POLL: What do you call a college a student has a pretty good chance of getting into?

Applying to College
1

We again want to hear from you! Take our poll below and help us find the best word to describe a college a student has a pretty good chance of getting into.

What’s the best word to describe colleges that a student has a pretty good chance of getting into because their stats and other qualifications are around average compared to admitted students?
  • Match
  • Target
  • Best Fit
  • Other (please share below)

0 voters

3

Such a college could be a

  • Reach (e.g. 4.0/36/1600 unhooked applicant to Harvard).
  • Match.
  • Likely.
  • Safety (e.g. announced automatic admission that applicant meets).
1 Like
4

If you define “pretty good chance” as about 40-60% chance of admittance, I would call that a Match.

If you define it as about 60-95%, that would be a Low Match. So I would go with Low Match. (This is what @ucbalumnus referred to as “Likely”)

A Match, to me, is a coin flip – you have a decent chance.

High Reach: Powerball odds / successfully throwing a football through a standard window frame from 40 yards
Reach: Say your prayers
Low Reach: league-wide MLB batting average
High Match: A good hitter’s average
Match: Flip a coin
Low Match: Pretty good chance/likely. A good free throw shooting percentage.
Safety: Closest thing to a sure thing (holistic admissions) or actually guaranteed at schools with auto admission hurdles (if you clear them…)

How do we figure out a person’s chances?

  • Look at the admit rate in the round in which you will be applying. This is where you start. (so for Harvard… start at about 3% if you are applying Regular Decision. High Reach.)
  • Compare your stats (what we can know, like GPA, rank, and SAT/ACT score) to the reported admit stats from last year. If you have average stats for admits at that school, your chances are going to be pretty close to the average. If they are above average, maybe a little better. And if worse… maybe a little worse.
  • Bump the chances up a bit if you have hooks.

The part we don’t really know is how the holistic schools will view your qualitative aspects: letters of recommendation, essays, extracurriculars. We also don’t know the schools’ needs, or if they may be practicing yield protection. That makes it difficult to achieve anything approaching certainty in chancing admission to holistic schools.

1 Like
5

former hs just updated and now uses the word Foundation ? not sure if that will stick.

1 Like
6

I would prefer to use the following approximate descriptors:

  • 0% = unrealistic reach
  • 1-4% = high reach
  • 5-19% = reach
  • 20-39% = low reach
  • 40-59% = high match
  • 60-89% = match
  • 90-99% = likely
  • 100% = safety

Note that these apply to admission with affordability. If an applicant needs a large enough merit scholarship to afford the college, the reach … safety assessment must be based on the scholarship, not admission. Similarly, if the financial aid situation is complex (i.e. not one where the college’s net price calculator can give clear results and the inputs are accurately known), the chance of the financial aid offer being favorable must be included.

The following need to be considered:

  • Moderately selective colleges sometimes have transparent admission data for past cycles or automatic admission thresholds.
  • For GPA, check how the college uses it and how it recalculates it if it does. The weighted GPA from your high school is often exaggerated compared to what colleges use.
  • Check if the college admits by major or division. For example, SJSU admitted many applicants with weighted-capped GPA of 2.6, but those applying to CS at SJSU needed a 4.3.
  • Minor hooks (legacy, URM) should not be assumed to move a college to an easier category (e.g. reach → match). Some colleges do not consider them at all. Those with major hooks (large development, recruited athlete) probably have a good idea of how much they help. Unhooked applicants to smaller colleges should assume that their chances are lower than otherwise assumed because recruited athletes consume a larger portion of the class.

How LoRs and essays compare in the eyes of admission readers is opaque to the applicant and those advising them (or writing the LoRs). Regarding yield protection, the college’s common data set section C7 does indicate whether it considers level of applicant’s interest. If so, playing the level of interest game for that college may be necessary, especially for an “overqualified” applicant.

1 Like
7

Would anyone define 50% or less odds as “pretty good”? (Casinos would love that).

In my personal understanding, closer to 2:1 odds are pretty good (66.67%).

8

Right, so Low Match/Likely

9

I would love it if “best fit” was more frequently discussed, but just because a kid can get in, doesn’t mean it is the best fit.

3 Likes
10

Non-existent?

(just kidding!)

1 Like
11

I prefer Target. Match sounds more like it’s a sure thing. Target sounds like you have a good chance of hitting it, but you might miss, too.

Best Fit is another thing entirely.

9 Likes
12

We use Likely for schools kids are likely to get into (over 70% acceptance rate, and kid meets or exceeds standards).

I don’t like the term Safety because it feels like counting your chickens. It can also encourage students to see themselves as “too good” for that school. S24 and I do sometimes compare schools to say which one is a safer bet. But it’s best to remember that the outcome is out of our hands no matter what term we use!

4 Likes
13

Even when the college has pre-announced automatic admission criteria (including for the major if applicable) that the student meets, and the college is known to be affordable?

14

S24 doesn’t have a school on his list that has pre-announced automatic admission criteria. The question above says, “pretty good chance of getting into.”

15

What schools have this? I have heard that there are some less selective flagships but they probably wouldn’t be affordable for anyone out of state or who doesn’t qualify for big merit. If you use this definition of safety then most of the kids in the country can’t have one. I don’t think there’s a school in the northeast like this. It’s a useless definition.

16

Some public schools (not necessarily flagships) in states like AL, AZ, CA, IA, MO, MS, NM, NV, OH, SD, TX, and probably others have automatic admission and/or scholarship criteria listed on their web sites.

1 Like
17

What do you call them??? Lucky!!!

18

Ok, so your definition works for some students who live in those 11 states which are mostly in the south and west. I assume not every student meets the thresholds so there would be no such thing as a safety for them. Finally, how about students east of the Mississippi who don’t want to go to Alabama or Mississippi? Again, no safeties for anyone using this definition.

19

I don’t believe you have to live in, for eg, AZ, to qualify for auto admission.

1 Like
20

I don’t think there’s a lot of kids in the east looking to go to AZ. Yeah, there are some but most prefer to stay closer to home.