Thank you to everyone for your responses!
Does he have a good sense of what direction he wants to take and what he would like his future career to be? Sometimes schools that are not just looking for the ābestā students can have tremendous programs for those who are very good students and self directed. That has been our experience with our youngest D.
Vwlizard - bingo! I went to a prestige school on athletic scholarship (only two in the top 10 ranked schools offer them) and was ill prepared against a lot of prep school kids who were really advanced. My first two years were miserable. I eventually caught up from my two year gap from other students, but it was painful and should have taken offers from other Power 5 schools - flagships with lots of academic choices. My school really only prepared you to go to more school, which most of the class did, including me, but it was limiting for a poor person like me. The school choice today doesnāt look like a mistake, but I would have taken a different graduate school and career path had I been far more practical and grounded than I was. Go where you will perform well.
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This is a great point.
When I was interviewing the head of school for a high school our son was thinking about attending, Iād mentioned that I wasnāt swayed by where there grads went to college. Afterall, that was their job, so I thought. He politely corrected me. He said their job was not to get kids into college, but to get kids out of college. He went on to say that every year students from all walks start at places like Pomona, Chicago, Wash U, etc. only to drop out because they arenāt prepared. Well over 90% of their grads had undergraduate degrees in 5 years or less. Thatās where he went.
Part of that preparation is simply that the student is self motivated and driven. If not, the whole college endeavor can potentially be a waste of money and time.
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If the first choice safety school is a good fit and is affordable, there is no problem with college selection. One application, one admission, done.
However, he should try to do well in high school in order to be prepared for any college. Also, poor academic performance in senior-year in-progress courses, particularly if there are any D or F grades or a very large GPA drop, may be looked at unfavorably when the college he matriculates to gets his final high school transcript. Poor academic performance in senior-year in-progress courses could result in rescission of the admission offer.
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If your son loves the less selective college, let him go there. Itās his lifeā¦
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Well Iāll play a little devilās advocate. I donāt necessarily disagree that this is ultimately your childās life and if heās happy with a school he can get into and afford, thatās a good thing. But itās pretty intriguing that the two schools he is interested in have a less than 10% admission rate and a greater than 75% rate. Those schools will have VASTLY different student bodies. It does sound based on your description that perhaps the more selective school may be too competitive, but I wonder why he isnāt looking at some more middle ground schools. I have a friend whose daughter attended a school that was far less selective than she was able to get into, she had put herself through a lot of stress in high school and wanted out of that (seemed reasonable to me). But she ended up transferring after freshman year to a more competitive schoolāshe was very underwhelmed at her initial choice, particularly the students in her classes and the level of insights and discussions in the classes,etc. Not saying this would happen to everyone, just something to think about. And yes itās his choice, but you do have an opportunity for guidance and to talk about and maybe visit more of a range of schools. Sometimes people need a little nudge, and he may ultimately be grateful for that nudge. But in the end, if he gets in to this less selective choice and heās happy, thatās not necessarily terrible!!
PS I also am one who thinks that putting a decent amount of effort into college essays ends up being a good exerciseāgood soul searching, good writing practice, something a lot of kids end up being proud of in the end. Iām not saying he should spend every weekend all weekend polishing essays to the exclusion of social lifeāabsolutely not and I fully agree that social life is extra important right nowābut I think blowing off that experience almost entirely will mean heāll miss out on a good growth and learning experience. Any chance heās just feeling lazy and wants to avoid the essay writing and thatās why heās chosen this shoo-in sure-thing school? To me, that would be a poor decision (although I agree at this stage of the game, weād like to see kids take ownership and self-directā¦.you arenāt going to college with him to keep him motivated!)
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This probably depends quite a bit on major. My sonās final 3 school choices admitted 95%, 50% and 15% respectively. He chose the latter, but only because it was on the West Coast and sunny. The biggest difference between the most selective programs and the lesser ones is retention. Thereās a minimum level for all engineering programs, set by ABETā¦hard. No doubt he would have done fine at the 95% school. Other majors may vary as theyāre more subjective and part of the stimulation comes from classmates.
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This is a great point that I donāt see mentioned very often in the context of high-achieving students. On one hand, many have been grinding for 4 years in high school and want a break from the constant stress; on the other hand, being surrounded by less academically-inclined peers can be a disappointing experience, as you say. My D22 is in exactly this position - she wants to go to a āGT collegeā b/c the only classes she has really enjoyed in HS have been in the gifted and talented program (in one non-honors class where she was initially excited about the material, she finally decided to stop engaging when it became clear that neither the other students nor the teacher cared about any of it). But she also wants to avoid high-stress, competitive environments. I doubt thereās any magical land where everyone is bright and highly motivated but also stress-free, so itās a trade-off, but maybe one we should think about more carefully.
