Preliminary UC Freshman Acceptance Rates, Fall 2018

15.2% UCB
41.4% UCD
28.8% UCI
14.1% UCLA
70.7% UCM
41.5% UCR
30.3% UCSD
32.4% UCSB
48.1% UCSC

Calculated from:
https://ucop.edu/institutional-research-academic-planning/_files/factsheets/2018/admissions/freshman-admissions-by-campus-and-residency.pdf
https://ucop.edu/institutional-research-academic-planning/_files/factsheets/2018/fall-2018-applications-table1.pdf

Sorry, messed that one up. Should be:

51.3% UCR

Wow the number of admits went way down at many places ie Berkeley and Irvine, and UCLA somewhat. It will be interesting to see what the yield numbers look like. I’ll assume that waitlisted people who are accepted count as accepted too? I wished there was a separate list for accepted without waitlist, just to be transparent as to how universities handle yields.

The biggest change for this year appears to be at UCI. Applications up by 11.5%, yet admits down by 12.1%. Acceptance rate dropped from 36.6% last year to 28.8% this year, so a net change of -7.8 percentage points.

You had to expect that UCI would admit fewer students after last year’s overenrollment debacle. I didn’t expect them to cut admits by that much though.

Second biggest drop of 6.4% at UC Riverside and still the fastest growing UC in rapid expansion mode. Thanks for those stats!

The most interesting development in UC admissions this year may not be any changes in freshman acceptance rates. We may have seen the beginning of a long-term shift in focus from freshman admission to transfer admission. See this thread:

http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/university-california-general/2090535-uc-admits-a-record-number-of-californians-for-fall-2018.html

It’s well known that the most popular UC campuses are becoming increasingly inaccessible. There are no easy solutions to this issue; campuses like Berkeley or UCLA, for example, are already crowded, and have little or no room to expand. It’s possible that the only practical way to make large numbers of new slots available at these campuses is by taking 4-year slots and converting them into a pair of 2-year slots.

Transfer students definitely the future trend. May have to create another UC location (like CSU’s doing now) as well although I don’t see that happening for a long while.

Let’s create a CC and call it UCM so we can keep our promise of a UC admittance for the top ~ 10%. Nice.

If this is intended to knock UCM’s relatively high (70.7%) acceptance rate, then here are some acceptance rate numbers from just 10 years ago (Fall 2008) for comparison:

84% UCR
72% UCSC

Acceptance rates will likely stay fairly high at UCM for the foreseeable future, because the campus is actually able to grow in order to accommodate demand. And that’s a good thing – you could even say that is "nice. It is also something that is becoming increasingly impossible at UC campuses located in urban coastal areas (i.e. most of them), due to the stratospheric costs of real estate.

@corbett…acceptance rate will of course decrease at Merced as it grows and continues up the ranks. Any future UC locations will be inland (and should be…in underrepresented areas) as well as no more coastal or “big city” locations available…and yes, they will fill up fast!

I think the one “big city” that could potentially gain a lot from future UC expansion is … Sacramento. But of course, Sacramento is inland.

UC Davis has six professional schools. Two of them (Medicine and Nursing) are already located at the UCD Health Campus in Sacramento. And UCD just announced a major expansion project (“Aggie Square”) at that campus. It seems likely that the Sacramento Campus will have undergraduates, as well as grad students, in the future.

Other than Sac State, the Greater Sacramento metro area doesn't have a lot in terms of higher education. They would love to have as much UCD presence as possible. And while the Health Campus may be running out of room, there are several other large, undeveloped sites in the Sacramento area that have been offered as potential locations for UCD expansion.

Over the long term, UCD may be in a position to build an academic empire in the Greater Sacramento metro area. In contrast, it’s hard to see a lot of future expansion at the traditional “big campuses” of Berkeley and UCLA.

@corbett…Davis expanding in the greater Sacramento metro area sounds like a real possibility. Don’t think much growth capacity left at any of the other UC’s except Riverside (now at 25k students) and Merced. Once they reach capacity, other locations may need to be considered. Sacramento area may fit that bill in the future.

UCSD has some room. They are now targeting 40,000 and maybe 45,000. But that’s the only coastal UC that is likely to see significant growth in the foreseeable future. Most of the growth is going to be at UCD, UCR, and especially UCM.

The potential wild card here (in my opinion) is Sacramento. UCD already has a significant presence in Sacramento; the recently announced “Aggie Square” project at the Health campus is going to build on that, and there are still more great opportunities available:

To me, the old railyard – which is within walking distance of Downtown, Old Sacramento, the Capitol, and the Sacramento River – seems like maybe the single most attractive undeveloped location in California where you could realistically put a UC satellite campus. If I were UCD, I would try to put one there as part of the upcoming redevelopment effort. And the City of Sacramento would cheerfully cooperate.