It’s about that time again! Anyone ready to start analyzing state data from College Board in an effort to try to predict the new state cutoffs for National Merit Semifinalists from the class of 2016? Class of 2015 parents turned out to be pretty accurate - maybe some of them will share their expertise!
when will we know the cutoff? not til september right?
Right. When homeschool “principals” start getting the letters stating that their students made the cut, they post it on CC. Eventually the cutoff scores can be deciphered. But prior to actually knowing the cut, parents usually start predicting! We were pretty close last year!
NY and MA cutoff predictions? MA - last year it was a 223 and im hoping it will be a 222 this year
If that’s what score you need, @puppylove97, then I hope you get it.
Once the commended cutoff is made public (is that in April?), predictions get crazy. I found a trend for Texas. FWIW, if the commended cutoff goes down, then the Texas NMSF cutoff NEVER goes up.
@barfly i thought commended and semi-finalist cuts were made at the same time
No, the top 50,000 scorers are notified. Of them, about 16,000 will make semifinalist, and the others will be commended. Once students are notified that they are in the top 50,000, they will start posting their scores on CC and that’s how we all figure out what the commended score will be for the year. That is in April? Not sure. But Semifinalists don’t find out until September. Schools are notified and told to not yet release the names to the press, but many schools misread and think they cannot release the names even to the students themselves. In any event, the students who are notified one way or another will post on CC whether they are or are not semifinalists, along with their scores, and a list of state cutoffs will start to take shape. Homeschoolers are notified directly as their students’ principals, so many post the info when they receive it and that helps tie down the cutoff scores.
Any guess what the commended score will be this year? I know my son won’t make semifinalist but hoping he’ll at least make commended.
Make sure you convert your predictions to the new psat format
Quote from TestRocker:
“Overall score reporting will also be different on the new PSAT. Each of the PSATs three tests (Reading Test, Writing and Language Test, and Math) will be scored on a range from 10-40. The two areas, Evidence-Based Reading and Writing & Math will each be scored from 200-800. The redesigned PSATs composite score will range from 400 to 1600.”
So the NMCS cutoff will definitely be above 240!
@Andre3200 the new scoring kicks in for the 2015 test. The Class of 2016 National Merit program is based on tests taken in 2014, so the old scoring applies.
Will a score of 223 in California qualify me for semi-finalist?
It’ll be close, but you might make semi-finalist.
What’s the commended cut off score?
Go to this thread. You will find Semifinalist cutoff for so many states. Thanks to WRUAustin.
I need to be put in a medically-induced coma until September! 
I saw that someone mentioned VA, but didn’t post dats. Here it is.
2008/495/477/424/52,431
2009/458/ 623/343/53,610
2010/599/750/721/54,159
2011/405/458/440/51,326
2012/667/696/631/50,115
2013/550/864/337/50,608
2014/503/944/488/49,779
I don’t think my daughter made the cutoff. We live in rural VA and northern VA raises the scores:(. She got a 216. She got a 2200 on the SAT & a 36 on the ACT…
@jdcsbmom, I completely understand. I live in Northern VA, but go to one of the least rigorous schools there and received a 213…definitely in the top 5 scores in my school, but not good enough compared to the more competitive schools (I’m looking at you, TJ, haha).
miss you, @barfly
Testmasters have weighed in on the subject, making them the second test-prep company to predict much lower state cut-off scores for the class of 2017: http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
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