UC Davis - is it even worth applying

Gonna get straight to the point here

Current HS Senior, OOS student (VA)

Intended major/area of study: Biology, concentration on wildlife/evolutionary/ecology

Heard they only take into account grades 10/11 so only those two were used in these calcs
AP and Honors courses were both included under “honors” in the calcs
All calculated using Rogerhub

3.17 weighted
3.67 unweighted
3.50 weighted & capped

SAT/ACT: doesn’t matter apparently

EC’s: probably the best part about my app, all strong with a focus on my area of interest

LOR#1 ~10/10(very good, second best part of my app)

LOR#2 ~5/10 (average)

Essays: Pretty good I would say maybe a 7-8/10

Are my chances worth the time it would take to fill out the app and the $70 fee?

Thank you

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/infocenter/freshman-admissions-summary indicates that frosh applicants for 2019 to UCD with weighted-capped GPA of 3.40-3.79 had a 9% admission rate.

Also, UCs do not provide need-based financial aid to non-California residents, so if it is not affordable at list price, you would be aiming for the few top-end merit scholarships which would be even more unlikely if you are in the lower end of the campus’ GPA range. UCD does not use letters of recommendation.

OOS HS honors classes do not get the extra honor points in the UC GPA calculation, only AP/IB. As stated above by @ucablumnus, with your Capped weighted GPA around 3.50, your chances are slim even with a high OOS admission rate. You still need to be a competitive applicant.

Based on the 2020 Freshman profile GPA data, your GPA is well below the 25th percentile.

**2020 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range: **
UCD: 4.11 (3.97-4.25)

If you cannot afford $65K/year to attend, then applying does not seem worth your time and the application fee.