I got a 1500 (SI = 224). I recently moved to IL so I have no idea how competitive my score is for this state. Would I be guaranteed NMSF or am I borderline?
Has anyone tried this?
While we are at comparing this year’s scores to past year’s…
now that I have 3 section percentiles, (I don’t know how I missed it before)
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19165522/#Comment_19165522
if I take these 3 “user percentiles” and go to past year’s data,
http://www.bernardsboe.com/UserFiles/Servers/Server_3096886/File/Jill Shadis/Ridge Counseling/Standardized Testing/Understanding 2014 PSAT-NMSQT Scores.pdf
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2vOnl4vyKt7Mm0wYm80LUtqaW8/view?pref=2&pli=1
and find a section score (average, if there is a range) for that percentile, I expect to find corresponding past year’s score.
I think the resulting score should agree with “concordance table” score.
What else can the concordance table be?
But it does not agree.
So I agree that the concordance table is funky and “preliminary” but I think the %iles they are giving us is also “preliminary.”
What do you get for yours if you use %iles and 2014 data file?
I get
2015% 2014 2013 Concordance T('15)
R 92 64 64 60
W 96 67 68 63
M 99 77 77 77
SI 205 208 209 200
@jake071999 You got 1500 out of 1520 and 224 out of 228. Congratulations. You are NMSF any state. Hope you have already old SAT > 2000. Otherwise you need to take new SAT. Other than that, get off College confidential and enjoy your life.
219 gonna make it in NJ?
I just want to point out that if you click the little “i” icon next to the percentiles, it says the “percentiles are derived via a research study sample of U.S. students in the 11th grade, weighted to represent …” So, all the percentiles that we are reading so much into are based on a sample that is clearly much smaller than 2 million kids (and less motivated to do well).
It is likely that the preliminary concordance tables are also based on the percentiles from this “research study” (though some people see funky differences indicating they may be based on different data sets). The actual percentiles that come out (April?) could be very different from what the score report shows. In fact, I would not be surprised if 120 and 121 (maybe even 122) turn out to be not a sure thing in all states. I still agree with earlier speculation that they made the test too easy at the high end with not enough granularity.
If someone has access to the list the GCs got that includes SI percentiles, it would be useful to know whether there is any text on that report that says the percentiles are preliminary or based on a research sample.
College Board tweeted 2 hours ago that 4mm students now have access to their PSAT/NMSQT shoes - understand that some are freshman and sophomores, but it seems like junior year participation must be well over 1.5mm
I got a 1370 and a 206 SI, I live in maryland which has a relatively high cutoff, do you think I have a chance? It says I was in the 99th percentile so I’m hopeful, I’d love to be at least be a semifinalist!
I see that a bunch of you all are putting with your scores if you got an email about TASP. What does that email look like, I did not get any emails with the specific phrase TASP in it but I did get an email on Dec 17th inviting me to Columbia University’s summer acedemic program, does that mean I got the email? Please respond, thanks!
@clarebeatrice It’s the Telluride Summer Program - a summer seminar program that is highly competitive and provides a college seminar type of experience for rising seniors.
Who knows what the cut off will be, but considering your state usually has a high one I wouldn’t get your hopes up. But good luck! @clarebeatrice
Will a 1470, 221 SI make NMSF in CA?
@appgodxoxo I just checked your posting history and you’ve asked that same exact question more than 17x over the last 4 days. NO ONE KNOWS.
Where is the moderator on this site? Isn’t it against forum rules to continuously post the same thing over and over?
Edited to add -according to this post you are already a student at Stanford. So you are lying about being a Junior:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/18588998/#Comment_18588998
@fallenchemist Please note this poster has broken multiple forum rules
@appgodxoxo Probably so, but nobody knows. I think the day is coming when only a perfect score will win in California. Don’t know what they do when the top three percent make a perfect score while the rest of the state can barely read.
@suzyQ7 Haha… that’s really weird. Maybe it’s for his sister or something?
For Sister
IL
Total Score: 1490
Evidence-Based Reading and Writing: 730
Math: 760
Reading: Whatever -5 is
Writing and Language: 38
Math: 38
Index: 222
Did not receive an email
@GMTPlus7, thanks for posting your tables. I have a question about the second table in your post (copied below for reference) Why are only even numbered Selection Indexes included in your list? Just curious …
There are indeed odd numbered SI (my son has one). But my spreadsheet calculation of possible subscore combinations was getting huge & ungainly, so I kept it simple w whole-numbered math subscores.
For odd numbered SI, just interpolate.
Thanks, @GMTplus7. I appreciate the explanation and the effort you put into helping us analyze these scores.
My thoughts of the preoccupation on figuring out the magic percentile cutoff-- I think it’s a red herring.
The bottom line is that NM Corp and the College Board are politically savvy enough to realize that if there is not adequate NM finalist representation in each state, then the students & schools lose interest in the SAT and will defect to the ACT.
This is how I think it’s done:
NM Corp determines roughly how many NMSF they want in each state (based on proportional population representation), then they simply take the top selection index scorers in each state to meet the state’s quota. It doesn’t matter what the score percentile is.
@GMTplus7 What you think is exactly right. They are pretty transparent about it. In a few states scoring the in 96th percentile is enough for NMSF.
The key is to understand where the cutoff score has been in one’s state in prior years in terms of percentile. In Mississippi it’s been in the 97.5th percentile, but last year jumped into the 98th percentile. Being aware of this gives one a good chance to predict one’s chance of making NMSF. But ultimately about 1.6 million people take the test and a number reflecting approximately the top one percent of graduates is going to make NMSF in each state, even if they have to go to the 95th percentile to get there!