University of Pennsylvania Transfer Student Chances

I just finished my freshman year of college and am looking into what my odds would be of transferring to Penn for my junior and senior year. For one, does the school I’m currently at now hold great importance? I go to a small college in NYC as a commuter, and it doesn’t have the best reputation. I find the classes to be easier than what I took in high school, and most students here don’t care about school. All in all, the school is set up to cater to the needs of students who, for the most, struggled in high school, and I am quite the opposite. I attended the University of Michigan my first semester (Fall 2017), and decided on transferring out all too quickly due to personal reasons, (severe homesickness that turned into anxiety & depression). While I have the option to go back to Mich within a 2 year timespan, I think the distance will just be a problem again, and the same thing might happen. So, only a small possibility I’ll go back.

Nonetheless, I know I need more of a challenge and a better environment where I can grow personally & intellectually, and I don’t see that happening where I am. That’s why I’m looking into schools that are within 2-3 hours of NYC and have strong academics. Among them is Penn which I had the chance to walk around the other day, and really liked what I saw. I’d love to go back and get more of a feel, while classes are in session in the fall. I’m also looking into Temple, and would like to look into Villanova & maybe Wesleyan (CT) too. If any one can give me a feel of what my odds would be of being admitted, I’d really appreciate it.

Main reason why Penn tops my list right now is because they’re the only other school I’m aware of that has the major I planned to pursue at Michigan: Philosophy, Politics, & Economics

High School GPA: 94.13 (not sure how this translates on a 4.0 scale exactly). Magna Cum Laude
4 AP Courses
ACT was low, 26, but SAT was better: 1300 (still not Ivy high though). Also took a Subject Test in U.S. History and did fairly well.
I really slack in high school extracurriculars: was on a Varsity team for my senior year, but played soccer all 4 years outside of school with a local organization.
GPA from First Semester at Michigan: 3.92
EC’s at Mich: 2 student Orgs, one social & the other more advocacy
GPA from Second Semester at new school: 4.0
I’m apart of one club here right now (an ethnic one) and participated in intramural basketball

I know that this is only part of the admission decision, but I’d love to know where I stand for Penn or the other schools mentioned. Will the fact that I transferred in the first place from Michigan, a great school, to a small lesser known, “easy” school cause I was homesick, make me less of a competitive applicant? Should I just suck it up and head back to Ann Arbor to finish?

Thanks.