Thats how it’s worked for the kids from D22’s high school last year. Acceptances from the deferred list trickled in a bit, but rejections were all at once at the end.
Edited to add: they weren’t all rejections in the last batch (my cousin’s in state kid was accepted in the last round), but that appeared to be the only time rejections went out for the deferred kids. IDK. It’s a mystery…
do we think the first wave will be 2/18
Historically, the last wave hasn’t been all rejections, but the “last wave” decisions are more heavily weighted towards waitlist and rejections. Remember, the 2021-2022 CDS stated that there were almost 18,000 waitlist offers (22.5% of all apps) with about 13,000 accepting their place on the WL.
@collegejunior16 I’m now thinking Friday 3/4 is probably the best bet for a 1st wave, but 2/18 is certainly a slim possibility. Just speculation, because no one knows for sure.
Hmm, interesting. What led to the change?
(still hoping for a 2/18 wave 
)
Some posters here shared a few anecdotes about speaking with AO’s. One poster shared that there would be no wave until April, which I don’t believe. 
I’m trying to be conservative now, so I don’t get into trouble. 
Ha ha! I understand.
Although, if we do see a 2/18 wave - I’ll say “Sushiritto was right all along” 
Watch it be 2/25. 
Do you know the acceptance rate for those who are postponed
There are experts here but the simple math is 50,000 apps and roughly 10,000 acceptances to come. Then overlay that with domicile, major and sex.
How many do you think were accepted during the EA round?
for RD maybe, I highly doubt a lot of EA postponed applicants will hear then
In the past few years, Michigan accepted roughly a total of 16,000 apps. A couple years ago, an insider to the proceedings told me that during EA, Michigan accepts 7,500-8,000 apps.
ETA: That was before Covid and the late January release.
No one really knows for sure how many were accepted OR how many were denied. Nor how many of the RD apps get accepted. Wild (but somewhat informed) speculation?
55K EA apps. 7K accepted and 5K rejected. Of the 25K RD apps, say 2.5K are accepted (10% acceptance rate). That leaves 6.5K for the 42K postponed. So, 15% acceptance rate?
I’d personally be telling my D to portal watch on those three (3) Fridays: 2/18, 2/25 and 3/4. I’ll let @DadOfJerseyGirl be the bookie and establish the odds. 
I thought the due date to send LOCI is Feb 21 then how can we expect the result before that. Please correct me if I’m wrong…
Best indicator of decisions out has been the forum here…You quickly see an explosion in posts 
I think that’s pretty close. The overall acceptance rate was 20% for 2021-2022. And I believe the acceptance rate during RD is roughly 5% +/- less than the overall acceptance rate.
But the bigger question is who will they be looking more for during RD based on yield-to-date projections. Will “more than expected” in-state or OOS offers be sent out? 
The RD decisions (including those of deferred applicants) are on a rolling basis. So potentially, if there’s a 2/18 wave that could include deferred candidates. Submitting a LOCI is not mandatory but many (like my daughter) have already submitted one so they have the information they need to make a decision.
The LOCI isn’t required. Some kids get admitted without ever submitting one. They could make some admit decisions without waiting for the LOCI.
FWIW, the LOCI was due on 2/1 in 2020 and there was a wave of decisions issued on 1/31 so there is precedent for sending out decisions before the LOCI is due. That said, the LOCI was due on 2/20 in 2021 and there wasn’t a decision wave until early March. So, there is precedent for waiting too