So a serious question about “chances” and how to categorize schools. I’m not trying to argue with anyone, I’ve followed CC long enough to know that lots of the people commenting here know more than I do. I’m just trying to wrap my head around this.
D is from one of the 7 states with 0 students in Amherst’s most recently published class. So I figure that’s in her favor. I’m 90% sure there is at least one state resident who is a current student but I don’t remember where I saw that.
Her 32 is the average ACT for that class, which is where she is right now, hopefully she will improve a bit. They do superscore, so I think her odds are pretty good to be above average test scores, especially this year. I know this in and of itself isn’t a huge bump, I’m sure they reject 36’s every year. But I think at least it is neutral to slightly positive.
Regular admit is 10%.
ED admit is 36%. I’m going to take a rough guess and say that 60 of the ED’s were athletes, which drops the ED % to 28%. Even if you say 100 ED’s were athletes/Questbridge/Legacy/Donor it is still a 20% admit rate. I would think that would make 20% the minimum % of unhooked students they take during ED.
Wouldn’t it make sense to lump in in with other 20-25% acceptance schools if that is her ED choice? That would put ED at Amherst in the vicinity of Vassar or Colgate RD (23% RD acceptance rate).
Doing the same thing for Hamilton, it’s a bit easier to figure becase ED II has a 32% acceptance rate. I’m guessing most athletes/legacy/ect. are in ED (48%) not ED II. RD is 15%, but it seems more logical to lump Hamilton ED in with 30-35% RD schools, such as BMC and Macalaster.
Also re: Bates, I figured since it’s scores are a bit lower it probably gets more kids with lower scores giving it a shot. If you have a 28 ACT and were doing one reach, it makes more sense to try for Bates than Amherst if that makes sense. So I’m guessing they might have more “auto-reject” apps than some of the other schools with a similar acceptance rate. But I could be wrong.
Does this make sense? Am I missing something?
Also, I don’t know that it REALLY matters, beyond me wrapping my head about what her chances are.
But if her ED chance is closer to the RD 10% at Amherst and not 20-25%, maybe it makes sense tactically to ED to a school like Middlebury or Bates where they seem to REALLY love ED. Because as I said at some point, really she would be happy with almost any of these schools. If you told her you would guarantee her admission into one of her top 15 but she couldn’t pick which one, I think she would take your offer.