National Merit Cutoff Predictions for Class of 2017 for TEXAS

Test Preparation
161

@SLparent,

KY SI 211 is important, since it is compared to 34 ACT, and 34 ACT is the start of 99+%tile.

With 34 ACT you get full scholarship at UT Dallas, see link http://oue.utdallas.edu/aes/

Score 34 ACT is associated with highest award scholarship at UTD based on standardized test scores, It is significant to me - I am aiming to UTD

If it’s true then 211 will be the new lowest 99+%tile instead of 214, more chance to get NMSF this years for me and your D

Ah hah, more chance to @CorpusChristi 's kid too

And @Tgirlfriend , no worry with 221 go celebrate early

162

@dallaspiano Cry! Cry! My D got a 33 on ACT…(36,35,24,36)… she bombed on reading because she didn’t get to the last paragraph & she bubbled all A’s for all questions of last paragraph :frowning: 10 more minutes would be great.

And now more tears a 23 on the essay! Several of her friends all got 23 including one with with 221 PSAT! I feel so sorry for class 2017!

163

@SLparent, with 33 ACT and possible NMF award (if 211 true), she will get more free everything (tuition, room&board, books, fees and etc…) plus $200/month in cash at UTD

164

Does anyone know if you have to do anything besides score well on the PSAT to become a NMSF? I think I’m good for the cut with a 1480 and 221 SI, but I am a bit confused about how the process works. Is there an application I have to fill out beforehand?

165

@Aztreas no applications or forms until the SF’s are announced. There will be a few things that need to be done to advance to finalist status, one of which would be to have your SI score “vetted” by taking the SAT.

The guidebook will give you the details on process:

http://www.nationalmerit.org/student_guide.pdf

166

@SLparent…still no essay score yet on the ACT. @dallaspiano…UTD gives a full ride for 34 ACT score? Really? My S had a composite score of 34 on the ACT. 34…36…34…31 science killed him. Our school is not strong in the science area. @SLparent…PSAT…I sure hope you are correct. I would love to take a deep breath.

167

@Tgirlfriend
With 34 ACT you get full scholarship at UT Dallas, see link http://oue.utdallas.edu/aes/

168

Normal distribution or not?

When I made an analysis in msg #156. My assumption is based on Normal Distribution of PSAT scores and I also reserved a small corner - just in case the PSAT behaves Not Normal Distribution.

But I found an article, with the link
https://northaveeducation.com/understanding-psat-scores/, written by Scott Clyburn on Jan 15, 2015

He wrote “The scores always follow a normal distribution”. What a relief…

So we can use Matthew Bognar app, just for TX cut off estimate
http://homepage.stat.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/normal.html

  • For 1,724,416, TS 1395.25 or 1400, SI 209.004 ~ 209 (at 99.052%tile)
  • For 1,638,195, TS 1391.92 or 1400, SI 208.504 ~ 209 (at 99.002%tile)

TS 1400 and SI 209 are the starting points for NMSF hopeful candidates (Normal Distribution)

Just in case TX scores can be a little aggressive, we can modify by saying

TS 1410 and SI 210 are the starting points for NMSF hopeful candidates (still Normal Distribution)

NOTES: it’s necessary and sufficient to use both TS and SI to determine your hopeful NMSF status, since there are many anecdotes if using only one

169

Why am I promoted to Member from Junior Member? Hm Hm

170

@dallaspiano Would you be in a position to predict the NMSF PSAT cutoff for New Jersey, California, and Virginia, based on your statistical analysis for Texas? Thanks.

171

An all boys private high school in Dallas had 58 of its senior class of 92 students receive Commended or NMSF including 25 Finalists. Strong.

172

@kantmakm, that must be St. Mark. No surprise, school for the rich, the famous, the smart descendants of North TX
"The National Merit Scholarship Program has honored two-thirds of the Class of 2016, naming 27 seniors Semifinalists and 31 seniors Commended Scholars. Statuses are based on each student’s 2014 PSAT/NMSQT scores. "
http://www.smtexas.org/page/News-Detail?pk=775816

Look like you have some connection to St. Mark HS?

