your in-state school of choice. Any Florida kid with potential who is in the know is going to seriously prep for the PSAT. Therefore, those top scores WILL rise.
@Speedy2019, You probably get the “secret sauce”. Keep posting, I enjoy your analysis
It will be really interesting to see if and when the states with lower means adopted Common Core. Just judging from my daughter’s improvement from 2014 (mandatory as 10th grader and after only one year of CC-like standards) to 2015, I want to bet that the Florida curriculum has a lot to do with the higher state mean.
Edit: I just remembered a connection between CC and CB - see David Coleman: https://www.washingtonpost.com/apps/g/page/national/the-people-behind-the-common-core-state-standards/1086/
Edit II: Teachers in our district tend to like the new Florida standards because they make students think and truly understand rather than rehash memorized items, which were a staple of No Child Left Behind.
For newcomers on this thread, I’ve been compiling real scores from real junior test takers and sort them by state. Disclaimer: it’s not 100% accurate bc it’s difficult to read peoples messages and decipher the data, also there maybe some typos, but for the most part, it sb fairly accurate for you to look at to see where you’re placed comparing to other CC’s.
Today, I went on prepscholar website and read people’s questions about their chances of making NMSF’s. So, I compiled a separate list of their SI’s and sort by state. When I read these questions, it confirmed to me that CC’s are very high achievers…the questions on prepscholar presents another population… still very high scores but it feels a little lower.
I’m keeping the 2 lists separate for now but I will merge them eventually. If you see errors, please let me know & I will correct.
From CC’s:
luvmy3girls 220 1470 AL
chewy7083 217 AL
3dixieboys 209 AL
arizona 223 1500 AZ
tanyat23 223 1490 AZ
zeeke007 218 1460 AZ
mom3eps 216 AZ
phoenixmomof2 212 AZ
zeeke007 1490 AZ
srk2017 228 CA
chocaddict 226 CA
nightlark 226 1510 CA
sdhotmama 226 CA
srk2017 226 CA
worryhurry411 226 CA
hidude45454 225 CA
calmomofcats 224 CA
cybexx 224 1500 CA
lovethebard 224 CA
ynotgo 224 CA
srk2017 222 CA
srk2017 222 CA
stresstasticlife 222 CA
appgodxoxo 221 1470 CA
picola 221 CA
LAD2266 220 CA
masond123 220 CA
replyback 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
srk2017 220 1480 CA
alexcheng10 219 CA
hittingthat 219 1480 CA
leafseadragon 219 1460 CA
fisik 218 CA
ambitionsquared 217 CA
dsl411 217 CA
hcmom65 217 CA
juicymango 217 CA
livingproof 217 CA
bdragon 216 CA
confusedhs213 215 CA
cornbread1999 215 1450 CA
tikopiarock28 212 CA
chrispychop 210 CA
mangomadness 206 CA
replyback 1480 CA
replyback 1490 CA
ctstrider 225 CT
cglynn 223 CT
chilkitty 223 1490 CT
theamazing77 213 1440 CT
blue1artic 203 1380 CT
aptrail 225 DC
candjsdad 1490 DC
tableforsix 225 FL
doraemon33004 223 1490 FL
3boystogo 222 1490 FL
mitrak 222 FL
AJ2017 220 1480 FL
AJ2017 220 1480 FL
AJ2017 218 1470 FL
samgallahan 218 1460 FL
proudpatriot 217 FL
2blessed2b 216 1430 FL
delilahhxc 216 FL
long2181998 216 FL
atr123 215 1440 FL
canadant 215 FL
calchong 212 FL
mom2twodds 210 FL
AJ2017 1450 FL
AJ2017 1430 FL
AJ2017 (3-4 people) 1430-1450 FL
lea111 224-226 1500 GA
lea111 226 GA
stingray2000 225 GA
primenumber2 222 1490 GA
childishambin 218 GA
raiderdore 218 GA
yakisoba 216 1450 GA
gabaseballmo 212 GA
futuremmachamp 218 IA
kyrieirving2 211 1380 IA
franklin20 207 IA
jake071999 224 1500 IL
daven 223 1490 IL
asianfang 222 IL
ivysaurusrex 222 IL
dotexe 218 IL
WGSK88 218 IL
glassflowers 216 IL
ican’tsleep 214 IL
jay12321 211 1420 IL
destin4harvard 210 IL
jcdeiskating 210 IL
kikidee9 216 IN
andre 211 1430 KS
jjutgen15 211 1420 KS
datahead 1480 KS
dwilliam 217 1460 KY
vandyalum93 214 KY
mompop 212 1410 KY
vandyalum93 211 1410 KY
sportsman88 215 LA
mlp139 228 MA
bluekou23 222 1480 MA
walnuthill 222 1480 MA
tarantiny 221 1470 MA
tigraci 221 MA
flyingoat 220 MA
massmom 220 MA
eminem99 200 MA
ackack 222 MD
burstlimit 222 MD
aron 217 1450 MD
clarebeatrice 206 MD
greeneggsandsam9 206 MD
fun1234 222 ME
celica 223 MI
marccoreusi 208 1400 MI
profdad2021 204 1380 MI
mamelot(for friend) 226 MN
mnpapa29 222 1480 MN
mamelot 220 MN
laikadoodles 218 1470 MN
mraustere 215 1440 MN
boglebuff 217 1440 MO
kcedition 211 MO
123field 210 MO
earlvandorn 211 1410 MS
earlvandorn (for son’s friend) 207 MS
liveonlife 205 MS
paveyourpath 223 NC
racmpc 220 1450 NC
disshar 218 NC
payn4ward 199 NC
ananmatisse 209 1390 ND
drewhamahill 208 NE