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This is much rarer at the collegiate level, even the least selective schools. Students pay to be there. That in and of itself refines the experience.
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In the works of the Beatles (sort of) āSpeaking words of wisdom, let him be.ā
Best of luck to you and your son through your journey.
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There is. An Honors College at a large public university. 
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I would hope so, but honestly that wasnāt my experience 25+ yrs ago at a solid-but-far-from-elite private school. Other than those in my interdisciplinary honors cohort that I ran across pretty often in humanities courses, there was quite a bit of student apathy (especially in the business school). Professors were typically very good, but engaging discussions were rare. I went on to a strong professional school and ended up with a good career outcome, but I have often wondered whether attending a more selective school would have been a more rewarding experience. Not that any of this baggage should impact my own kidsā decisions (or the OPās decision of course) - just saying that I can see how one might end up regretting the choice to attend a less selective school.
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What is a GT college? Do you mean gifted and talented? There are kids getting full rides at Podunk U. They are probably in the honors college and are likely just as GT as a kid at CalTech. Honestly, I donāt think there is such a thing as a GT college. Degrees of selectivity and levels of prestige, sure.
Colleges, very generally speaking, are self selective. Those kids chose to be there. Students can find their people at most colleges.
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Yes, she means āgifted and talentedā college. Admittedly, thatās a very broad oversimplification - as you say, there are definitely gifted students at Podunk U that are just as capable as anyone at a Top-Whatever school. Itās an issue of critical mass - are there enough of those students in a given school cohort to make most, or at least many, of your classes truly engaging and thought-provoking? In my own experience at a less-selective school described above, the answer was generally No, but I can see how an Honors College or other school-within-a-school program could achieve that. (The devil is in the details there, as weāve had a hard time deciphering exactly how different Honors programs are organized, but thatās another discussion.)
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Another discussion indeed, but since you mentioned it, you might want to get a copy of the book āInside Honors 2020-2021: Ratings and Reviews of 40 Public University Honors Programsā
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Perhaps show her this thread so that she doesnāt refer to college as GT anymore. She will get more than a bit of side-eye, trust me.
I totally get wanting to go to a college with a lot of other smart students who are academically inclined. My eldest absolutely looked for that. But trust me, there are plenty of smart students who are more interested in saving money, or who attend CC and transfer, or who just want to party, or who, maybe as first-gen/URM kids, came into college ill-prepared for the rigor, as @willowglen experienced.
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Ha, I donāt think she would ever say that in public - she would probably be irritated that I even mentioned it on an anonymous web forum. 
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Going to school in Durham was life altering, so it wasnāt all bad. And my record could fool a lot of people - especially with national performances in athletics. The athletic department didnāt have to push admissions because my grades were fairly high and scores were good, too. But not having any parental guidance, I didnāt take calculus in high school and was woefully underprepared to take the honors calc I was foolishly put into because my math scores were high. I was way underprepared, and really struggled, and the school didnāt offer pre calc so I could refresh my skills. I am not a URM, but was the quintessential mismatch student and it impacted by course of study and career. I had poor study skills, too, never having a notebook or taking notes. Nothing keeps you away from STEM majors at a very intense and competitive school like being underprepared. I ended up ok but years after finishing at a T14 law school at the very top of class and a law review editor and all of that nonsense, I completed an aptitude test prior to going into the executive ranks which questioned why I ever went to law school. That test nailed it - it was a path of least resistance for me and while I have nothing to be ashamed of - it reminded me of why being underprepared can close so many options. I would have been far better off at a place like University of Iowa (I was offered a full ride there) where I could have incrementally caught up and would have had a broader choice of majors, all without being a social outcast because I was poor. I have a verification method here. My identical twin - a very good athlete at the highest of levels- multiple All American in D1 - went to a good public flagship and ended up majoring in math, at a school which took step by step math instruction seriously. He intuitively made a better choice. An econometric PhD. No dark clouds - I have done well even though my academic record is way less positive than it appears, but notions of prestige donāt matter much when it comes to doing the work effectively. I wish my immature self knew better.
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It may depend on factors like her major and goals. Going to college as a pre-med or a major with many pre-meds (e.g. biology) increases the chance of being in a high-stress competitive environment. So does going to a college with a highly competitive secondary admission process to get into the desired major (e.g. Texas A&M for CS and some engineering majors).