Speculation is that Clemson, FSU, and Univ. of Miami may be considering a move to the SEC.
It really depends upon the money. Additionally, the design of the expanded CFP college football playoffs is a factor.
Notre Dame’s Athletic Director heads the CFP revision committee and the SEC commissioner is also involved. Some feel betrayed by the SEC commissioner who was secretly negotiating with Texas & Oklahoma while sitting on the committee to revamp the college football playoffs. Did he dupe the Notre Dame AD ?
I kinda enjoy those late night late Fall/early Winter matchups between Washington State-Oregon State in the snow. 
Especially when Leach was at Wazzu.
If Clemson and/or others bolt for the SEC, then the AAU ACC schools would be foolish not to head to the B1G.
Similarly, the AAU PAC schools, particularly USC seem to want to join the B1G.
What we are likely to see is an NFL/AFL type arrangement. The SEC as a super conference of non-AAU schools and the B1G as a super conference of AAU schools. The B1G championship is the Rose Bowl, the SEC rotates between Dallas, New Orleans and Atlanta. The final pits the two champions in Vegas.
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Great post. Interesting thoughts.
What are your thoughts about Notre Dame ?
I forgot to add that the SEC and B1G/PAC also have their own television contracts that are distinct, just like the old AFL/NFL.
Re: NotreDame, I think they would prefer to be with the B1G for geography and academics, if forced. Plus, if a PAC alliance or merger happens, then other than the service academies, all of their natural rivals would be in that alliance.
Again, this is all predicated on Clemson and others leaving the ACC for the SEC, IMO.
Clemson and FSU have denied any interest in going to the SEC. Definitely something to take with a grain of salt.
But in terms of Clemson, why would you ever leave the ACC unless it was in clear danger of falling apart? They had made the playoff every year other than the first year. They have lost something like 3 conference games in the last 6 years. They are sitting pretty in the ACC. So why join the toughest conference in college football where college playoff trips would not be a given? Unless you think the ACC is going to die, not sure why they would want to do that.
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Money.
Clemson would leave the ACC to join the SEC for a substantial (100%) increase in annual payout.
New SEC payout may be about $70 million per team. Current ACC payout of $33 million is about half of that figure.
The Power 5 Conference payouts:
Big Ten = $54.3 million per team
SEC = $45.5 million per team
Big 12 = $38 million
Pac 12 = $33.6 million
ACC = $33 million
https://footballscoop.com/news/heres-how-much-each-power-5-conference-made-last-year
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So all teams join one conference and call it the Big10 and they make the most money. Call it the ACC and they make less. Its more complicated than that.
Yes, it is more complicated than that.
The Big Ten wants AAU member schools that will add value to the Big Ten brand.
When the Big Ten last expanded by adding Rutgers & Maryland, the University of Missouri campaigned vigorously to get an invitation to join the Big Ten. Even the governor campaigned for an invitation. After the Big Ten refused, Missouri went to the SEC.
Currently, Iowa State & the University of Kansas are seeking Big Ten bids, but may not receive invitations even though AAU member schools due to a lack of increasing the brand value.
Also, some current members of a conference may not want certain teams admitted in order to protect a recruiting territory. And, of course, distance may be a factor. Unlikely that the University of Washington would be interested in joining the SEC due to long travel times.
ESPN would have to allow any member to leave the ACC since the buyout is supposedly hundreds of millions, according to a couple of articles I came across. ESPN/Disney could allow it but doesn’t look like that’s happening at least now, if they did though, it would be only to have the ACC/SEC super conference.
“Notre Dame, I think they would prefer to be with the B1G for geography and academics”
Anecdotal for sure but ND alums think they have more in common with ACC for academics and culture, I mentioned Duke, Wake Forest, BC, Miami, smaller private colleges with good academics. The big ten is also a much tougher conference to wade through to get to the playoffs, even if they expanded to 12.
“The Big Ten wants AAU member schools that will add value to the Big Ten brand.”
Sure, but that doesn’t mean every team does, Rutgers and Nebraska add little to the brand, maybe even denigrate it. Big 10 is not going to admit it publicly but Nebraska was not a good addition. Rutgers did get the big 10 network into NYC area, and Maryland does have a good basketball program and strong in some non-revenue sports.
“Clemson and FSU have denied any interest in going to the SEC. Definitely something to take with a grain of salt.”
I think they’re probably smart to not say anything given the contracts they’re in, ACC and ESPN. Criticizing ACC is one thing, criticizing Disney is another.
Rutgers was a huge get for the Big Ten in term of what counts = entrance to the nation’s largest media market.
ESPN has the rights to both the SEC & to the ACC. Any issue regarding a move to the SEC by Clemson, FSU, and UMiami would be evaluated thoroughly by all parties involved. (The issue is money, not coming up with a miracle cure.)
Rutgers brought the greater NY TV market and follow on cable subscribers.