suzyq7 221 1480 New England Boarding school
crusoemon 1440 NH
hades321 225 1500 NJ
momnjof2 224 1500 NJ
shiryc 224 NJ
fambrughini 221 NJ
chembiodad 219 1440 NJ
cbow17 212 NJ
ro2400 211 NJ
realtwinkie 208 NJ
rustroll 217 NV
trig2017 221 NY
CA1543 218 1470 NY
mcw2017 215 NY
liibigidiot 213 1430 NY
zaarp 213 NY
srod99 211 1400 NY
starjoy8 195 1260 NY
mdcmom 194 NY
aaronuhs 225 OH
flashk 223 1490 OH
enforece88 220 1470 OH
garyasho2 220 1480 OH
milfordeagles 219 1470 OH
sberry26 218 1440 OH
ohiodad51 213 OH
evan99 213 OK
studious99 222 OR
danc3rmrm 218 OR
kjflhd 228 PA
engineur 215 PA
classof2017 206 PA
gghteah 204 RI
irishtwins 206 1340 SC
dakotadelsuf13 206 SD
likestowrite 222 TN
smilingalong 220 TN
higheredrocks 215 TN
isalck32 211 TN
mkumar17 210 1420 TN
curlypie99 ? 1490 TX
maksbow 227 TX
toxichash 226 1510 TX
cardinalcyn 223 TX
sb2017 223 TX
micgeaux 221 TX
tgirlfriend 221 TX
itsgettingreal2017 219 1470 TX
cgsarat71 218 1470 TX
sammieb 216 TX
sciencenerd2017 216 1440 TX
micgeaux 215 1440 TX
eljefe123 214 TX
ross 213 1420 TX
ctaylors6 212 TX
slparent 212 1430 TX
svoll123 211 TX
slparent ( friend) 209 1420 TX
tayemach 197 TX
slaudsmom 220 1480 UT
novadad99 221 VA
thinmints 220 1470 VA
jrkick64 215 VA
waldeizhere 225 1500 WA
picuberoot 222 1490 WV
oechols 201 1300 WV
eragon314 226
lovesmath 226
bobbbb 225 1500
collegefreak 225
footsondaughter 225
sincerelove 224
ketchup 223 1480
jjundy 221
merething 221
ananyadoodles 220
timenchanter 220
mtrosemom 219
knowledgeless 218
mtrosemom 218
perch1024 218
chew7083 217
wvuhopeful 216
pnwfam 214
stlmo62 213
amyandscott 211
joewellen 210 1430
nwmom2boys 210
phudou193 210 1370
pannaga 209
pannaga 208
smileydinosaur 205
addalinemore 204 1350
buffalo 203
szgardengirl 200
js1029 198
nillupa 192
mphiltx 189
hopeforthebest 1200
@dfbdfb Re Common Core – I was able to find a little info about impact o common core (on NAEP) –http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2015/03/24-common-core-loveless
"The non-adopters are the logical control group for CCSS, but with only four states in that category—Alaska, Nebraska, Texas, and Virginia—it is sensitive to big changes in one or two states. Alaska and Texas both experienced a decline in fourth grade reading scores from 2009-2013. "
Additional tidbits about Common Core that are relevant to some of the comments made about the PSAT sections & effects on SI’s
– “Girls score higher than boys on tests of reading ability. They have for a long time. This section of the Brown Center Report assesses where the gender gap stands today and examines trends over the past several decades.”
Re common core states vs. nonadopters “Taken together, the 2011 and 2013 indexes estimate that NAEP reading gains from 2009-2013 were one to one and one-half scale score points larger in the strong CCSS implementation states compared to the states that did not adopt CCSS.”
No idea if this correlates with he PSAT data - but it is interesting to see.
@SLparent …we know if several scores from Texas…202…198…190…friends of my S
joy 223 ??
dave 222 1500 ??
jj 220 CA
henry 219 CA
ross 208 CT
ehtan 223 DC
ethan (twin )223 DC
levster 210 FL
tom 210 FL
daira 218 1470 GA
tammy 214 IL
luhar 211 IL
pat 210 IL
amy 208 IL
emma 211 KS
benjamin 203 KS
amanda 215 MD
hilary 212 ME
anshul 198 MS
stef 198 NV
chacob 216 NY
nancy 206 OH
sam 206 OH
joe 206 TN
zola ?? 1350 TX
aamir 222 TX
gary 213 TX
jason 212 1410 TX
tim 211 TX
sarah 216 VA
@3boystogo I’m in FL and my oldest was a NMF class of 2015 and we never heard of the Florida Incentive Scholarship. We knew UCF offered full rides for NMFs but FSU never mentioned anything for NMFs. It wouldn’t have changed her mind, she’s at Liberty with a full ride but her fellow classmate NMF chose UCF because of the full ride. There needs to be a better way of getting info like this out to students, especially Sophomores. Poor GCs are so overloaded, and ours is fantastic, that they can’t be expected to do it.
@Tgirlfriend I will add to the list… the more actual scores, the better bc we can see real scores…I’ll update the excel file and will send out an updated file periodically… so keep up the good work 
Perfect PSAT is an endangered species?
@WorryHurry411 I mentioned two 228s in your other thread and somepeople mentioned they know a couple. So at least 4 228s within CC community or friends.
@SLparent I got a 210/1400 in KY, but you have me down for IL instead of KY. I don’t know if this makes much of a difference to your chart, but the more accurate the data, the better.
240s were always pretty rare also.