According to IvyWise, 50% of early applicants get deferred to RD. EA admit rate is around ~20%. 70% chance you don’t get denied outright.
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Also the last day of January is Monday 1/31, which is a week from tomorrow — so maybe decisions will not be out this week, correct?
I don’t have the test flexible status tab… is that because you applied test optionally?
It would be a first if it came out on a Monday. It usually comes out on a Friday and sometimes a Wednesday.
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No. It will be Wed, Thursday or Friday with Vegas betting Friday is - 3:joy:
… 3:00 pm Eastern or close
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Highly unlikely - because a) UMich has released on Fridays and Wednesdays, never Mondays and b) schools with high EA deferral rates prefer to release on Friday afternoons so their admissions office does not have to field hundreds of calls from students and parents asking why? What can they do to get accepted? Etc.
The weekend gives people time to process, calm down, recalibrate. And most will decide to not call.
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will it say “rejected” in the portal if didn’t get in?
If EA gets deferred to RD, will it be more likely to get accepted In late March? or more likely to get rejected?
There are 3 EA outcomes: accept, postpone and rejection. All 50,000+ EA applicants don’t hang out here on CC. 
I don’t have the test flexible status tab… is that because you applied test optionally?
that is correct. I applied without sending my test scores.
This is my second go around on here. I have son who entered 2020, would that be S20? And I have a son who is eagerly waiting to hear this year. I have seen you and Knowsstuff on here 2 years ago too. You are both very knowledgeable, calming, and helpful. Thank you. Do you both have a 2020 and 2022 graduate?
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RD decisions have lately been timed with the Ross BBA decision dates, which are the following Fridays: 2/18, 3/18 and 4/15. Pre-Pandemic, the RD decision dates were Fridays on or about 2/1, 3/1 and 4/1.
Typically, the first RD date in February is all acceptances. The latter two release dates increasingly have more waitlisted and rejected applicants.
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My D18 will graduate Michigan this Spring. My D21 attends Cal Poly San Luis Obispo as a freshman.
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How do the RD waves work?
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That’s very kind. My son graduated last year and is working at a great job now in engineering.
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Odds it comes out Friday?
I think that is the most likely date given last year’s release date was also the last Friday of the month.
Not quite sure what you’re asking, but Michigan will usually release RD decisions in three RD waves, one in February, March and April. Typically, 99.99% of the RD/postponed applicants will hear a decision in those waves.
If you don’t hear a decision in February or March, then you’ll likely hear in April. I’d guess most of you, if postponed, will hear in February or March, based on CC history. Why? You skew higher than the typical applicant to Michigan. The April decisions are mostly waitlisted and rejections.
Here comes the disclaimer. One, in some very, very rare cases, an applicant may not hear a decision in those 3 waves. It has happened. I’m not sure why. It’s almost like they’ve “fallen through the cracks.” Or maybe there’s an issue with their app.
Two, applicants have heard outside or in between those three waves. Again, very rare. We’ve had a few weird single decisions on a Tuesday, or a Saturday, for example. I’m not sure if it’s one of the smaller schools, like SMTD, or not.
Having said all that, hopefully, you’ll all be accepted EA and then this thread will die a quiet death. 
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RD admit rate is usually 3-5% lower than EA, so it will be slightly more difficult to get admitted.
That’s true, and it’s because the postponed apps are joined by the “due February 1st” RD apps and become one larger pool of apps.