<p>Luvmygirls, I do hope you are right! I’ve been (over) analyzing the numbers and data all weekend, and if I had to make a prediction for PA, without my son factored in, I think I’d go with 216. A drop from a statistic standpoint would not surprise me. However, I don’t want to bank on anything when we are the mercy of the College Board Powers That Be here, and it did have that +3 jump last year. I hope for your sake, and that of akashaka’s brother that 217 is in! </p>
<p>One thing that concerns me is that I can’t make sense of why some states are higher to begin with, and keep worry that someone will want to bump PA up with MD, since they have similar data elsewhere.</p>
<p>219 in Texas, so the waiting begins! Texas’ cutoff was 219 for the class of 2012 and 2014. Please oh please let the cutoff NOT set a new record high again next year! </p>
<p>Seems like lots of the high scorers felt the test was a bit harder this year, so I am hopeful the cutoffs will stay the same or drop. I HATE waiting. But DS thinks his 219 will do the trick, so he is taking it all in stride. Good thing he has me to stress out on his behalf!</p>
<p>PAMom21, LOL at your “(over) analyzing the numbers and data” comment. I can so relate.</p>
<p>PAMom21, there are several reasons driving the state to state variance in cutoff scores.</p>
<ol>
<li>Some states have better overall education than many others. Eg, MA</li>
<li>Some states have a very large population of super bright top students, extreme skew at the high end. Eg., DC, CA.</li>
<li>Some states satisfy 1 AND 2.</li>
<li>Some states emphasize the test so that sophomores and even freshmen already take it for practice and prep for it. In other states, it’s almost all juniors seeing the test for the first time.</li>
<li>The most important factor, I believe- NMSC selects 0.5% of graduating senior class in each state as NMSF(I think they use public school #s to arrive at a total, but not entirely sure where they draw their data from.) In some states as many as 80% of juniors take the test. In others, like ours, only a third of juniors take PSAT. That means they need to select 1.5% of test-takers to get the desired number of NMSFs, which tends to drive the cut scores down, even if you imagine that higher proportions of bright kids are taking the test.</li>
<li>States that emphasize the test usually are the same states that have high %age of juniors taking it, so 4 and 5 are reinforcing.</li>
</ol>
<p>Son got a 220 last year as a sophomore, didn’t study at all (I wanted him to take it cold), CT cutoff was 221. Waiting for this year’s scores from his school, he thinks he did well and did take some practice tests and also studied vocab – he thought cr was harder this year and math was easier, assuming CT cutoff and most states will be the same or a point or two lower. No way it is going to be another historical high, not two in a row.</p>
<p>Celeste, thanks for the great info. I’ve been reading and learning a lot, and understand this process so much better. My son had a 209 as a sophomore, and has been notoriously weaker in CR (he’s a math kid), so I didn’t want to get my hopes up in any way, so I didn’t read very much until he got his score last week. I read through much of the 2014 discussion, and it also had lots of great insights. I appreciate what you’ve added to that, and am feeling cautiously optimistic at this point.</p>
<p>Barfly, I’m grateful for the company! Best of luck!</p>
<p>I have a quick question; I got a 240 (MA) (and still can’t really believe it), and am wondering if there is anything special about a 240 compared to a 224 or some other qualifying score for semifinalist. That is, in terms of becoming a finalist/scholar, is there any difference?</p>
<p>countingkg, I don’t think there is. Once you get past Semifinalist, they basically ignore your score. I don’t understand why, but that’s the way it is I think. If anything, they may require a higher SAT score, but I doubt it. Congratulations though!</p>
<p>PSAT scores today! California, 99th percentile. 229 total. 80 Critical Reading, 72 Math , 77 Writing Skills. Generally pretty pleased, my first SAT score last May was 2130, so when I take it again in January I hope to see at least a 160 point improvement!</p>
<p>Kinda sad that I won’t get semi-finalist since last year’s was 219. So close, yet so far away. CR really messed me up. Proctor was chewing on chips the first 5 minutes of testing which kinda distracted me. I’ll live.</p>
<p>nainaigogo, you may make semifinalist. Won’t know until September. It has bounced up and down before and it is definitely possible that the Texas cutoff could go back down to 216! Good Luck!</p>
<p>celesteroberts, thanks for the summary above. My understanding of the way cutoffs are determined is a little different from your #5. As I understand it, they look at how many graduating seniors each state has, and what percentage that is of the number of graduating seniors in the entire country, and each state gets that percentage of the 16,000 semifinalists. So, for example, if Big State X has 10% of the nation’s graduating seniors, then Big State X will have 10% of the National Merit Semifinalists. If Little State Y has 1% of the graduating seniors in the nation, then Little State Y will only have 1% of the semifinalists. The cutoffs are based on what score will get the desired number of semifinalists in the state. The state summaries on the College Board website are interesting. Some states have very few test takers and a very high percentage of the test takers then make semifinalist. Other states like Texas have many test takers and only the top 1/2 of 1% (or fewer) will make semifinalist.</p>
<p>D2 got 230–in boarding school in PA so it’s the highest cutoff but will make it! D1 ended up with a full tuition 4 year scholarship from being a NMF, for which I am intensely grateful. Doubt D2 will end up that way given the colleges she’s likely to apply to, but it’s still very nice…</p>
<p>NC was 215 last year, down slightly from its all time high of 217, so I don’t think the 211 is going to make it. Don’t get your hopes up, and if it does, you’ll be pleasantly surprised. You will most certainly be commended, and should be proud of those scores.</p>
<p>The GC had emailed last week with the total score. Just got the score report with the particulars yesterday. His sophomore year SAT confirms the PSAT score as it was higher, so I think that he is finished with SAT stuff…focus will be on SAT2, AP tests and keeping up with classwork. Can’t wait for junior year to be finished!</p>
.</p>