173

Some important Statistic points for PSAT scores, cited from
http://www.utdanacenter.org/k12mathbenchmarks/downloads/15_isyourscorenormal.pdf

  • On Normal Distribution Typically, a larger sample size renders data that fall into a normal distribution curve. Since a large number of students took the test, it is reasonable to assume the scores were normally distributed
  • Why the mean score and standard deviation on the PSAT may differ from year to year? While scores on the exams may be normally distributed over time, scores for particular years may have unique centers (means) and spreads (standard deviations). In fact, such variations from year to year are expected.
  • Can the mean score on the PSAT be the same for two years but the standard deviations different? Yes, two normal distributions based on actual data may have the same mean but different standard deviations. Mean is a measure of center, whereas standard deviation is a measure of the spread of the data. For example, if two people took the test and both scored 150, their mean would be 150, but the standard deviation of their scores would be 0. The next year, two people could score 140 and 160. Their mean is still 150, but the standard deviation is 10.
174

Take a look back at charts posted by, showed Mean is ~120 and it shifted to far left

http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-2-2016-national-merit-semifinalist-cutoff-score-texas-estimate/

@canjsdad in his post (#3106) said Mean is 135.6

While CB Mean is 148.

In simple words, higher Mean indicated students do better in scores

But TeamMasters Mean 120, how can they do well in the upper 219???

If TX students do well, then Mean has to go far right and it has be in 155-160

175

@dallaspiano …had to step away for awhile. UNT has a pretty good scholarship for NMF. It is a contender as of right now. Okay…now what are you predicting Texas NMSF cutoff at now? I leave the technical numbers up to you…I just follow and watch.

176

@SLparent,
There was time you said: “if TX Mean is lower with same SD”, then there is more hope - SI cut off goes down 1 or 2 points

Year 2014 (based on state report)
For whole US (2014) Mean was 141.9 and SD 30.7
TX Mean is around 135.2 and SD 30 - done by extrapolation
Year 2015

For whole US (2015) Mean was 148.0 and SD 26.0
Estimate: TX Mean is around 144.0 and SD 25.2 - done by extrapolation

177

TX cut off? Refer #167


[QUOTE=""]

1440, AND >214: happy swimming

[/QUOTE]

178

Effect of lower Mean and lower SD

Based on 220,000 eligible test-takers in TX (close approximation) - ~5% unqualified test takers

SI……….PSAT 2015………Lower Mean & SD….Out of 1353 NMSF for TX
…………(M 148,SD 26)…….(M 145, SD 25.5) ………………………………
214…99.44……………….99.659 …………… ~750
213…99.38……………….99.617 …………… ~843
212…99.30……………….99.570 …………… ~946
211…99.23……………….99.518 …………… 1060
210…99.15…………………99.460 …………… 1188
209…99.05……………….99.396 …………… 1328

Lower Mean and lower SD were estimated by extrapolation from PSAT 2014-2105 data table for TX state(http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/2015/TX_15_05_02_01.pdf)

NOTE 1: need combine with TS (in msg #167)

NOTE 2: it’s necessary and sufficient to use both TS and SI to determine your hopeful NMSF status, since there are many anecdotes if using only one

179

@dallaspiano I thought you’d be interested in looking at data from HISD. The means from HISD are lower than TX and TX means are lower than the nation.

However, there are a lot of private schools in Houston with kids score well on PSAT. Plus, there are target kids from HISD that get subsidy for prep class from HISD that do very well on the PSAT, so this explains the large disparity in scores.

http://www.houstonisd.org/site/default.aspx?PageType=14&DomainID=8269&PageID=38527&ModuleInstanceID=82738&ViewID=1e008a8a-8e8a-4ca0-9472-a8f4a723a4a7&IsMoreExpandedView=True

180

It’s good to have your link