I sent you a DM.
hard to know for sure without more specifics about the schools and his stats - but, Iād let him drive this decision - as long as you are confident the less selective school is a good fit and will provide the college experience heās looking for. In my experience most HS seniors have no clue what college is like. As a parent, with more experience, you gotta help weed out bad choices and IMHO leave the rest to them.
Neither of my kids didnāt wanted to apply to any UCs because of the essays and more involved ap. They didnāt want to do much test prep and didnāt want to burn several Saturdays striving for a higher SAT/ACT score. One went to a CSU - Chico - and the other a CO public - Ft Lewis . One graduated a few years ago and is self sufficient and in a career job he enjoys. The other graduates this December and is planning to go to grad school of some sort. Both got a great education and had a fantastic (for them) college experience.
If he were mine, I encourage your kid to broaden his ap pool and apply to 5-7 schools, across a big spectrum, see where he gets in and then pick the one thatās the best fit.
.One thing Iād add - most kids change majors more than once - so donāt get too hung up on program details. Maybe your kid will switch, maybe not, but iād encourage you to help your kid find a good overall fit (or two or 3).
Good luck