<p>Son just got his – 233, that’s enough for Connecticut!!!
CR: 73
M: 80
W: 80
Elated here that we do not have to wait to hear what is the cut-off for NMSF.
Best of luck everyone!</p>
<p>Barfly, I admit it. You caught me in an estimate. Sorry. Let me rephrase:</p>
<ol>
<li>NMSC selects Y% of graduating senior class in each state as NMSF. Y = [16000/(# of graduating seniors in US)]x 100 is a number between 0.484 and 0.53. Y changes a bit from year to year, and depends on what number NMSC uses as the total number of graduating seniors. There are about 3.3 million graduating seniors in 2014 and 3 million public school graduating seniors. I don’t know if NMSC uses one of these 2 numbers, or adds in private school kids and not home schoolers or what source of data they use, so I have been using .5 as an approximation. Easy to remember.</li>
</ol>
<p>This uses your method but a different order of operations so there is one constant.</p>
<p>If I weren’t so lazy, I’d look up how many NMSF there are for our state in the NMSC annual report and check our state DPI website for number of graduating seniors to figure out what numbers NMSC isusing.</p>
<p>201 in PA (CR 61 M 68 W 72) a little upset, but it’s my fault that I didn’t study so…just hoping for commended student at this point</p>
<p>I got a 218, which should be enough in MI (last year cutoff 210), but its kinda surprising considering i got a 2360 SAT in November. Is there any difference between getting a 218 or a 236 if both are good enough for NMSF?</p>
<p>Audrae, one or two minor mistakes in any one section can be costly. For example, I remember that two in writing (Saturday) cost 8 full points. Sounds like you made a few of those costly mistakes. I’m glad your 218 will make it in your state, because the 2360 really says you deserve it. The good news is, that will count for your SAT follow up! Cautious congrats!</p>
<p>Celeste, thanks again for the info. I’m really starting to process this data, and getting excited about the possibilities. Now…let’s hope for no huge upsets for a second year running!</p>
<p>Thanks PAMom, but what i was really wondering was if there would have been any benefit to getting a higher score. Like if I got, say, a 236 instead of a 218 would it have made any difference?</p>
<p>From my understanding Audrae, once you are over the cut, it really doesn’t matter by how much.</p>
<p>(Someone please correct me if that’s not the case!)</p>
<p>Delaware - 198</p>
<p>M: 70
W: 70
CR: 58</p>
<p>Yes, if your junior year PSAT score is at least (doesn’t have to be more than) your state’s target score, you are a National Merit Semi-Finalist. You can be tied or way above, makes no difference, you’re in all the same.</p>
<p>Looking back over the previous target scores reported, at least in CT, last year’s cut-off of 221 was tied for the highest score ever for our state. My son, like so many on here, took the PSAT last year as a sophomore and is adament that this year’s exam was harder – although he did do better (220 last year, 233 this year, but he studied this year). Our guess is that the Class of 2015 level will be 2 points lower than the Class of 2014 (so 219 in CT).</p>
<p>We’ll know more when state specific data comes back in February, but I agree somewhat with Connect. I don’t want to get anyone too excited about actual drops, but I think many states will at least stay the same. I made predictions just for fun, and I do think a few states might go up, but not those that had the biggest jumps last year. </p>
<p>I like thinking the test was possibly harder, as that can’t hurt those of us waiting. It’s going to be a while.</p>
<p>I hope these predictions are correct! Just a question, though – even if this year’s test was more difficult, wouldn’t they have accounted for that with an easier curve?</p>
<p>Son just got his score
TN - 231</p>
<p>Thank goodness that is over!
SAT, you’re up next.</p>
<p>Md - 226</p>
<p>cr:74
m:78
w:74</p>
<p>Sorry, Celeste, I see now what you are doing. I was thinking state percentiles, but that is dependent upon the number of students who take the test in each state. So in some states you have to be in the upper one-half of one percent of test-takers, while in other states you can be in the top 3% of test takers. You are looking at it from the perspective of the percent of total students per state - approximately 0.5% from each state. I get it now!</p>
<p>luvmygirls, that’s an interesting question - “If this year’s test was more difficult, wouldn’t they have accounted for that with an easier curve?” That makes sense to me. But last year I thought every state’s cutoff went up except for LA which I think stayed the same. Seems like the “curve” should make the cutoffs more consistent. Maybe it’s actually not so much a “curve” as just a way to score the Wednesday, Saturday, and Alternate versions of the tests so that there is no advantage to one day over the other?</p>
<p>One thing also to keep in mind is that the percentiles are not actually for the 2013 test. They are based on the 2012 test. I think the state data will actually be based on the 2013 test rather than the 2012 test, so that may be enlightening.</p>
<p>I don’t know if I agree with the lack of advantage statement, though I know that is the intent. And here’s some speculation, that may be some “sour grapes”, so feel free to tear it apart if it’s not sound. But in the past few years, it seems that the grading is more generous on the Wednesday sitting. And one could argue perhaps that less kids do well, so maybe it’s harder. However, if you are the kid that makes only careless mistakes, you may find your overall score is lower on the Saturday sitting.</p>
<p>One possible explanation might be that many schools administer the Wednesday sitting to entire junior classes, while the Saturday sitting is more self selective. </p>
<p>You can look at the scoring data yourself on the various reports, but a tangible case in point is the writing subtest, where I remember that 2 wrong on Saturday earned a 72, and 2 wrong on Wednesday a 74. And those 2 points for NMS could make all the difference.</p>
<p>As for last year possibly being easier, I have data that might support that, but I believe that possibility only affects the more average students, not the top tails.</p>
<p>Thanks, Barfly. That makes sense. And yes, PAMom 21, I see what you mean. My daughter tested on Saturday. She made only 1 error on the writing (careless, which hurts.) That brought her to a 770. 30 points for one question. Ouch. Had she gotten that one right, her score here in PA would be 220- which would have made us both a little less nervous about the cutoff.</p>
<p>That’s actually pretty standard for the last question Luvmygirls, especially in math or writing. 3 points is not bad at all! Look at the drop for TWO wrong in writing. It goes from 77 down to 72!! Last year for the Saturday test, one wrong in writing dropped you back to 75. It kills me that last year my son had one wrong, but this year two. Those extra FIVE points would be a nice cushion! Two wrong on Wednesday would have boosted him by 2 points overall.</p>
<p>I know the “experts” set these scales, but depending on how many mistakes you make and where…one more in any subject can lower you as much as 5 points!</p>
<p>PAMom21 are you suggesting that if we have a child that is known to make careless mistakes we should have them test on Wednesday? My D’s school only offers the PSAT on Saturdays but I have no problem having her take the test at a different school if it would be to her advantage.</p>
<p>Is that even possible? We are absolutely stuck with the Saturday test date here. I do think if the kid is a candidate for 80’s, and likely to make a mistake here and there, that Wednesday might be more favorable.</p>