Maryland brought the DC and Baltimore markets and their cable subscribers.
Nebraska is and was considered a blue blood based on the Tom Osborne years, as quaint as that may seem now.
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Big Ten TV contract with Fox expires in 2023.
Pac 12 TV contract with Fox expires 2024.
Will NCAA disappear leaving Fox, ESPN, SEC, & Big Ten to run the business of college football ?
Top 20 TV markets:
SEC = #5 Dallas-Fort Worth, #7 Atlanta, & #8 Houston (#23 St. Louis & #34 Kansas City)
Big Ten top 20 TV markets if merged with Pac 12:
#1 New York City
#2 Los Angeles
#3 Chicago
#4 Philadelphia
#6 San Francisco
#9 Wash DC
#12 Seattle/Tacoma
#14 Minneapolis-St. Paul
#15 Detroit
#16 Denver
#19 Cleveland
#20 Sacramento
#21 Portland, Oregon
Remaining top 20 TV markets: #10 Boston, #11 Phoenix, #13 Tampa/St. Pete, & #17 Orlando
FWIW Honolulu is at #67
New rules make it easier for college football players to transfer schools. Combine the transfer portal with NIL (name, image, & likeness money opportunities) and many teams fear loss of best talent to super-conference-in-the-making SEC.
RUMOR: USC, UCLA, Oregon, & Colorado seriously considering a move to Big Ten.
Unsubstantiated Speculative Rumor:
In response to SEC changing logo to: $EC
Big Ten considering logo change to Big $$$$$$$$$$
Lots of silence regarding potential moves from one conference to another. Might mean that serious negotiations are being conducted. Please post any news, rumors, or college football related desires regarding realignment. (Apparently black coffee & CC are not enough for me at this time of year; I need college football news/rumors/speculation.)
It’s interesting that there is sooooo much discussion around TV outlets at a time when the Olympics were more accessible than ever, resulting in TV ratings that sank 60% most nights. NBC had to give away advertising to make up for lost viewer guarantees.
I’m not suggesting that college football will lose fans, but the idea that they will engage via television is risky. ESPN has serious content problems and is facing the loss of “guaranteed” cable money as streaming and services replace basic cable. The idea that they are going to pay billions and billions in the future isn’t guaranteed.
The NIL opportunities also create some interesting questions around player engagement and personal branding. Will the All-American reject interviews after the game so they can post paid content on their own channel? Will they avoid ESPN because Fox has then “under contract” for their weekly talk show? Pandora’s box has been open for 10 seconds…the unintended consequences are going take years of unfolding.
The financial models are compelling, but they are likely unsustainable. The notion of USC joining the Big 10…are USC field hockey and softball going to fly to Newark to play Rutgers? If they join the “west region”…Minneapolis and Chicago aren’t really that much closer.
AD’s with their 7 figure salaries are going to do everything in their power to grab all the money they can…but at some point this is all going to come crashing back down to earth.
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Athletic Director compensation:
Highest paid is Vanderbilt’s David Williams at $3,230,000
Before moving to new position as Conference Commissioner of the ACC, Northwestern’s Jim Phillips earned $2,065000
Notre Dame’s Jack Swarbrick = $2,548,834
https://footballscoop.com/news/heres-how-much-each-power-5-conference-raked-in-last-year
Scroll to bottom for last year’s Power 5 Commissoner pay. (Big Ten figure of $10,300,000 for Jim Delany includes retirement bonus.
@EyeVeee: Thank you for posting. The Olympics had no headliners. Gymnastics & men’s boxing were far less than expected.
Those numbers are insane. You can’t tell me that you couldn’t get capable AD’s for 1/3rd those numbers. It’s the standard corporate play…you overpay others to increase your own salary. The chancellor says “look at the BB, football, and AD salaries…I’m worth more than that”. The University Health system throws off some big numbers…so things don’t appear soooo crazy…and then the spiral just goes up and up and up.
High salaries, huge payouts,and next to nothing for the athletes until now (NIL).
Goodbye NCAA ?
With respect to Notre Dame and the Big Ten, I suspect that the Big Ten could offer to pay Notre Dame’s ACC exit fee of $100 million to $150 million and recoup it in just one year under the soon to be negotiated new TV rights deal.
As I noted above: A report indicated that the Big Ten asked Fox network to model Big Ten TV rights fees under various scenarios. Any addition to the Big Ten will be with the knowledge of how much Fox is willing to pay for the TV rights.
I agree. I think ND should run for cover before NBC or someone else pulls the carpet out on them.
There is an ROI calculation on paying the fee or playing out the agreement. At some point, schools might be better off announcing their intentions and letting the conference implode without paying to get out earlier.
If ND said “we’re joining the Big 10 in 2025”, or if a few Pack 12 schools said “we’re leaving in a few years”…it could start a series of decisions that might get them out sooner without paying too much.
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